Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions July 31st 2024

Santiago Espinal looks to power Reds to sweep of Cubs

The forecast for Wednesday’s Cubs vs. Reds matchup calls for temperatures in the mid-90s and partly cloudy skies. This one is getting started at 7:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Reds are favored on the money line (-151), while the Cubs have a line of +128. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.

Chicago comes in with a record of 51-58, while the Reds are 52-55. Kyle Hendricks is starting for the Cubs, and he will be facing off against Nick Lodolo. Cincinnati has won two straight, and they are 4th in the NL Central, while the Cubs are 5th.

Chicago vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Cubs at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Wednesday, July 31st
• Betting Odds CIN -151 | CHC +128 O/U 9.5

The Cubs Can Win If…

Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Reds on the road. This year, he has made 14 starts and has a record of 2-9. Hendricks’ ERA is 6.95, and he has pitched much worse on the road, coming in with a 7.91 ERA compared to 6.53 at home. In his last outing, he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had a quality start vs. the Cardinals, going seven innings and not giving up a run. Hendricks has allowed at least two homers in three of his last four starts.

For the season, the Cubs are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 26th in the league. Their home and road splits are very similar, as they are averaging 4.2 runs per game on the road and 4.0 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting just .232, which is 18th in the league.

Chicago’s top power threats have been Isaac Paredes and Ian Happ, who are tied for the team lead with 16 homers. Happ’s 60 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and Paredes is 2nd with 55. Seiya Suzuki is also among the team’s top power threats, as he has 15 homers. Over his last eight games, Suzuki is batting .300 with two homers. Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger are both on three-game hitting streaks.

• The Cubs are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Cubs are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Chicago has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Cincinnati is starting left-hander Nick Lodolo vs. the Cubs today. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA. Lodolo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.11. Out of his 16 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts. Lodolo’s last outing came vs. the Rays, where he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. He has not taken a loss since June 30th.

Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ top hitters this season, batting .262 with a team-leading 18 homers and 45 RBIs. He has been even better of late, going 9/25 (.360) over his last six games. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario have also been key power sources for the Reds, with Steer having 15 homers and Candelario at 17.

Overall, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They are also slightly below average in terms of home runs and have a team batting average of just .230. Cincinnati’s team on-base percentage is also just 16th in the league.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Cincinnati has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money-line pick, we would be leaning toward the Reds to come out on top at home. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would be leaning toward the under. This is projected to be the 5th lowest-scoring game of the day, and the 3rd lowest in terms of hits. Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo has the 3rd best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

The Cincinnati Reds are determined to remain in the postseason race, setting their sights on completing a three-game series sweep against the Chicago Cubs. Key contributions from Santiago Espinal and Nick Martinez have been pivotal in their recent successes, reflecting the team’s resilience and unity.

The Reds’ Postseason Aspirations

With the belief that they still have a realistic shot at the postseason, the Reds are focusing on each game. Their 6-3 victory over the Cubs demonstrated their potential and competitive spirit. Espinal’s outstanding performance, which included a home run and falling just a triple short of the cycle, highlighted the depth and determination within the team.

Key Performances Drive Victory

Santiago Espinal’s Influence:
Espinal’s offensive showcase was crucial in the Reds’ triumph. His home run and overall performance were vital, underlining his commitment to the team’s postseason ambitions. “We just have to be present in the moment for each game,” Espinal emphasized, stressing the importance of team unity and focus.

Nick Martinez’s Relief Pitching:
Martinez provided four scoreless innings of relief, securing the win. His potential move to the starting rotation, especially after Frankie Montas’ trade, underscores his versatility and significance to the team. Martinez’s leadership by example is crucial as the Reds pursue their postseason goals.

Strategic Moves at the Trade Deadline

The Reds made calculated moves at the trade deadline, including trading Montas to Milwaukee and Lucas Sims to Boston. These trades brought in outfielder Joey Wiemer, pitcher Jakob Junis, and pitching prospect Ovis Portes, aligning with the Reds’ strategy of balancing immediate competitiveness with long-term growth.

Offensive Contributions

Tyler Stephenson’s three-hit game reinforced the Reds’ offensive strength. His optimism, “We have to keep believing in ourselves,” encapsulates the team’s determined mindset. With the Reds only five games out of the final wild-card spot, contributions from players like Stephenson are critical.

Cubs’ Forward-Looking Strategy

The Cubs, focusing on future prospects, traded reliever Mark Leiter Jr. to the Yankees for pitching prospect Jack Neely and infield prospect Benjamin Cowles. Cubs’ president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, emphasized a strategy aimed at building for the future rather than just accumulating assets for the present season.

Pitching Matchup: Hendricks vs. Lodolo

Kyle Hendricks (Cubs):
Hendricks, with a challenging season marked by a 2-9 record and a 6.95 ERA, faces a crucial start. His recent performance, a 6-0 loss against Kansas City, highlights the difficulties he has encountered. Historically, Hendricks has a mixed record against the Reds, standing at 8-6 with a 4.26 ERA in his career.

Nick Lodolo (Reds):
Lodolo, aiming to end a winless streak, brings a solid 8-3 record with a 3.45 ERA into the game. Despite his recent no-decisions, Lodolo’s performance against the Cubs this season has been strong, with a 2-0 record and consistent outings. His ability to perform under pressure will be crucial in securing the series sweep.

Conclusion

The Cincinnati Reds, led by standout performances from players like Santiago Espinal and Nick Martinez, are poised to sweep the Chicago Cubs and keep their postseason hopes alive. With strategic trades and a resilient team mindset, the Reds are focused on the present, determined to capitalize on every opportunity.

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