Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Elly De La Cruz, Reds look to steal another win from Pirates

There does appear to be a chance of light rain in Cincinnati on Saturday, where the Reds and Pirates face off at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is currently scheduled for 1:10 PM ET. SN PT is carrying this one on TV.

The Reds are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -122 compared to the Pirates at +103. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and Rhett Lowder is starting for the Reds, while the Pirates are going with Jared Jones. In the NL Central, the Reds are 4th, while the Pirates are 5th.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Pirates at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Saturday, September 21st
• Betting Odds CIN -122 | PIT +103 O/U 8.5

The Pirates Can Win If…

Jared Jones gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Reds on the road. So far this season, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 6-7 with an ERA of 3.85. Jones’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.15. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going four innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had put together a nice outing, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs. Jones has made 11 quality starts this season and is averaging 9.61 strikeouts per nine innings.

Over his last six games, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone 9/24 for the Pirates, but he has yet to hit a home run during that stretch. Bryan Reynolds is the Pirates’ top home run hitter this season and is batting .278 overall. Reynolds also leads the team with 85 RBIs. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz have also been big power threats, as they are 2nd and 3rd on the team in homers, respectively.

Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz have both been struggling at the plate of late, with Oneil going 3/10 in his last four games and Bryan De La Cruz going 2/14 in his last four games. The Pirates are hoping that Andrew McCutchen can get things going, as he is batting just .238 this season and has gone 1/6 in his last three games.

• The Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 2.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 2.6 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Rhett Lowder will be making his third start of the season for the Reds, and he has yet to allow an earned run. Lowder picked up a win in his first start of the season, going 5 innings and striking out 3. He followed that up with a no-decision against the Astros, and in that game, he went 6 1/3 innings and struck out 3. In his last outing, he took the loss against the Twins, giving up 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ most consistent hitters this season, batting .260 with a team-high 24 home runs and 70 RBIs, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. He also comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both are batting below .230 for the season.

Overall, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a pretty average home run hitting team this season and come into the game with a collective batting average of just .233. However, they have been swinging the bats better of late, as TJ Friedl has gone 9/21 in his last six games with two homers.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cincinnati has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For today’s Pirates and Reds matchup, our lean is to take the Reds to win straight-up. We also have this as the 10th highest-scoring game of today’s slate and would be leaning towards taking the over. The Reds offense has the 4th highest team hits projection, and Rhett Lowder is our 18th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

At just 22 years old, Elly De La Cruz continues to make Major League Baseball history. The Cincinnati Reds shortstop etched his name alongside legends Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson by becoming the third player in the modern era to record 100 stolen bases in his first two seasons. De La Cruz reached this milestone during the Reds’ 8-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, thanks to his league-leading 65th stolen base of the year.

The Reds will look to capitalize on this momentum when they face the Pirates in the second game of their three-game series on Saturday.

Elly De La Cruz: Speed and Milestones

De La Cruz’s speed has been a defining characteristic of his young career, but getting on base has been key to his ability to steal. Reds manager David Bell spoke highly of De La Cruz’s work ethic, saying, “We know he’s fast. He takes a lot of pride in stolen bases. You have to get on base, too, and that’s been a big part of it for him this season. Impressive so far, what he’s doing.”

Despite his incredible achievement on the basepaths, De La Cruz also set an unwanted franchise record on Friday, striking out twice to bring his season total to 206, the most by any Reds player in a single season. Nonetheless, Bell remains confident in his star player’s growth: “We also know there’s more there. He’s going to get better in all areas.”

The Reds’ Offense: Peaks and Valleys

Cincinnati’s offensive performance has been unpredictable in recent games. The Reds have scored an impressive 33 runs across their last four wins, but in their past five losses, they managed only eight runs total. This feast-or-famine trend has raised concerns about consistency as the team makes a final push in the late season.

Catcher Tyler Stephenson has been a bright spot for the Reds’ lineup. His recent hot streak continued on Friday, going 3-for-5 with a home run, five RBIs, and three runs scored. Stephenson, who is now 8-for-16 since September 14, stated, “Past few games, I’ve started to feel like myself again.” His resurgence has come at a crucial time for the Reds.

Rhett Lowder: Reds’ Rookie on the Mound

On Saturday, the Reds will turn to rookie pitcher Rhett Lowder, who will make his fourth career start. Lowder (1-2, 1.74 ERA) has been reliable in his limited appearances, allowing just one run in his first three starts. However, he showed vulnerability in his most recent outing, giving up three runs in 5 1/3 innings during a 9-2 loss to the Minnesota Twins.

Saturday’s game will mark Lowder’s first matchup against Pittsburgh, and the Reds hope he can return to his early-season form as they seek to take the series lead.

Pittsburgh Pirates: A Season of Struggles

The Pirates’ loss on Friday solidified their sixth consecutive losing season, a disappointment for a team that was in the playoff race just two months ago. Pittsburgh was three games above .500 after the trade deadline, but the team’s fortunes took a nosedive. They have lost 30 of their last 47 games, effectively ending any postseason hopes.

Despite the poor finish, Pirates manager Derek Shelton remains focused on improvement. “I think it just shows you how much room we have to get better,” Shelton said. “We’re not in that spot right now, and that’s our focus as we move forward to the last eight games of the season and into the offseason.”

Jared Jones: Pirates’ Rookie Starter

The Pirates will counter the Reds’ rookie starter with a right-handed rookie of their own. Jared Jones (6-7, 3.85 ERA) will take the mound on Saturday, aiming for his third quality start of September. Jones, like Lowder, has shown flashes of potential but has been inconsistent. In his latest start, he allowed two runs on six hits over four innings in a no-decision against the Kansas City Royals.

Saturday’s game presents an opportunity for Jones to end his season on a high note while also potentially playing spoiler to the Reds’ aspirations.

Oneil Cruz: Overcoming Adversity

Oneil Cruz, the Pirates’ talented center fielder, hit a personal milestone on Friday by launching his 20th home run of the season. Cruz also reached 20 stolen bases, becoming the 10th player in Pirates history to achieve the 20-20 mark.

This achievement is even more remarkable given Cruz’s injury challenges earlier in the season. Reflecting on his journey, Cruz said, “It means a lot, for sure, especially after I’ve been through a lot, health-wise, with my ankle. To be able to accomplish that and help the team somehow with those numbers means a lot to me.”

Conclusion: Reds Poised for Another Win?

As the Reds look to close out the series against the Pirates, all eyes will be on Elly De La Cruz and his ability to create havoc on the basepaths. With contributions from rising stars like Stephenson and Lowder, Cincinnati has the tools to secure another victory. Meanwhile, the Pirates, led by Cruz and Jones, will aim to end their season on a positive note despite their recent struggles. For both teams, the final stretch of the season offers valuable lessons and opportunities for growth heading into 2024.