Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions September 16th 2024

At 8:40 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Rockies face off in an NL West matchup. This one is taking place at Coors Field in Denver, and the Rockies are the slight underdog on the money line (+143). The money line odds have the Diamondbacks at -169.

Arizona will be looking for a win to keep pace with the Dodgers and Rockies in the NL West, as they are 3rd in the division at 83-66. The Rockies are 5th in the NL West and 57-93 overall. Monday’s forecast in Denver calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s.

Arizona vs. Colorado Key Information

Right-hander Merrill Kelly is getting the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Rockies on the road. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 4.26. So far, Kelly has made four quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up three earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Kelly has allowed at least one homer in three straight outings. Opponents are batting .246 off Kelly this year. He has a BB/9 figure of 2.53 compared to 6.95 strikeouts per nine innings.

Arizona comes into today’s game as the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.8 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have been the best team in the league in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

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Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez have been a strong 1-2 punch for the Diamondbacks this season, with Marte batting .293 and Suarez at .256. Suarez has been even better of late, going 14/27 in his last seven games with four homers and eight RBIs. Suarez’s 28 homers is 2nd on the team, and Marte is 1st in homers and 2nd in RBIs for the Diamondbacks.

Antonio Senzatela is coming off a season in which he made two starts and finished with an ERA of 4.70. He finished with a record of 0-1 and allowed three home runs. Senzatela’s WHIP last season was 1.17, and his batting average allowed was .241. His FIP for the season was 8.08, and he finished with zero quality starts. Senzatela’s strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season was 2.0, and he averaged 1.0 walk per game.

So far this season, the Rockies offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. However, they have been much better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, the Rockies are batting .242, which is 14th in the league, and are 16th in home runs. One thing to note is that they are 2nd in the league in BABIP, but their on-base percentage of .303 is just 19th in the MLB.

Michael Toglia has a team-high 24 home runs this season but is batting just .219. Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are the Rockies’ top two hitters, with both players coming in with a batting average of .264. Doyle leads the team with 70 RBIs, while Tovar and Toglia are 2nd and 3rd in RBIs, respectively. Hunter Goodman has gone 4/11 in his last three games with two homers and seven RBIs.

Today’s Diamondbacks and Rockies matchup is our highest projected scoring game of the day, but with the line sitting at 11 runs, we are still leaning towards taking the under. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Diamondbacks to pick up the win. Arizona’s offense comes in with our highest projected hits figure, and Merrill Kelly has the best innings pitched projection in the league today.

Antonio Senzatela Makes Return as Rockies Host Diamondbacks

The Colorado Rockies were confident about their starting rotation heading into the 2023 season, yet wounds have plagued the team’s pitching staff. Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland were all sidelined for significant periods, derailing a large part of the Rockies’ expectations. Be that as it may, Senzatela is set to make his hotly anticipated return to the hill interestingly since May 10, 2023, as Colorado (57-93) opens a three-game home series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night in Denver.

Senzatela’s return gives a rare positive to the Rockies as they hope to complete the season solid and avoid a 100-misfortune campaign. Senzatela’s wounds began in August of 2022 when he experienced a torn ACL, trailed by a ulnar collateral ligament injury that necessary Tommy John medical procedure earlier this year. After an extensive recuperation process, including five injury rehab starts, Senzatela is finally ready to get back to the Rockies’ rotation. His latest rehab start came on September 8 with Double-A Hartford.

The 28-year-old right-hander has broad experience against Arizona, having made 21 career appearances, including 17 starts, against the Diamondbacks. In any case, he has battled with a 3-9 record and a 5.72 ERA in those trips.

Rockies Facing Injuries and Uncertainty

While Senzatela’s return is a much-needed boost, not all news is good for Colorado. Kris Bryant, who has been sidelined since late July with a back strain, is not expected to return for the remainder of the season. Bryant has had an injury-riddled tenure in Colorado since signing a seven-year, $182 million contract in March 2022. In his three seasons with the Rockies, Bryant has played in just 159 out of a possible 474 games.

“As each day goes on, it’s becoming increasingly possible that Kris’ season may be over,” Rockies manager Bud Black said, adding to the team’s list of frustrations in an otherwise challenging season.

Diamondbacks’ Wild Card Push

While the Rockies are out of playoff dispute, the Arizona Diamondbacks (83-66) have all that to play for as they battle to get a National League trump card spot. Arizona sits two games ahead of the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, with only 13 games remaining in the regular season. The Diamondbacks are falling off an outright exhilarating 11-10 win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday and will hope to gather speed against the Rockies.

Arizona will send right-hander Merrill Kelly (4-0, 4.26 ERA) to the hill for the series opener. Kelly has been particularly successful at Coors Field, where he boasts a 3-0 record with a 2.16 ERA starting around 2022. In his career, Kelly is 7-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 14 starts against the Rockies, half of which have come in Denver. The Diamondbacks will rely on major areas of strength for another from Kelly to assist with maintaining their playoff position.

Ryne Nelson’s Injury Impact

The Diamondbacks’ pitching depth took a hit recently with the loss of Ryne Nelson, who was sidelined with right shoulder inflammation. Nelson, who has been a crucial part of Arizona’s rotation, is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. Since July 1, Nelson had been one of the team’s most reliable starters, going 5-0 with a 3.16 ERA.

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Arizona manager Torey Lovullo acknowledged Nelson’s importance, saying, “We would not be where we are without Ryne Nelson and his ability to go out and help us win baseball games. You look at the statistics, it shows up as very positive. But what he’s given us every start has been very consistent.”

Key Matchup in the NL West

The Rockies will hope to play the job of spoiler as they face a Diamondbacks team with postseason aspirations. Colorado showed they can in any case contend after taking two of three games from the Chicago cubs over the course of the end of the week, and with Senzatela returning, the Rockies desire to keep playing spoiler against their NL West rivals.

On the opposite side, Arizona understands the direness of each and every game as the season slows down. With Merrill Kelly in the hill and the team’s offense terminating on all chambers, the Diamondbacks will hope to maintain their lead in the special case race and head into October with energy.

Monday’s game marks the start of a critical series for Arizona, while Colorado will attempt to take pride in playing meaningful baseball down the stretch, regardless of whether it’s just for the chance to upset the postseason picture.