Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions September 4th 2024

Kyle Manzardo, Guardians chase sweep of reeling Royals

The forecast for Wednesday’s Guardians vs. Royals game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 80s. This one gets started at 7:40 PM ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Cleveland is 80-59 and they are 1st in the AL Central, while the Royals are 3rd in the division at 75-65.

Ben Lively is starting for the Guardians, and they are currently on a 3-game winning streak. The Royals are hoping to end a 7-game losing streak, and they will be sending Seth Lugo to the mound. Kansas City is at home, but they are the slight money line underdog (-138). The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the game can be seen on BSKC.

Cleveland vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Guardians at Royals
• Where: Kauffman Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Wednesday, September 4th
• Betting Odds KC -138 | CLE +117 O/U 8.5

The Guardians Can Win If…

Right-hander Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Royals on the road. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA. Lively’s WHIP for the season is 1.23, and he has turned in nine quality starts. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Lively has given up at least two homers in three of his last four outings.

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 34 homers are 5th in the league, and Naylor’s 29 round-trippers are 9th. Ramirez also has the 2nd best batting average on the team at .273, while Naylor is batting .245. Both players have been swinging the bat well of late, with Naylor hitting .429 over his last seven games and Ramirez going 5/10 in his last three games.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are one of the best teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts. However, they are just 16th in batting average and have the worst BABIP in the league. Currently, they are 11th in home runs and have the 12th best isolated power mark in the MLB.

• The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 5.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Guardians are 5-5
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cleveland has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.2 runs per game on offense

The Royals Can Win If…

Seth Lugo will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing vs. the Astros, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Lugo has finished with a decision in each of his last four outings. He is 14-8 this season with a 3.12 ERA. Lugo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.12. So far, he has made 28 starts, one of which was a complete game. Lugo has turned in 19 quality starts this season and is averaging 7.79 strikeouts per nine innings.

As a team, the Royals are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in the league in team batting average, hitting a collective .253. Kansas City is also one of the league’s best power-hitting teams, as their 156 home runs is 13th in the league.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 30 home runs is 8th in the league. Witt Jr. has also driven in 97 runs, which is 6th in the league. He comes into the game on a four-game homer streak but is just 8/34 in his last nine games. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season at the plate, batting .274 with 25 homers.

• The Royals are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Royals are 5-5
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Kansas City has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 5.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 2nd highest-scoring game of the day, and for a money-line pick, we are leaning toward the Guardians to come out on top. Cleveland is 6th in our projections in runs scored, and Ben Lively is 18th to pick up a win. On the other side, Seth Lugo is 3rd worst among today’s starters in projected strikeouts.

The Guardians (80-59) have shown faith in Manzardo’s potential since acquiring him from the Tampa Bay Rays at last year’s trade deadline. Though the 24-year-old initially struggled, his recent resurgence has bolstered Cleveland’s lineup, and the team now aims to close out the series against a slumping Royals squad (75-65).

Kyle Manzardo’s Journey: From Struggles to Success

Manzardo’s first stint in the majors this season was tough. Called up on May 6, he batted just .207 and struggled to showcase any power. These issues led to his demotion to Triple-A Columbus, where the Guardians hoped he could refine his skills—particularly as a designated hitter (DH), a role he was unfamiliar with.

“One of the things Kyle worked on when he went to Columbus was really trying to define a routine as a designated hitter,” said Guardians’ president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti. “He was accustomed to playing first base, but at the major league level, his role was more of a DH. The first time he came up, he wasn’t quite prepared for that.”

In Triple-A, Manzardo found his rhythm. He posted a solid .267 batting average, hit 20 home runs, and drew 61 walks for an impressive .398 on-base percentage. These numbers signaled he was ready for another shot with the Guardians.

When Cleveland recalled him on Sunday, Manzardo made an immediate impact, hitting his first two home runs of the season. He followed that up with a three-hit performance in Tuesday’s 7-1 victory, matching a career high.

“Kyle went down to Triple-A and did a great job of developing a routine as a DH,” Antonetti remarked. “It was fantastic to see all that hard work pay off as soon as he got back.”

Manzardo’s resurgence adds another potent bat to Cleveland’s lineup, where he’s expected to remain as DH moving forward.

Guardians’ Strategy: Developing Young Talent

Manzardo’s turnaround is emblematic of the Guardians’ broader strategy of developing young talent. Cleveland has taken a patient approach with Manzardo, focusing on his long-term potential rather than immediate results. By doing so, they’ve added a dangerous hitter to a lineup that already features standout players like Josh Naylor, who will continue to hold down first base.

Manager Stephen Vogt reiterated the team’s plan: “Josh is our first baseman. Right now, the plan is for Kyle to primarily DH.”

This commitment to player development has put the Guardians in a strong position as they push for a playoff spot. Cleveland’s recent form, winning five of their last six games, demonstrates the payoff of their strategic investments.

Kansas City Royals: Struggling to Find Momentum

On the other side of the diamond, the Kansas City Royals are in the midst of a frustrating seven-game losing streak. Over the past five games, Kansas City’s offense has managed only nine runs, and the team has been unable to capitalize on opportunities at the plate.

“It’s frustrating, this time of year, to go on a losing streak,” said Royals infielder Michael Massey, who has taken on a larger role in the lineup due to Vinnie Pasquantino’s injury. “We’ve done this before and come out of it. We’ve got the guys in this locker room to turn it around.”

Royals bench coach Paul Hoover downplayed the idea of the team pressing, attributing their struggles to tough pitching matchups: “We’ve just run into some good arms.”

Despite the team’s struggles, Kansas City remains hopeful that a reversal is possible, but they face an uphill battle with Cleveland’s pitching and offense firing on all cylinders.

Pitching Matchup: Ben Lively vs. Seth Lugo

Wednesday night’s matchup features Cleveland’s Ben Lively (11-8, 3.92 ERA) going against Kansas City’s Seth Lugo (14-8, 3.12 ERA). Both pitchers have had mixed results this season, and their head-to-head could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the series.

Lively has had a decent track record against Kansas City, with a 1-1 record and a 3.09 ERA in two career starts. However, he struggled in his last outing, giving up six runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Lugo, meanwhile, has been more successful against Cleveland. He’s 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in three career appearances versus the Guardians, including a dominant performance on June 30, where he struck out 10 in six shutout innings during a 6-2 win. Still, Lugo’s form has been inconsistent lately, as he has lost six of his last nine decisions while surrendering five or more runs in five of his last 10 starts.

Guardians Push for a Sweep

With momentum on their side, the Guardians are eager to finish the series on a high note and secure a sweep. A victory on Wednesday would continue to build their confidence as they push toward the postseason. Cleveland’s recent surge has put them 5.5 games ahead of the Royals in the American League Central, positioning them well in the standings.

Meanwhile, Kansas City will be desperate to avoid the sweep and halt their losing streak. With their season spiraling, a strong performance from Lugo and more offensive production will be critical if they hope to turn things around.

Conclusion

The Cleveland Guardians’ strategic approach to player development, exemplified by Kyle Manzardo’s recent success, has helped propel the team forward in their pursuit of a playoff spot. Their patience is paying off, as the Guardians look poised to complete a sweep of the struggling Kansas City Royals. Meanwhile, Kansas City continues to search for answers during a difficult stretch, hoping that their young core can find its footing before it’s too late.

The Best MLB Handicappers on our MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS