Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 7th 2024

Both the Twins and Royals will send a pitcher to the mound on Saturday that is making their MLB debut. Minnesota will start Bailey Ober, while the Royals are giving the ball to Alec Marsh. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 7:15 PM ET, and FOX is carrying this one on TV.

The money line odds have the Twins favored at -141, while the Royals are sitting at +120. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the forecast for Saturday’s matchup in Kansas City calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 70’s.

Right-hander Bailey Ober gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Royals on the road. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 3.95. Opposing batters have hit .207 off Ober this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.02. Ober’s last outing came on September 1st vs. the Blue Jays, where he finished with a no-decision. In that start, he went six innings, giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that outing, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.

Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers are tied for the team lead in home runs, with 20 apiece, and Santana is also the team’s top run producer, with 60 RBIs. However, Santana is batting just .236 this season and has hit just .219 over his last 10 games. Jeffers is also hitting just .237 for the season. Willi Castro is batting .248 for the season and has 11 homers, which is 5th on the team.

Byron Buxton is 2nd on the team with 16 homers and is batting .275 this season. He is also 4th on the team in RBIs. Over his last 10 games, Jose Miranda is batting .333, and Carlos Correa is on a four-game hitting streak.

Kansas City is sending Alec Marsh to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Astros. In that start, he took the loss, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits. Looking back at his last three starts, Marsh has finished with a no-decision in each outing. He has made 21 starts this year, and his record is 7-8 with a 4.70 ERA. Marsh’s WHIP for the season is 1.24, and opponents are batting .242 vs. the right-hander this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.11 strikeouts and 2.76 walks.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .254, which is 5th in the MLB, and have the 2nd fewest strikeouts per game in the league. Overall, they are 15th in home runs and have the 9th best slugging percentage in the league.

Over his last seven games, Bobby Witt Jr. has gone just 5/26, but he does have two homers in that stretch. For the season, he is batting .337 with 30 homers and 97 RBIs. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season, hitting .271 with 25 homers and 94 RBIs. Perez is currently on a three-game hitting streak.

The Kansas City Royals (77-65) are hitting their stride at the right time as they continue their playoff push. After snapping a seven-game losing streak earlier in the week, the Royals are aiming for their third consecutive win when they face the Minnesota Twins (76-65) on Saturday night in the second game of an important weekend series.

Tommy Pham Sparking the Royals’ Offense

Tommy Pham, who recently joined the Royals through waivers, has been a game-changer for Kansas City. His bat has sparked the offense in back-to-back wins, including a clutch three-run homer earlier this week that ended the team’s skid. Pham didn’t stop there—he delivered again in Friday’s 5-0 win over Minnesota, contributing an RBI double and an outfield assist that preserved the shutout.

Since joining Kansas City, Pham has been red-hot, hitting safely in four of his first five games. He’s collected three extra-base hits and driven in four runs, including the decisive RBIs in both of the Royals’ recent victories. “He’s locked in every pitch,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “He’s competitive and puts together great at-bats, hitting the ball hard.”

Pham isn’t the only one stepping up. Yuli Gurriel and Robbie Grossman have chipped in with timely hits, while Paul DeJong, acquired at the trade deadline, has provided some power, hitting six homers with 15 RBIs in just 26 games.

Royals Battle Injuries

Kansas City’s recent additions have been crucial, especially with Vinnie Pasquantino sidelined due to a thumb injury. Pasquantino, who shares the team lead in RBIs (97) with Bobby Witt Jr., underwent surgery earlier this week and is expected to miss six to eight weeks. Despite the setback, Pasquantino remains optimistic, saying, “In my mind, my season’s not over.”

Without Pasquantino’s presence, the Royals’ offense has struggled, managing just 18 runs over their last seven games. Bobby Witt Jr., who has been a force all season, is looking to snap out of a mini-slump, going 5-for-30 in his last eight games. Witt’s production will be key as Kansas City pushes for the postseason.

Alec Marsh Starts for Kansas City

The Royals will turn to Alec Marsh (7-8, 4.70 ERA) for Saturday’s start. Since his recall from Triple-A Omaha, Marsh has gone 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA in two starts. He struggled in his last outing against Minnesota, allowing five runs over seven innings on May 27.

Marsh will need to be cautious, especially with Minnesota’s hitters Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and Edouard Julien, who have all taken him deep in past matchups.

Bailey Ober Takes the Mound for the Twins

The Twins will counter with right-hander Bailey Ober (12-6, 3.95 ERA). Historically, Ober has struggled against the Royals, posting an 0-4 record with a 7.71 ERA in nine career starts against Kansas City. He’s also lost three consecutive starts to the Royals, giving up eight homers along the way, including two to Salvador Perez.

Ober’s recent form has been a bit shaky. He allowed nine runs in just two innings in a blowout loss to the Atlanta Braves but rebounded nicely in his last start, holding the Toronto Blue Jays to one hit over six innings. Ober will need to bring his A-game if the Twins want to bounce back from Friday’s defeat.

Key Matchups to Watch

Tommy Pham vs. Bailey Ober:
Pham has been on fire since joining the Royals, and with Ober’s struggles against Kansas City, this matchup could be the key to another Royals victory.

Alec Marsh vs. Twins’ Lineup:
Marsh has had a tough time against Minnesota’s hitters in the past. He’ll need to find a way to keep Larnach, Miranda, and Julien in check if the Royals are going to win.

Salvador Perez vs. Ober:
Perez has had success against Ober, hitting two homers in previous matchups. With the Royals needing a spark, Perez’s ability to capitalize on Ober’s weaknesses could be pivotal.

What’s at Stake?

For the Royals, every game is crucial as they look to solidify their playoff position. With key injuries impacting their lineup, contributions from recent additions like Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel, and Paul DeJong will be essential to keeping their momentum alive.

For the Twins, a win is desperately needed to stop their recent slide. Bailey Ober will need to overcome his struggles against Kansas City to give Minnesota a fighting chance as they battle for a spot in the playoffs.

Both teams are in the thick of the postseason race, making Saturday’s game a high-stakes contest with plenty on the line.

For a money-line pick, we would be leaning toward the Twins to come out on top in this one. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 6th highest-scoring game of today’s slate, and this one is our 7th ranked game in terms of home runs. Looking at today’s starters, Alec Marsh has the 17th best strikeout projection compared to Bailey Ober (8th worst).