Kansas City Royals vs Ny Yankees Picks and Predictions October 9th 2024

Royals, Yankees await breakouts from superstars

At 7:08 PM ET, the Yankees and Royals will square off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s. New York is currently favored on the money line, and the money line odds have them at -115 compared to the Royals at -102.

The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the under is favored on the payout line at -111. Clarke Schmidt will start for the Yankees, and the Royals are going with Seth Lugo. New York is 1st in the AL East, while the Royals are 2nd in the AL Central.

New York vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Yankees at Royals
• Where: Kauffman Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Wednesday, October 9th
• Betting Odds NYY -115 | KC -102 O/U 8

The Yankees Can Win If…

As the Yankees prepare for game three of their ALDS matchup against the Royals, they find themselves tied 1-1 in the series and on the road. New York posted a 50-31 record away from home this season, compared to 44-37 at home. As the road favorite, they went 33-25 this year.

New York’s run line record for the season is 84-80, including 49-32 on the road. They’ve covered the run line in four straight road games. The Yankees’ games have averaged 9.1 runs this season, while today’s over/under line sits at 8 runs. Their over/under record is 87-72.

Through 16 starts, Clarke Schmidt has a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 2.85. He has made two quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing where he gave up four earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Looking back further, Schmidt has given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Schmidt’s ERA at home is 4.64, compared to 1.51 on the road. So far, he has a record of 3-3 on the road. His strikeout per nine innings figure is 9.81.

Heading into today’s game, the Yankees are the league’s top home run hitting team, and they are also 3rd in the league in runs per game. Overall, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the league, and they have the best team on-base percentage in the league. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, as Judge leads the league with 58 homers and Soto is 4th with 41 homers. Judge is also 1st in the league in RBIs (144), and Soto is 5th with 109 RBIs.

Over his last six games, Juan Soto has gone 8/22 with four runs batted in, while Aaron Judge has gone just 4/18 in his last five games. However, Judge has two homers in that stretch. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/24 with two homers and five RBIs in his last six games.

• The Yankees are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Yankees are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Yankees have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Yankees are 7-3
• Looking back across the Yankees last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• New York has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Yankees have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

The Royals Can Win If…

As the Royals prepare for game three of their AL Divisional Series against the Yankees, they’ll look to break a six-game home losing streak. Kansas City finished the regular season with an 86-76 record, including a 45-36 mark at home and 41-40 on the road. As favorites, they went 50-31 but were 39-46 as underdogs.

During the regular season, the Royals posted a 93-73 run line record, with a +0.5 run-scoring margin at home and +0.7 on the road. They’ve also dropped six straight home games against the run line. The under has been the more frequent result for Kansas City, as their over/under record stands at 70-91, with today’s line of eight runs matching their season average.

Through 33 starts, Seth Lugo has a record of 16-9 and an ERA of 3.00. Lugo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09, and he has one complete game and 22 quality starts. In his last outing, Lugo went 4 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on six hits. He finished with a no-decision in the outing. Lugo has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. The right-hander has allowed a homer in each of his last two outings. Before that, he had a streak of three straight starts without giving up a homer.

For the season, the Royals are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better home team in terms of scoring, averaging 4.8 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the league, and have the 11th best slugging percentage in the league. The Royals have been one of the toughest teams to strike out this season, but they are near the bottom of the league in terms of drawing walks.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the league’s top power threats this season, as his 32 home runs are 12th in the league and the best mark on the Royals. His 109 RBIs are also 5th in the league. Witt Jr. comes into the game with a batting average of .332. Salvador Perez is also a power threat in the lineup, with 27 homers this season. He is currently on a five-game hitting streak and has gone deep in two straight games.

• The Royals are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 5-0 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Royals are 7-3
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Kansas City has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Yankees and Royals matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 2nd highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. However, our lean would be towards the under. For a money-line pick, we would be leaning towards the Yankees to pick up the win. New York’s offense is our highest projected home run-hitting team in today’s league slate, and Clarke Schmidt is 2nd in our projections in terms of starting pitcher strikeouts.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

The American League Division Series (ALDS) between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees has seen two of the league’s biggest stars—Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr.—struggling to live up to their usual stellar performances at the plate. Through the first two games, both players, who are frontrunners for the AL MVP award, have failed to deliver the offensive production their teams rely on. As the series is tied 1-1, the spotlight is on them to break out and make an impact in the critical upcoming games.

Judge and Witt’s Early Struggles

So far in the series, Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals have combined to go just 1-for-17, a far cry from their impressive regular-season statistics. Judge, the Yankees’ slugger, has started the postseason 1-for-7 with four strikeouts, managing only an infield single and a walk in Game 2, which the Royals won 4-2. Similarly, Witt, Kansas City’s standout shortstop, is hitless in 10 at-bats with four strikeouts in the series. Their slow starts have raised concerns, but both players remain poised to turn things around as the ALDS continues.

Stellar Regular Seasons for Judge and Witt

During the regular season, Aaron Judge was an offensive powerhouse. He hit .322, led the AL with 58 home runs and 144 RBIs, and posted a staggering .458 on-base percentage and .701 slugging percentage. His performance put him in rare company with baseball legends like Babe Ruth and Jimmie Foxx, who also achieved those numbers in a single season. Judge’s consistency at the plate made him one of the most feared hitters in baseball, and the Yankees need him to rediscover that form as the series progresses.

On the other hand, Bobby Witt Jr. had a breakout season that cemented his place among the game’s elite. Witt led the AL with a .332 batting average and combined it with a .588 slugging percentage, 31 stolen bases, and elite defense at shortstop. In most seasons, such numbers would make Witt an MVP favorite, but he faces stiff competition from Judge. Despite his struggles against Yankees pitching so far, Witt’s ability to make solid contact and work deep counts suggests that he is close to breaking out.

Managerial Insights: Expect a Breakout

Both managers are keenly aware of the threat posed by these superstars. Royals manager Matt Quatraro emphasized that just because they’ve managed to keep Judge in check so far doesn’t mean they can relax. “You can’t take it for granted and say, ‘Oh, we’ve got him,’” Quatraro noted, acknowledging Judge’s ability to turn a game around with one swing. “He’s one of, if not the best hitter in the game.”

Similarly, Quatraro pointed out that Witt’s ability to battle through long at-bats and make hard contact, even when he doesn’t get results, is a positive sign. “If those are walks, we’re talking about how he’s seeing the ball well, he’s getting on base,” Quatraro said, highlighting Witt’s potential impact on the base paths if he starts reaching base consistently.

The Challenges of Postseason Hitting

Hitting in the postseason is notoriously difficult, especially for high-profile players who face increased pressure and scrutiny. For Judge, his postseason struggles extend beyond the first two games of this ALDS. Since October 2020, he has gone 11-for-77 in the playoffs, with 29 strikeouts in 19 games. Despite this, Judge remains confident, stating, “If I’m not hitting 1.000, I’m not feeling good,” but he insists that he doesn’t feel any added pressure in the postseason. “It’s the same game we’ve been playing all year,” he said.

Witt, though hitless in the series, is making solid contact and just needs a few breaks to turn his fortunes around. With both players heavily targeted by opposing pitchers, the challenge is to adjust and find ways to contribute offensively, especially as the stakes rise.

Pivotal Game 3: Lugo vs. Schmidt

With the series tied at 1-1, all eyes are now on Game 3, where the pitching matchups could play a key role. The Royals are set to send right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo, an All-Star this season, finished the regular season with a 16-9 record and a 3.00 ERA over 33 starts. He’s been effective against the Yankees, particularly in September, when he struck out 10 batters over seven shutout innings. However, Lugo warned against putting too much stock in past performances: “A month ago, that’s a long time. It’s all about today, not yesterday or tomorrow.”

The Yankees will counter with right-hander Clarke Schmidt, who had a solid season, going 5-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 16 starts. Schmidt has a good track record against Kansas City, holding a 2-0 record with a 3.29 ERA in four career games against the Royals. However, this will be his first postseason start, and how he handles the pressure will be crucial to the Yankees’ chances.

What’s Next for Judge and Witt?

As the ALDS moves forward, both teams are eagerly awaiting breakout performances from their superstars. For the Yankees to advance, they will need Aaron Judge to return to his dominant form, adding power and consistency to their lineup. Similarly, the Royals are banking on Bobby Witt Jr. to find his rhythm and capitalize on his ability to get on base and cause havoc with his speed.

With the series tied and the stage set for a dramatic finish, the focus remains on these two MVP candidates. Their performances in the remaining games will likely determine the fate of their teams.

Conclusion

The Royals-Yankees ALDS has showcased tight pitching and key moments from unsung players, but the biggest story remains the struggles of Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr.. As the series is evenly poised, both superstars have the opportunity to flip the narrative in the upcoming games. Whether they break out or continue to struggle will have a significant impact on the outcome of this exciting postseason matchup.