Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 24th 2024

Tigers in playoff mode with visit from Rays ahead

From Comerica Park in Detroit, we have the Rays and Tigers facing off in an AL matchup. The Tigers are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -181, while the Rays are at +152. Today’s over/under line is at 6.5 runs, and the forecasted temperature is 62 degrees with light rain.

First pitch for this one is set for 1:10 PM ET, and the Tigers will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak. They are 82-74 and are 3rd in the AL Central. Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays, who are 78-78 and 4th in the AL East. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Tigers
• Where: Comerica Park Detroit
• Date: Tuesday, September 24th
• Betting Odds DET -181 | TB +152 O/U 6.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces off against the Tigers on the road. So far this season, he has made 24 starts and has a record of 8-6 with a 3.65 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Pepiot has a WHIP of 1.13 and opponents are batting .207 this season. In his 24 starts, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 9.74 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander’s last outing came on September 18th, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on 12 strikeouts. He has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his last four outings.

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been a little better at home, but their home and road scoring averages are both 26th and 27th, respectively. As a team, they are batting just .231 and have the 21st ranked home run total in the league.

Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, as he is batting .284 with 14 homers and 65 RBIs. Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz are both on four-game hitting streaks heading into today’s game. Aranda has three homers in his last seven games and is hitting .320 over that stretch.

• The Rays are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 1-9 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

The Tigers Can Win If…

Tarik Skubal gets the start for the Tigers today vs. the Rays and is coming off a strong outing vs. the Royals. In that September 18th start, he went five innings, picking up the win and giving up just one earned run. Looking back at his last four outings, Skubal has finished with a no-decision in three straight starts. Skubal’s ERA for the season is 2.48, along with a record of 17-4. Opposing batters have hit .204 off Skubal this season. He has made 30 starts, and opponents have hit just 15 homers off him this year.

Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. This season, they are batting a collective .234, which is also 18th in the MLB. Detroit’s team on-base percentage of .299 is one of the worst marks in the league. The Tigers have been led by Riley Greene, who has 24 homers and 72 RBIs this season while batting .262.

Kerry Carpenter has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/19 in his last eight games with three homers. This has pushed his season average to a team-leading .290. Carpenter is also 2nd on the team with 17 homers. He will be looking to extend his three-game hitting streak today.

• The Tigers are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Tigers are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Detroit has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Tigers have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Tigers are 8-2
• Looking back across the Tigers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Detroit has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Tigers have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Even though we have this Tigers vs. Rays matchup as one of the lowest-scoring games of the day, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for a winner, we like the Tigers to come out on top. Tarik Skubal has the 6th best strikeout projection among today’s starters, and he also has the 2nd best chance to pick up a win. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot has the 20th best strikeout projection and 4th worst chance to pick up a win.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

The Detroit Tigers are in full playoff mode as they prepare for a season-defining homestand against the Tampa Bay Rays. What began as a season with moderate expectations has transformed into a late push for the postseason, thanks to a combination of the Tigers’ recent surge and faltering performances from other American League (AL) wild-card contenders.

Tigers Take Control of Wild-Card Race

As the final week of the season approaches, the Tigers (82-74) find themselves tied for the second AL wild-card spot with the Kansas City Royals. A one-game lead over the Minnesota Twins, who sit just outside of the wild-card field, makes the Tigers’ upcoming six-game homestand critical. Their playoff fate is now in their own hands.

Detroit even has a distant chance of catching the Baltimore Orioles, who currently lead the wild-card race by four games. After a successful series win in Baltimore last weekend, where the Tigers took two of three games, their postseason aspirations remain alive and well.

Tigers’ Midseason Turnaround

The Tigers’ current position is a stark contrast to where they stood just a few months ago. On July 4, after a crushing 12-3 loss to the Twins, Detroit found themselves at 39-48, nine games under .500. Few expected a playoff run at that point. However, since then, the Tigers have completely turned their season around, winning 11 of their last 14 games.

This resurgence is a testament to their resilience and hard work, a point emphasized by manager A.J. Hinch. “We’ve worked our tails off to get the results we are getting,” Hinch said. “I’m proud of the effort, but we still have a long way to go. We’re going to stay grounded.”

Close Victories Define Tigers’ Push

The Tigers’ recent victories have been anything but easy. Their last seven wins, stretching back to September 13, have all been decided by two runs or fewer, with two of those games requiring extra innings. This ability to win tight, high-pressure games is key to their late-season success and will likely be crucial in their upcoming games against Tampa Bay.

In their latest win, a 4-3 victory over the Orioles, outfielder Kerry Carpenter powered the Tigers with two home runs. Manager Hinch has been effusive in his praise of Carpenter, calling him “super dangerous” at the plate. “Anyone who has been around our team has seen how dangerous he can be,” Hinch noted.

Meanwhile, Parker Meadows contributed on the defensive end with a stunning catch, robbing Baltimore’s Colton Cowser of a two-run homer. “There’s such good chemistry on this team, and we’re having a lot of fun and have each other’s backs,” Meadows said.

Pitching Matchups Set the Stage

The series opener against the Rays will feature an exciting pitching matchup. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (17-4, 2.48 ERA) is set to take the mound, coming off a stretch where he’s won five of his last eight starts with three no-decisions. Skubal has historically dominated Tampa Bay, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in four career starts against the Rays.

Tampa Bay will counter with right-hander Ryan Pepiot (8-6, 3.64 ERA), who is coming off a stellar outing against the Boston Red Sox. Pepiot recorded a career-high 12 strikeouts in six innings, allowing just one run and two hits. Though he has yet to record a decision against the Tigers, his 1.50 ERA in two career appearances suggests that Detroit will have their hands full.

Rays Cling to Slim Playoff Hopes

While the Rays (78-78) are still mathematically in the playoff race, their hopes are slim. They’ve managed to keep those hopes alive with a recent four-game winning streak, including a weekend sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. Every game in that series was decided by one run, highlighting the Rays’ ability to perform under pressure as well.

First baseman Jonathan Aranda played a key role in the sweep, homering in each of the three games. The Rays, despite a disappointing season overall, are finding some late-season form, with infielder Brandon Lowe acknowledging the stakes: “Definitely not the year that anybody wanted or anybody had hoped for, but to be at this point in the season, to have a great homestand, and to go out on the road and play against a team that’s been playing incredible baseball, it does a lot to still be playing for something.”

High Stakes for Both Teams

For the Tigers, the upcoming series against Tampa Bay represents an opportunity to solidify their playoff position. With the season down to its final six games, every win brings them one step closer to their postseason goal. However, with the Twins breathing down their necks, there’s little room for error.

The Rays, on the other hand, are playing with their backs against the wall. While their postseason chances are slim, the fact that they are still mathematically in contention gives them a fighting chance. Their recent strong performances mean Detroit can’t afford to take them lightly.

Final Thoughts

As the Tigers head into their most important series of the season, they are riding the momentum of a remarkable second-half turnaround. Close victories, strong team chemistry, and key contributions from players like Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows have given them the edge at a critical moment.

The pitching duel between Skubal and Pepiot could very well set the tone for the series, and with both teams still fighting for playoff spots, this series promises to deliver some of the most exciting baseball of the season.

Key Matchup to Watch: Tarik Skubal vs. Ryan Pepiot. Can the Tigers’ ace continue his dominant streak, or will Pepiot bring the Rays closer to an unlikely playoff push?

As fans gear up for the final stretch, the Tigers’ destiny is within their grasp. All eyes will be on Detroit as they aim to clinch their first postseason berth in years, and the Rays will be doing everything in their power to spoil the party.