Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions August 26th 2024

Twins aim to put late loss behind them as Braves come to town

The forecast for Monday’s Braves vs Twins interleague matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-90s. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:40 PM ET. BSN is carrying this one on TV.

Currently, the Braves are 70-60 and 2nd in the NL East, while the Twins are 72-58 and 3rd in the AL Central. Atlanta is favored on the money line (-110), while the Twins are at -108. Monday’s over/under line is at 8 runs.

Atlanta vs. Minnesota Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Twins
• Where: Target Field Minneapolis
• Date: Monday, August 26th
• Betting Odds ATL -110 | MIN -108 O/U 8

The Braves Can Win If…

The Braves are sending left-hander Max Fried to the mound today vs. the Twins. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA. Fried’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. In his 22 appearances, he has turned in 11 quality starts, along with two complete games and one shutout. Fried most recently faced the Phillies, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that outing, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 37 home runs are the 4th most in the league and the top mark on the Braves. Ozuna is also hitting .305 and has driven in 94 runs, which is the 5th best mark in the MLB. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 22 homers but has struggled in the batting average department, hitting just .226.

Orlando Arcia is on a three-game hitting streak for the Braves and has two homers in his last five games. Over this stretch, he is batting .222. Ramon Laureano has also gone deep in his last five games, while hitting .389. For the season, Laureano is batting .305.

• The Braves are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 1-9 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 6-4
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Atlanta has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.8 runs per game on offense

The Twins Can Win If…

Minnesota is sending Bailey Ober to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he comes into the game with a record of 12-5 and an ERA of 3.54. So far this year, he has made 24 starts, and opponents are batting .204 off the right-hander. Ober has turned in 15 quality starts this year and has a WHIP of .99. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a record of 7-1 and an ERA of 2.94 compared to 5-4 with a 7.31 ERA on the road.

As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 7th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in home runs and have the league’s 6th best team batting average at .253. Minnesota’s offense is also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Ryan Jeffers has been the Twins’ best power hitter this season, as his 20 homers are 1st on the team and 15th in the league. He is also coming off a stretch in which he has gone 7/17 with three homers in his last six games. Jeffers’ 59 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Carlos Santana is 2nd on the team with 18 homers but has a batting average of just .237.

• The Twins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Twins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Minnesota has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Twins have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Twins are 5-5
• Looking back across the Twins last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Minnesota has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Twins have averaged 4.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money line pick, our lean would be to take the Twins to come out on top at home. And despite our projections pointing to this being one of the lower-scoring games of the day, we would be leaning towards taking the over. Bailey Ober has the 4th best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters, and Max Fried is 9th in our projections in terms of strikeouts. López is our 9th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts.

The Minnesota Twins are gearing up for a crucial series against the Atlanta Braves, starting Monday night in Minneapolis. This follows one of their most challenging losses of the season—a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday. A costly throwing error by Twins’ second baseman Edouard Julien in the ninth inning opened the door for the Cardinals to rally and win, leaving Minnesota with little time to recover before their next test.

Minnesota Twins: Moving On Quickly

The loss was a tough pill to swallow for the Twins, who are in the thick of the playoff race. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli stressed the importance of moving forward, stating, “It’s going to be a hard loss. With games to come, there’s not going to be a lot of time to dwell on it. I hope our team is not going to dwell on it.”

This mindset will be critical as the Twins prepare to face the Braves, a team that has been on a roll lately, winning six of their last eight games. The Twins will need to shake off the disappointment quickly and focus on the task at hand.

Atlanta Braves: Confidence Despite Recent Setback

The Atlanta Braves enter the series in good spirits despite a 5-1 loss to the Washington Nationals on Sunday, which snapped their chance at a series sweep. Overall, the Braves have been playing strong baseball, with a balanced offense and solid pitching.

Pitching Matchup: Fried vs. Ober

One of the key factors in the series opener will be the pitching duel between Atlanta’s Max Fried and Minnesota’s Bailey Ober.

• Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Fried, with a 7-7 record and a 3.57 ERA, will make his 23rd start of the season. After a rough patch where he went 0-4 with a 6.31 ERA over five starts, Fried showed signs of regaining his form in his last outing against the Philadelphia Phillies. He delivered a quality start, allowing just two runs on four hits over seven innings. Braves manager Brian Snitker was encouraged by Fried’s performance, stating, “That’s what I told him after the seventh inning. You saw it from the first inning. The command was better, the velocity, the quality of his pitches. It was like, ‘Max is back.'”
• Bailey Ober (Minnesota Twins): Ober will counter for the Twins, bringing an impressive 12-5 record and a 3.54 ERA into his 25th start of the season. Ober has been in stellar form, recording 11 consecutive quality starts, and going 7-1 with a 2.09 ERA over that stretch. This will be Ober’s first career start against the Braves, but he has been solid in interleague play with a 4-1 record and a 3.65 ERA in 15 career starts.

What to Watch For:

• Twins’ Resilience: Can the Twins shake off the tough loss and come out strong against one of the National League’s best teams?
• Pitching Duel: Will Fried continue his resurgence, or will Ober’s consistency prevail in this critical matchup?
• Impact of Harris’ Absence: How will the Braves adjust if Harris is unable to play, and can they maintain their offensive momentum without him?

Conclusion:

The series between the Twins and Braves promises to be a tightly contested affair, with both teams having much at stake. The outcome of the opening game could set the tone for the rest of the series, with the pitching matchup likely playing a decisive role. Minnesota will need to quickly put their recent disappointment behind them and focus on securing a win against a confident Braves team. Meanwhile, Atlanta will aim to capitalize on Fried’s improved form and maintain their recent strong play, even if they have to do so without Michael Harris II.

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