Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions September 13th 2024

At 8:10 PM ET, the Reds and Twins face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, and the Reds are 71-77 compared to the Twins at 78-68. Cincinnati is 5th in the NL Central, while the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central.

Friday’s matchup is currently on BSOH, and the Twins are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -221. The over/under line is at 8 runs, and Julian Aguiar is starting for the Reds, while the Twins are going with Bailey Ober.

Cincinnati vs. Minnesota Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Twins
• Where: Target Field Minneapolis
• Date: Friday, September 13th
• Betting Odds MIN -221 | CIN +183 O/U 8

The Reds Can Win If…

Julian Aguiar and the Reds are on the road to take on the Twins. Aguiar has started three games so far this season and has a win and two no-decisions. He has 2 strikeouts in each of his first two starts and has yet to allow a home run this season.

Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ top hitters this season, batting .259 with a team-leading 23 home runs. However, he has struggled of late, going just 4/28 in his last eight games. Overall, he is 2nd on the team with 65 RBIs. Spencer Steer is the team’s top run producer, as his 86 RBIs are 14th in the league. He has 19 homers but is batting just .229 for the season.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 13th in the league in home runs. However, they are batting just .231 (19th) and are near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. Currently, Jake Fraley is on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 9/25 in his last eight games.

• The Reds are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 4-6
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Cincinnati has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.1 runs per game on offense

Before placing any bets, ensure you review our comprehensive MLB Betting Guide to make informed decisions.

The Twins Can Win If…

Twins starter Bailey Ober has made 27 starts this season, and he has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 3.77. Ober’s WHIP for the season is currently .98. In his 27 appearances, he has turned in 17 quality starts and is averaging 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Ober’s most recent outing came against the Royals, where he went seven innings, giving up no earned runs, and finished with seven strikeouts. He didn’t give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight starts.

Carlos Santana has been swinging the bat well for the Twins of late, going 8/26 in his last eight games with three homers and six RBIs. Overall, he is batting just .239, but his 21 homers are the most on the team. Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro are also in the top three in terms of RBIs, but both are hitting below .250 for the season.

Minnesota has been getting good production from their offense this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They are also near the top of the league in team slugging percentage and OPS. The Twins have five players who have gone deep at least 20 times this season.

• The Twins are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Twins are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Minnesota has an over/under record of 4-4-2 in their last ten games.
• The Twins have an average of 4.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Twins are 3-7
• Looking back across the Twins last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Minnesota has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Twins have averaged 3.5 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money line pick, our lean would be to take the Twins to come out on top. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over. These teams are projected to have the 3rd lowest combined run total and 3rd lowest hits total. But with the line sitting at 8 runs, we still have this one going over. The Twins offense has the 8th best home run projection, and Bailey Ober has the 7th best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.

Twins Can’t Afford a Misstep Against the Reds in Playoff Push

The Minnesota Twins are entering a crucial three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds, and they can’t afford any slip-ups. With just 16 games left in the regular season, the Twins are laser-focused on locking down that final AL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Reds, though likely out of the playoff picture, would love to play spoiler and throw a wrench in Minnesota’s plans.

Twins Pushing Hard for the Playoffs

The Minnesota Twins (78-68) currently hold a 3.5-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for the last AL Wild Card slot. At this stage of the season, every single game matters. Manager Rocco Baldelli knows what’s at stake, saying, “We’ve got to find ways to win, no excuses.” With just a few games left, the Twins need to stay sharp and make sure teams like the Reds don’t trip them up.

With such a slim margin for error and only 16 games left on the schedule, the Twins can’t afford to take their foot off the gas. Dropping games to teams like the Reds could cost them a playoff spot.

Byron Buxton’s Return Could Be a Game-Changer

The best news for the Twins? Star outfielder Byron Buxton is back! After being out since August 12 with a hip injury, Buxton is expected to be in the lineup for Friday’s series opener, and his return could be the spark Minnesota desperately needs as they head down the final stretch.

Even though Buxton’s battled injuries all season, he’s been super productive when healthy. In 90 games, he’s hit .275 with 16 homers, 49 RBIs, and six stolen bases, not to mention his impressive .862 OPS, second on the team behind Carlos Correa (who’s also currently sidelined). Buxton adds a much-needed power boost to the lineup and gives the Twins an edge as they head into this must-win series.

Twins rookie Royce Lewis, who had a big game in their 6-4 win over the Angels on Wednesday, couldn’t hide his excitement about Buxton’s return. “It’s a glimmer of hope,” he said, noting that Buxton’s presence lifts the whole team’s energy as they push for the postseason.

Pitching Showdown: Ober vs. Aguiar

The Twins are sending Bailey Ober (12-6, 3.77 ERA) to the mound, and he’s been in fine form lately. In his last two starts, Ober’s been lights out, giving up just one earned run across 13 innings against the Blue Jays and Royals. He’s struck out 162 batters in 155 innings this season and has been a big reason the Twins are still in the playoff hunt.

Ober will be facing the Reds for just the third time in his career. He hasn’t been great in those past meetings, with an 0-0 record and a 5.79 ERA, but given his recent run of success, the Twins are hoping he can dominate.

On the other side, the Reds are going with rookie right-hander Julian Aguiar (1-0, 5.06 ERA). Aguiar is making only his sixth career start, and while he’s shown some promise, his inexperience could be something the Twins take advantage of, especially in a series where the stakes are so high.

Reds Offense Needs a Wake-Up Call

The Cincinnati Reds (71-77) are coming off a rough 6-1 loss to the Cardinals, where their offense was nearly non-existent, managing just four hits and no extra-base hits. Although they’re out of the playoff picture, the Reds would love to play spoiler, and a stronger offensive showing against the Twins could do just that.

Jonathan India drove in the Reds’ only run in their loss to St. Louis, but the Reds have struggled all season to produce consistent offense. Reds manager David Bell pointed to how former Twins pitcher Sonny Gray shut them down in that game, and they’ll need to figure out a way to turn things around quickly if they hope to give Minnesota any trouble.

You can always refer to the current MLB Odds to stay up to date with the latest betting lines.

Elly De La Cruz: A Speed Threat the Twins Can’t Ignore

One of the biggest threats the Reds have going into this series is Elly De La Cruz, who leads the majors with 64 stolen bases. His speed is a serious weapon, and he has the ability to disrupt pitchers and catchers if he gets on base. Keeping him contained will be a major challenge for the Twins.

If De La Cruz can reach base regularly, his aggressive base running could tilt the game in Cincinnati’s favor. For the Twins, staying alert and managing his speed will be critical to keeping the Reds’ offense at bay.

Will Benson’s Injury Status

The Reds might be without outfielder Will Benson for Friday’s game after he left Thursday’s contest with a finger injury. Benson, who was hit by a pitch while attempting to bunt, is day-to-day, and his absence could further weaken a Reds lineup that’s already struggling to generate offense. If he’s unable to go, Cincinnati’s job against the Twins becomes that much harder.

Key Storylines to Watch

• Byron Buxton’s Return: Can Buxton’s return provide the offensive jolt the Twins need? He’s been a difference-maker when healthy, and his presence in the lineup could be just what Minnesota needs to keep their playoff push alive.
• Bailey Ober’s Hot Streak: Ober has been dealing lately, and the Twins will need him to keep that going. If he can shut down the Reds’ offense and give the Twins a quality start, they’ll be in great shape to win the series opener.
• Reds’ Offensive Struggles: Cincinnati’s offense has been lackluster, and unless they can turn it around quickly, they’ll have a hard time keeping up with a motivated Twins team.
• Elly De La Cruz’s Speed: De La Cruz’s ability to steal bases makes him one of the most dangerous players in the Reds’ lineup. If he gets on base, the Twins will need to be extra cautious to keep him from wreaking havoc on the base paths.
• Twins’ Sense of Urgency: With only 16 games left, every game is a must-win for the Twins. How they handle the pressure and execute in key moments will define their chances of securing that final Wild Card spot.

Conclusion

This series between the Twins and Reds is all about the playoff-bound Twins staying on track while the Reds look to play spoiler. The return of Byron Buxton gives Minnesota a much-needed boost as they try to hold onto their Wild Card lead. Bailey Ober’s recent dominance on the mound will also be crucial in shutting down a struggling Reds offense.

For Cincinnati, Elly De La Cruz’s speed could be a game-changer, but the Twins will be looking to control him and avoid any offensive slumps to keep their postseason dreams alive. Expect a hard-fought series with the Twins knowing they can’t afford to slip up as they chase that Wild Card spot.