Chi. White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions September 10th 2024

The Guardians and White Sox face off in an AL Central matchup at 7:40 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Cleveland is currently 1st in the AL Central with an overall record of 82-62, while the White Sox are 5th in the division at 33-112.

Cleveland is the money line favorite for Tuesday’s matchup, with the odds sitting at -222 compared to the White Sox at +186. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and NBCS will be televising this game.

Cleveland vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Guardians at White Sox
• Where: Guaranteed Rate Field Chicago
• Date: Tuesday, September 10th
• Betting Odds CLE -222 | CHW +186 O/U 8.5

The Guardians Can Win If…

Right-hander Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the White Sox on the road. Lively has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 11-9 with a 4.07 ERA. His WHIP for the season is currently 1.25. In his 25 appearances, Lively has turned in nine quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, he took the loss vs. the Royals, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One positive note for Lively is that he has a better record at home, going 7-2 with a 4.29 ERA compared to 4-7 with a 4.42 ERA on the road.

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .238, which is 17th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .309 is also below average. One area where they have been strong is in terms of avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 3rd fewest strikeouts in the league.

José Ramírez has been the Guardians’ top power hitter this season, as his 34 homers are 8th in the league. He also has the 2nd most RBIs in the league, with 106. Ramírez comes into the game with a batting average of .271. Over his last five games, Andrés Giménez is hitting .286 with one homer, and Bo Naylor has also gone deep in his last four games, but he is just 2/11 in this stretch.

• The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 1-7-2 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Guardians are 5-5
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.2 runs per game on offense

The White Sox Can Win If…

Jonathan Cannon will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Orioles. In that September 4th start, he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Cannon has made 17 starts and six of them have been quality starts. His record for the season is 3-9, and his ERA is 4.53. Opposing batters are hitting .265 off Cannon this season. For the year, he has allowed 15 homers and is averaging 6.22 strikeouts per nine innings.

Andrew Vaughn has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/25 in his last seven games with two homers. For the season, he is batting .244 with a team-high 63 RBIs and 17 home runs. Andrew Benintendi is also near the top of the White Sox home run leaderboard, with 16 homers, but he is batting just .223 for the season.

As a team, the White Sox are last in the league in home runs and are also the worst scoring team in the league, averaging just 3.1 runs per game. Their team batting average is just .221, and they have the league’s worst on-base percentage and OPS. Not only are they last in home runs, but they are also 26th in slugging percentage.

• The White Sox are 2-8 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the White Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The White Sox have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the White Sox are 3-7
• Looking back across the White Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Chicago has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the White Sox have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

Bo Naylor’s Offensive Surge Powers the Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are rolling, and a big reason for that is catcher Bo Naylor, who’s heating up just as his team needs him the most. After dropping into a brief slump, going hitless in nine straight at-bats, Naylor bounced back in a big way during Monday’s 5-3 win over the Chicago White Sox. Naylor delivered two hits, including a solo home run, providing a crucial spark as the Guardians look to stay on top in the AL Central.

With the Guardians (82-62) pushing toward the playoffs, Naylor’s resurgence couldn’t have come at a better time. “I’m just trying to help the team offensively as much as I can,” Naylor said. “Sticking to my approach and executing it is always a good thing to see.” His confidence at the plate is giving the Guardians another weapon as they hit the final stretch of the season.

Naylor wasn’t the only one delivering for Cleveland on Monday. His brother, Josh Naylor, also notched two hits, while David Fry blasted a solo homer to help Cleveland secure their sixth win against the White Sox this season.

Guardians Capitalize on White Sox Struggles

It’s been a rough year for the White Sox (33-112), and Monday was no exception as they suffered their 13th straight home loss. Chicago’s offense showed some life late in the game, with Andrew Benintendi breaking up a perfect-game bid in the seventh inning and rookie Bryan Ramos launching his first career home run in the eighth. But it wasn’t enough to overcome the Guardians, who tallied 14 strikeouts against White Sox batters.

With the win, the Guardians extended their lead in the AL Central to 3 1/2 games over the Kansas City Royals, keeping them in a solid spot as they look to clinch a playoff berth.

Ben Lively Takes the Mound for Cleveland

Right-hander Ben Lively (11-9, 4.07 ERA) is set to take the ball for Cleveland in Tuesday’s game, looking to secure another series win for the Guardians. Lively has struggled a bit recently, posting a 6.37 ERA over his last six outings and walking 13 batters in his last 29 2/3 innings. With 135 innings pitched this season — well above his previous career high of 88 2/3 innings — fatigue may be setting in.

Despite his recent bumps, Lively remains focused on getting better. “Thinking about being better—that’s what pushes me after games like this,” Lively said after a tough outing against the Royals last week, where he gave up four runs over four innings.

Lively has faced the White Sox twice this year, with mixed results. He took a loss back in May but rebounded in July with a strong six-inning performance, giving up just three runs in a Guardians victory.

White Sox Turn to Jonathan Cannon

The White Sox will counter with rookie right-hander Jonathan Cannon (3-9, 4.53 ERA), who’s coming off one of his best starts of the season. Cannon earned a win against the Baltimore Orioles last week, allowing just one run on five hits over 5 2/3 innings. Cannon has struggled with his command at times this year, but in his last outing, he made key adjustments, focusing on getting ahead in counts.

Tuesday’s game will mark Cannon’s first career start against the Guardians, and he’ll be looking to keep his momentum going while the White Sox try to break out of their prolonged slump.

What’s on the Line?

The Guardians are in control of their destiny in the AL Central, and every win brings them closer to securing the division title. Cleveland’s depth and resilience have been key all season, and as they inch closer to the postseason, they’ll need everyone—especially their pitching staff and lineup—to keep delivering.

For the White Sox, the stakes are more about pride and avoiding a record-setting low. With 112 losses on the season, they need to win 10 of their final 17 games to avoid tying the infamous 1962 New York Mets for the most losses in modern MLB history. Despite the uphill battle, Chicago’s players, like outfielder Dominic Fletcher, are determined to keep fighting. “We want to go out there and compete and try to win every game,” Fletcher said.

Conclusion

With Bo Naylor finding his rhythm at the plate and Ben Lively looking to bounce back, the Guardians are in a great position to extend their winning streak against a White Sox team that’s been struggling all season. As Cleveland looks to solidify its lead in the AL Central and Chicago fights to avoid further infamy, Tuesday’s game could have a significant impact on both teams as the season winds down.

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as we have this one as the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day. The way we are leaning for a play on the money line is to take the Guardians to win straight up. Cleveland’s offense is our 2nd highest-rated team in terms of fewest team strikeouts, and we have Ben Lively finishing with the 5th fewest strikeouts among today’s starters.