Chi. White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions September 11th 2024

Behind strong bullpen, Guardians seek sweep of White Sox

At 2:10 PM ET, the Guardians and White Sox face off in an AL Central matchup. This one is being played at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, and the Guardians are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -230 compared to the White Sox at +192. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Cleveland will be looking to keep their two-game winning streak alive, as they are 83-62 and in 1st place in the AL Central. Chicago, meanwhile, is 33-113 and has lost two straight. Matthew Boyd will start for the Guardians, while the White Sox are going with Davis Martin.

Cleveland vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Guardians at White Sox
• Where: Guaranteed Rate Field Chicago
• Date: Wednesday, September 11th
• Betting Odds CLE -230 | CHW +192 O/U 8

The Guardians Can Win If…

Matthew Boyd and the Guardians are on the road to take on the White Sox today. Boyd has been solid through his first three starts, with a 1-1 record. He is coming off a win over the Dodgers, where he struck out six and gave up just one earned run in six innings of work.

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .239 and have the league’s worst BABIP. However, they have been one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts.

José Ramírez has been the team’s top power threat this season, with 34 home runs, which is 8th in the league. His 106 RBIs are the 2nd most in the MLB. Ramírez is also on a three-game hitting streak. Over the Guardians’ last eight games, Lane Thomas and Andrés Giménez have been swinging the bat well, with Thomas hitting .310 with three homers and Giménez batting .294.

• The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 0-8-2 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 3.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Guardians are 5-5
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 5-0
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The White Sox Can Win If…

Through seven starts, Davis Martin has yet to pick up a win, as he is 0-3 with an ERA of 3.29. Martin has made two quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three hits, three walks, and one home run. Martin has a record of 0-1 at home this year and an ERA of 3.49. On the road, his ERA is 3.87. The right-hander has allowed a total of four home runs this year.

Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are dead last in home runs and are averaging only 3.1 runs per game. Their team batting average of .221 is also one of the worst marks in the league. However, Andrew Vaughn has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/29 in his last eight games with two homers.

For the season, Vaughn is batting .246 with a team-high 17 homers and 63 RBIs. Andrew Benintendi is 2nd on the team in homers (16) but is batting just .221 for the season. The White Sox will need both of these guys to get going if they are going to turn around their offensive struggles.

• The White Sox are 2-8 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the White Sox are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The White Sox have an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the White Sox are 3-7
• Looking back across the White Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Chicago has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the White Sox have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick is to take the over, as we have this one as the 5th lowest-scoring game of the day, and this line is sitting at 8 runs. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Guardians to pick up the win. Cleveland’s offense is our 3rd highest-rated team in terms of fewest strikeouts today, and Davis Martin has the 8th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

The Cleveland Guardians have found a winning formula this season, thanks in large part to a bullpen that leads the major leagues with the lowest ERA. As the Guardians push to solidify their lead in the American League Central, their dependable bullpen has played a critical role in every victory, including their current series against the Chicago White Sox.

Cleveland’s Bullpen: The Key to Success

One of the main reasons the Cleveland Guardians hold a 3.5-game lead in the AL Central is their dominant bullpen. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt praised his relievers for their adaptability and willingness to pitch in any situation. “They don’t care when. They don’t care why. They’re willing to pitch at any time,” Vogt stated, emphasizing the importance of the bullpen’s flexibility.

Cleveland is positioned to complete a three-game sweep of the White Sox on Wednesday, largely due to its bullpen’s consistency. In Tuesday’s 5-0 victory, six Cleveland relievers combined for seven scoreless innings after starting pitcher Ben Lively left the game with a right thigh contusion, the result of a comebacker at the end of the second inning.

Despite Lively’s early exit, the Guardians’ bullpen stepped up and kept Chicago’s offense at bay, underscoring the team’s overall resilience and depth.

Offense Comes Alive Behind Lane Thomas

While Cleveland’s pitching has been stellar, the team’s offense also continues to deliver when needed. Four Guardians players recorded two hits each on Tuesday, contributing to the team’s steady offensive output. Lane Thomas led the charge with a double and a three-run home run, his first multi-hit game in weeks. Thomas’s performance in September has been a bright spot, batting .364 after a dismal August in which he hit just .143.

Reflecting on his recent turnaround, Thomas noted the mental toughness needed to succeed in baseball: “Man, this game kicks you in the teeth a lot. So not taking it too hard and just putting your emphasis on the work and good things will start happening.”

His renewed form is timely as Cleveland continues its push for the playoffs.

White Sox: A Season of Struggles

On the other side of the matchup, the Chicago White Sox are enduring a historically poor season. Tuesday’s loss was their 14th consecutive home defeat, setting a new franchise record. Despite some decent individual performances, such as Andrew Vaughn going 2-for-4 with a double, the White Sox were unable to break through against Cleveland’s pitchers.

Interim manager Grady Sizemore pointed to the team’s inability to adjust at the plate as a significant issue. “We weren’t able to grind at-bats and make them work,” Sizemore said. “They were pretty comfortable out there doing what they wanted to do, and we just didn’t make the adjustment.”

The White Sox, now 33-113, need to win 10 of their remaining 16 games to avoid tying the 1962 New York Mets for the most losses in a single season (120) in modern MLB history.

Guardians Clinch Season Series

Despite Chicago’s struggles, they had played Cleveland competitively earlier in the season, splitting the first 10 games. However, Cleveland’s victories on Monday and Tuesday allowed them to clinch the season series, further establishing their superiority over the White Sox. Chicago has now lost 20 consecutive series and has not won a home game since August 12.

Wednesday’s Pitching Matchup: Boyd vs. Martin

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s game, the Guardians will send left-hander Matthew Boyd to the mound. Boyd (2-1, 2.20 ERA) has been solid since returning from Tommy John surgery in mid-August. In his last five starts, he has pitched no fewer than 5 1/3 innings, including a six-inning performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Friday, where he allowed just one run on three hits while striking out six.

Boyd’s history against the White Sox is less favorable, with a career record of 4-9 and a 5.12 ERA in 18 starts, but his recent form suggests he could reverse that trend.

Opposing Boyd will be White Sox right-hander Davis Martin (0-3, 3.29 ERA), who is also returning from Tommy John surgery. Martin is coming off a no-decision against the Boston Red Sox last Friday, where he pitched six strong innings, allowing only one run on three hits. However, his lone career start against Cleveland in 2022 saw him surrender four runs over six innings.

Both pitchers are looking to continue their comebacks from injury, but Boyd’s current form gives Cleveland the edge in this matchup.

Outlook: Guardians Poised for a Sweep

Given the Guardians’ recent momentum and the White Sox’s ongoing struggles, Cleveland appears well-positioned to complete the sweep on Wednesday. With Boyd’s steady pitching and a bullpen that remains one of the best in the league, Cleveland has a clear path to another victory. Meanwhile, Chicago will be fighting to end their historic losing streak and salvage something from a season that continues to spiral downward.

Cleveland’s strong bullpen and consistent offensive contributions have been the driving force behind their success, and they will likely continue to play pivotal roles as the Guardians push toward a division title and a deep playoff run.

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