Ny Yankees Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions October 7th 2024

Carlos Rodon will be starting for the Yankees on Monday, while the Royals are going with Cole Ragans. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:38 PM ET. TBS is carrying this game on TV, and the Yankees are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -152. The money line odds for a Royals win are at +131.

The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Yankees will be looking to pick up a win and move on to the ALDS. The Royals are 86-76 this season, and they are the second-place team in the AL Central.

Kansas City vs. New York Key Information

As the Royals prepare for game two of their series against the Yankees, they find themselves needing a win to avoid falling behind 0-2. Kansas City is on the road, where they posted a 41-40 record during the regular season, compared to their 45-36 mark at home. As favorites, the Royals went 50-31, while they were 38-46 as underdogs.

Looking at the run line, Kansas City finished the regular season with a 92-73 record, with a +0.6 average run margin per game. They’ve covered the run line in five straight road games. The under has been a common trend for the Royals, as their over/under record is 70-90. Today’s line of 7.5 runs is below their season average of 8.4 runs.

Cole Ragans gets the start for the Royals today as he faces off against the Yankees on the road. This year, he has made 32 starts and 21 of them have been quality starts. Ragans’ ERA for the season is 3.14, along with a record of 11-9. In his 186 1/3 innings of work, Ragans has a total of 223 strikeouts, coming in at fourth in the league. The last time he pitched, Ragans picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished with eight strikeouts in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts.

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Heading into today’s game, the Royals offense is averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts.

Salvador Perez and Michael Massey are both on four-game hitting streaks, with Massey going 8/21 in his last six games. Perez is batting .271 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 27 homers. Bobby Witt Jr. has been the team’s top hitter this season, batting .332 with 32 homers and 109 RBIs.

As the Yankees prepare for game two of their series against the Royals, they hold a 1-0 lead and look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. New York finished the regular season with a 94-68 record, going 44-37 at home and 50-31 on the road. As favorites, they posted a 77-60 mark this year.

New York went 84-79 against the run line this season, with a +0.4 run-scoring margin at home and +1.4 on the road. At home, they were 35-47 versus the run line. The Yankees’ over/under record is 87-71, and 85.2% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line. The over has hit in their last three games.

Carlos Rodón gets the start for the Yankees today and comes into the game with a record of 16-9 and an ERA of 3.96. So far this season, he has made 32 starts and 16 of them have been quality starts. Rodón’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22, and he is averaging 10.03 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Rodón finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. The left-hander has been much better at home, going 9-2 with a 3.58 ERA compared to 7-7 with a 5.25 ERA on the road.

There is no question that the Yankees offense can hit the long ball, as they lead the league in home runs and have the 3rd best team ISO in the league. As a team, they are averaging 5 runs per game and are batting .248, which is 7th in the league. One area they have been really good is at the plate is drawing walks, as they are the best team in the league in this category.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been the Yankees top power threats this season, with Judge leading the league with 58 homers and Soto’s 41 homers being the 4th most in the league. Judge has also been red hot of late, going 5/24 with 5 homers in his last 7 games. Gleyber Torres has also been swinging a hot bat, going 13/34 in his last 8 games.

The Yankees on the money line is the way we are leaning in this one as they get set to host the Royals. We have this as the highest projected scoring game of the day, but our lean is on the under. Looking at today’s starters, we have Carlos Rodón finishing with more strikeouts than Cole Ragans for the Royals.

Improved Carlos Rodon Leads Yankees Against Royals in Game 2

Rodon’s Resurgence Key to Yankees’ Success

Carlos Rodon’s lowest point in his first season with the New York Yankees came in his final start of 2023, where he allowed eight runs without recording an out against the Kansas City Royals. It capped off a rough year in which he went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA after missing the first three months with a back injury.

However, 2024 has been a redemption story for the left-hander, who helped the Yankees claim the American League East title. Rodon enters Game 2 of the AL Division Series on Monday looking to continue his resurgence against the Royals, who are making their first postseason appearance since 2015. The Yankees aim to take a 2-0 lead in the series after a thrilling 6-5 win in Game 1 on Saturday, highlighted by Alex Verdugo’s go-ahead RBI single in the seventh inning.

Rodon’s Growth and Confidence

Rodon’s turnaround has been fueled by increased confidence and adjustments to his pitch selection. He has reduced his reliance on the four-seam fastball and increased usage of his changeup and curveball. Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake praised Rodon’s mental growth and adaptability.

“This season, Rodon made every start, won a career-high 16 games, and showed resilience by allowing two earned runs or fewer in 21 of his 32 starts,” Blake said. “His confidence is back, and he’s throwing with conviction.”

Rodon is set to make his third career postseason start, having previously pitched for the Chicago White Sox in 2020 and 2021.

Royals Lean on Ragans for Strong Outing

Meanwhile, the Royals will turn to left-hander Cole Ragans, who became a bright spot in their rotation during a difficult season. Kansas City finished the regular season with 106 losses, but Ragans’ impressive stretch helped them reach the postseason. Ragans, a first-time All-Star in 2024, led the Royals with 223 strikeouts but also struggled with command, issuing 67 walks—eighth most in the majors.

The Royals will hope Ragans can maintain his postseason form after a stellar performance in the wild-card series against Baltimore, where he struck out eight and didn’t allow a walk over six scoreless innings.

“It’s the same game, just maybe a little louder,” Ragans said, downplaying the postseason pressure. “The nerves settle down after the first pitch, and then it’s about execution.”

Game 2 Matchup: Rodon vs. Ragans

Rodon and Ragans previously faced off on Sept. 9, with Rodon allowing four runs (two earned) over six innings in a Yankees victory. Both pitchers have a chance to help their teams gain the upper hand in this pivotal Game 2.

The Yankees will look to build on their Game 1 win, which saw timely hitting and a solid bullpen effort. Meanwhile, the Royals hope to avoid the command issues that plagued them in Game 1, where they issued eight walks.

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Looking Ahead

The Yankees will aim to continue their momentum behind Rodon, while the Royals will hope Ragans can keep their playoff run alive. Both teams are looking for a strong showing in Game 2 as the AL Division Series heats up.