Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings Picks and Predictions March 3rd 2025

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings March 3rd 2025

The Sacramento Kings (+100) travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks (-120) in a Western Conference matchup. The Kings are 9th in the Western Conference with a record of 31-28, while the Mavericks are 10th with a record of 32-29. Sacramento enters the game on a three-game win streak.

This game will be played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The over/under line for the game is 231.5 points. The Mavericks are favored by 1.5 points.

Kings vs. Mavericks Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks
• Where: Dallas at American Airlines Center
• Date: Monday, March 3rd
• Betting Odds DAL -1.5, SAC +100 | DAL -120 O/U 231.5

The Kings Can Win If…

The Kings improved to 31-28 with a 113-103 win over the Rockets on Saturday. Sacramento entered the game as +4 point underdogs and covered the spread with the win. The total score of 216 points fell short of the 230.5-point O/U line.

A key moment was a 15-0 run by the Kings, which took the score from 6-3 to 18-6. After a 38-38 tie in the 2nd quarter, Sacramento edged out Houston 26-23 in the 3rd and 24-21 in the 4th.

In their win over the Rockets, the Kings shot 50.6% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 9 threes at a 32.1% rate. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 21 points, adding 9 of those in the 4th quarter.

Zach LaVine contributed 20 points, while Malik Monk added 16, with 5 points coming in the final period. Jonas Valančiūnas scored 9 of his 15 points in the 2nd quarter, and Keon Ellis chipped in 6 of his 12 points in the 4th.

Despite a tough 2nd quarter where they gave up 38 points, the Kings tightened up defensively in the 3rd and 4th, allowing just 21 points in each to secure the win. Overall, they held the Rockets to 103 points on 43% shooting.

From beyond the arc, the Kings allowed 13 threes on 37% shooting. They sent the Rockets to the line 23 times, where Houston made 16 free throws. Sacramento also recorded 13 steals and 5 blocks.

• The Kings are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Kings have gone 4-6 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 4-6.
• Over their last five games, the Kings have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Mavericks Can Win If…

After a 132-117 loss to the Bucks on Saturday, the Mavericks’ record dropped to 32-29. Dallas, who were +3 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 249 exceeded the O/U line of 229 by 20 points.

Dallas led 36-31 after the 1st quarter, but the Bucks went on a 10-0 run, turning a 69-63 deficit into a 73-69 lead. Milwaukee dominated the 2nd and 3rd quarters, outscoring the Mavs 70-43, and Dallas’ 38-31 edge in the 4th wasn’t enough to close the gap.

In their loss to the Bucks, the Mavericks shot 47.3% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 27.5% of their threes, with 11 makes. Kyrie Irving led the team with 31 points, despite shooting 39.1% overall and 22.2% from three.

Moses Brown contributed 18 points on 88.9% shooting, while Klay Thompson added 16 points, hitting 4 threes at a 44.4% rate. Irving scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Thompson and Jaden Hardy each added 8 in the final period.

The Mavericks struggled defensively against the Bucks, giving up 132 points in the loss. Dallas allowed 31 points in the 1st, 30 in the 3rd, and 31 in the 4th, but their toughest stretch came in the 2nd quarter, where they gave up 40 points.

Milwaukee shot 50% from the field, including 33% from three with 13 made threes. The Bucks also went to the line 35 times, hitting 31 free throws. The Mavericks recorded 7 steals and 1 block defensively.

• In their last five home games, Dallas has averaged 109 points per game while allowing 123. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have an overall record of 4-1 while going 2-2-1 against the spread.
• In their last three games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +1.5, the Kings is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 231.5, and our model projects the Kings and Mavericks to reach a combined total of 210 points. Our bet is on taking the under.

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Kings, Mavericks Looking to Climb Out of Play-In Spots

With the Western Conference playoff race tightening, the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks meet Monday night in a pivotal showdown that could impact postseason seeding.

Both teams sit just outside the top six in the West, meaning a guaranteed playoff spot is still within reach—but a loss could push them further into the play-in tournament mix.

• Sacramento has won three straight and started its current road trip 2-0.
• Dallas has lost three of its last four, struggling without key frontcourt players.

Sacramento has already secured the season series after winning two straight against Dallas, including a 129-128 overtime thriller last month.

Kings Must Adjust Without Sabonis

Sacramento’s winning streak has been fueled by Domantas Sabonis, who has averaged 16.5 points and 15.5 rebounds per game against Dallas this season. However, the Kings will be without their All-Star big man on Monday after he injured his left hamstring early in Saturday’s 113-103 win over Houston.

Fortunately for the Kings, Jonas Valanciunas stepped in admirably against Houston, finishing with:

• 15 points
• 14 rebounds
• 30 minutes off the bench

Valanciunas has played a reserve role since joining Sacramento at the trade deadline, but he will likely start in place of Sabonis.

Coach Doug Christie emphasized that it will take a full-team effort to compensate for Sabonis’ absence.

“A lot of guys stepped in (against Houston) and were just trying to do what they do, and that adds up to everyone pulling the rope in the same direction,” Christie said.

Bench contributions from Trey Lyles and Jake LaRavia (who combined for 10 points and nine rebounds on Saturday) will also be important in keeping Sacramento’s frontcourt afloat.

Mavericks Dealing With Their Own Injury Woes

Dallas has also been decimated by injuries in the paint. The Mavericks were missing:

• Anthony Davis (strained left adductor) – 8 straight games missed
• Dereck Lively II (right ankle stress fracture) – 21 straight games missed
• Daniel Gafford (sprained right MCL) – 7 straight games missed
• P.J. Washington (right ankle sprain) – OUT for Monday

These frontcourt absences have exposed Dallas’ rebounding struggles, which cost them in last month’s home loss to Sacramento (50-33 rebounding disparity).

With Washington out, coach Jason Kidd may have to lean more on Kessler Edwards, who is playing on a two-way contract with just 10 NBA games remaining.

“If P.J.’s out, most likely Kessler will be in,” Kidd said.

Edwards started against the Kings last month, logging 26 minutes, six points, two steals, and two blocks.

Key Matchups to Watch

Jonas Valanciunas vs. Dallas’ Patchwork Frontcourt
Valanciunas has a chance to dominate against a Mavericks team missing all its primary big men.

Luka Dončić vs. Kings’ Defense
Luka has carried Dallas offensively, but will he get enough support from the depleted lineup?

Sacramento’s Bench Production
Without Sabonis, the Kings will need players like Lyles, LaRavia, and Davion Mitchell to step up.

What’s at Stake?

For Sacramento, a win would:

• Extend their winning streak to four games.
• Move them ahead of Dallas in the standings.
• Continue their road trip momentum before heading to Denver.

Need expert strategies for smarter betting? Read the NBA Expert Betting Guide for data-driven insights!

For Dallas, a win would:

• Snap a tough stretch of three losses in four games.
• Stay competitive despite frontcourt injuries.
• Avoid dropping deeper into the play-in conversation.

Which Team Overcomes Its Injury Woes?

With playoff seeding on the line, both Sacramento and Dallas need this win badly.

Can the Kings adjust without Sabonis, or will Luka Dončić carry the Mavericks to a much-needed victory?

The answer unfolds Monday night in Dallas.