Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks and Predictions April 11th 2025

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies April 11th 2025

At 9:00 ET, the Memphis Grizzlies (47-33) will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets (48-32) in a Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets are favored by 7 points and are 4th in the West, while the Grizzlies are 7th.

This game will be played at Ball Arena and can be seen on ALT.

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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
• Where: Denver at Ball Arena
• Date: Friday, April 11th
• Betting Odds DEN -7, MEM +238 | DEN -290 O/U 241

The Grizzlies Can Win If…

The Grizzlies fell to 47-33 on the season after a 141-125 home loss to the Timberwolves on Thursday. Memphis came in as +2 point underdogs and didn’t cover the spread, while the game’s total of 266 points soared past the 230.5 O/U line.

Memphis looked strong after taking a 72-67 lead into the 3rd quarter, but a 17-0 run by Minnesota turned the game around, pushing the score to 92-72. The Timberwolves dominated the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Grizzlies 52-25, and Memphis couldn’t recover despite a solid 4th quarter.

In their 141-125 loss to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies shot 51.7% from the field and knocked down 18 threes at a 50% clip. Ja Morant led the way with 36 points and 5 made threes, while Desmond Bane added 28 points and 6 threes, shooting 60% from deep.

Bane had a big 2nd quarter, scoring 19 points, while Morant added 12 in the 1st. Jaren Jackson contributed 23 points, including 8 in the 3rd, and Scotty Pippen chipped in 8 of his 16 points in the 3rd as well.

The Grizzlies struggled defensively against the Timberwolves, giving up 141 points on 55% shooting. Their toughest stretch came in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed 52 points. Memphis did manage to tighten up in the 4th, holding Minnesota to 22 points.

From beyond the arc, the Timberwolves hit 20 threes at a 45% clip. They also went 25/28 from the free-throw line. The Grizzlies finished with 25 defensive rebounds, while allowing 8 offensive boards, and recorded 5 steals and 2 blocks.

• Although Memphis has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 4-6. The team averaged 114 points per game in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Grizzlies have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• Over their last three games, the Grizzlies have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets moved to 48-32 this season with a 124-116 road win over the Kings on Wednesday. Denver entered the game as -4.5 point favorites and covered the spread, while the total score of 240 points went over the line of 234.5.

A key moment for Denver was a 12-0 run that turned a 63-58 deficit into a 70-63 lead. They led 93-83 going into the 4th quarter and held off the Kings, who outscored them 33-31 in the final period.

Christian Braun led the Nuggets to a win over the Kings, scoring 25 points on 75% shooting, including 3 threes at 60%. He put up 12 points in the 1st quarter. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. each added 21 points, with Porter hitting 4 threes at 50%.

Denver hit 13 threes, shooting 38.2% from deep and 50% overall. Jalen Pickett contributed 18 points, with 9 in the 3rd quarter and 6 more in the 4th. Nikola Jokić also added 8 of his 20 points in the final period.

Defensively, the Nuggets were solid in the 1st and 3rd quarters, giving up just 25 points in each, but they struggled in the 2nd and 4th, allowing 33 points in both. Overall, they gave up 116 points on 46% shooting from the field.

Denver had trouble defending the three, as the Kings hit 16 threes at a 44% clip. The Nuggets sent the Kings to the line 17 times, where they made 14 free throws. Denver finished with 33 defensive rebounds, allowing 11 offensive boards, and added 7 steals and 5 blocks.

• Although Denver has a straight up record of 2-3 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 112 points per game in these games.
• The last ten games that Denver was favored, they have an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 4-6 straight up.
• In their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

For a pick on the point-spread in this Nuggets vs. Grizzlies matchup, our bet is to grab the Grizzlies at +7. Even though our projections have the Nuggets winning 143-139, we see the Grizzlies as the play on the point-spread.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 241, and our model predicts the Grizzlies and Nuggets to score a combined 282 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Daily NBA Picks & Predictions

The Denver Nuggets are gearing up for one of the most critical games of their season as they prepare to host the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night. Fresh off a pivotal win against the Sacramento Kings, the Nuggets have their eyes firmly set on a playoff berth and home-court advantage—goals well within reach if they win their final two games.

Playoff Picture: Nuggets on the Cusp of Clinching

With a 48-32 record, Denver currently sits in fourth place in the tight Western Conference standings. A win against Memphis would virtually lock them into the playoffs and help them avoid the unpredictable play-in tournament.

Should the Nuggets also defeat the Houston Rockets on Sunday, they would secure a valuable home-court advantage for the first round—an edge that could be vital in a fiercely competitive postseason.

Leadership Shake-Up Sparks Urgent Response

In a bold and surprising move, the Nuggets parted ways with head coach Michael Malone just three games before the end of the regular season. The organization also confirmed it will not renew the contract of general manager Calvin Booth.

This decision sent shockwaves through the locker room, prompting an immediate reaction. Denver snapped a four-game losing streak by beating the Kings 124-116, proving the team still has plenty of fight left.

Nikola Jokic summed it up best:
“When someone wants to wake somebody up or change the energy, that’s probably what they do. In my country, if somebody gets fired … probably you’re the next.”

Jokic Eyes Historic Triple-Double Season

Nikola Jokic continues to elevate his legacy, pushing toward an unprecedented milestone. The Serbian center is on track to become only the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double across an entire season, joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook.

Current Season Stats:

• Points per game: 29.8
• Rebounds per game: 12.8
• Assists per game: 10.2

His elite performance ranks in the top three in all three categories—an indicator of his unmatched versatility and leadership on the court.

Grizzlies Fighting for Position in Crowded Western Standings

Memphis enters the matchup with a 47-33 record, tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors. However, tiebreaker scenarios favor the Warriors and Grizzlies over Minnesota.

Still, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A loss to Denver could push Memphis into the eighth seed, forcing them to participate in the play-in round and potentially lose home-court advantage.

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Fatigue Factor and Injury Concerns Hit Memphis Hard

The Grizzlies will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after a 141-125 loss to Minnesota. This fatigue could be a key factor against a rested and motivated Nuggets squad.

To compound the issue, rookie Jaylen Wells is out for the season after suffering a broken wrist. Despite surgery, Wells was seen supporting the team at Thursday’s shootaround. Teammate Vince Williams Jr. noted, “He seems like he’s in decent spirits.”

Key Player Stats for Memphis:

• Ja Morant: 23.2 PPG (limited to 49 games this season)
• Jaren Jackson Jr.: 22.2 PPG
• Desmond Bane: 19.2 PPG

Despite Morant’s explosive scoring, the team’s depth and energy will be tested against a Nuggets squad rejuvenated by recent changes.

What’s at Stake for Both Teams

This game isn’t just another regular season contest—it could define the postseason paths for both franchises.

Final Thoughts

With playoff implications at an all-time high and franchise-shaping decisions already made, the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies face off in what promises to be a high-stakes, emotionally charged showdown. For Denver, momentum and home-court aspirations ride on this victory. For Memphis, it’s about survival and seeding in a hyper-competitive Western Conference.

Both teams are talented, but only one can take the next step with confidence. Don’t miss it.