Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions April 2nd 2025

Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs April 2nd 2025

At 9:00 ET, the Denver Nuggets (-358) will host the San Antonio Spurs (+283) in a Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets are favored by 8.5 points and the over/under line is 229.

San Antonio comes into this game having lost five in a row and they are 13th in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 3rd in the West and have a record of 47-29.

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Spurs vs. Nuggets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
• Where: Denver at Ball Arena
• Date: Wednesday, April 2nd
• Betting Odds DEN -8.5, SA +283 | DEN -358 O/U 229

The Spurs Can Win If…

The Spurs fell to 31-44 on the season after a 116-105 loss to the Magic on Tuesday. San Antonio, who were +5.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread at home. The total score of 221 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 217.

San Antonio started strong, leading 34-29 after the 1st quarter. They allowed Orlando to score 32 points in the 2nd quarter but held them to just 18 points in the 3rd, taking an 84-79 lead into the 4th. However, the Magic dominated the final period, outscoring the Spurs 37-21 to seal the win.

In their 116-105 loss to the Magic, the Spurs shot 49.4% from the field and connected on 40.6% of their threes, making 13 from deep. Harrison Barnes led the way with 24 points, hitting 4 threes at an 80% clip, while Julian Champagnie added 19 points, knocking down 5 threes at 55.6%.

Stephon Castle contributed 16 points and 8 rebounds, and Devin Vassell and Bismack Biyombo each chipped in 11 points. Barnes scored 8 points in the 4th quarter, while Champagnie had 8 in the 1st.

Defensively, the Spurs had a strong 3rd quarter, allowing just 18 points, but they gave up 37 in the 4th, leading to a 116-105 loss to the Magic. Overall, San Antonio allowed Orlando to shoot 47% from the field.

The Spurs struggled to defend the three, as the Magic hit 18 threes at a 38% clip. San Antonio sent Orlando to the line 12 times, where they made all their free throws. The Spurs finished with 7 steals and 4 blocks.

• When looking at their past five road matchups, San Antonio has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Spurs have a straight up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• Over their last five games, the Spurs have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Nuggets Can Win If…

Denver’s record dropped to 47-29 after a 140-139 home loss to the Timberwolves on Tuesday. The Nuggets, favored by 1.5 points, failed to cover the spread, and the game’s total of 279 points soared past the 229.5-point line.

After leading 32-26 in the 1st quarter, Denver struggled as Minnesota went on a 10-0 run. The Nuggets fell behind 84-79 heading into the 4th but rallied to outscore the Timberwolves 33-28 in the final period, though it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

Nikola Jokić put up a monster performance in the Nuggets’ 140-139 loss to the Timberwolves, finishing with 61 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, while hitting 6 threes at a 54.5% clip. Jokić scored 16 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, and added 7 points in the first overtime and 5 more in the second. Aaron Gordon contributed 30 points, including 6 points in each overtime period, and Christian Braun added 18 points and 12 rebounds.

As a team, the Nuggets shot 54.7% from the field, with Jokić hitting 62.1% of his shots. They made 12 threes, shooting 35.3% from beyond the arc.

Despite holding the Timberwolves to 26 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, the Nuggets couldn’t contain them in the 3rd, giving up 32 points, and ultimately allowed 140 in the loss. Denver allowed Minnesota to shoot 46% from the field.

The Timberwolves hit 19 threes at a 38% clip. Denver sent Minnesota to the line 25 times, where they made 17 free throws. The Nuggets grabbed 37 defensive rebounds but allowed 21 offensive boards. They also recorded 7 steals and 7 blocks.

• Through their last three home contests, the Nuggets offense has averaged 111 points per game while allowing an average of 119. Denver posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Denver posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
• In their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Coming in as the underdogs at +8.5, we have the Spurs as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 229 and our model has the Spurs and Nuggets finishing with a combined 181 points. Our pick is to take the under.

Sliding Spurs Face a Tall Task Against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets

The San Antonio Spurs have struggled mightily this season after losing their two best players—Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox—to season-ending injuries. With their postseason hopes fading, the Spurs (31-44) are desperate to avoid a sixth straight loss as they head to Denver on Wednesday night, the second game of a back-to-back set.

Spurs Rely on Depth and Emerging Talent

Despite the absence of their top scorers, there have been bright spots for San Antonio. Victor Wembanyama continues to lead the team in scoring, averaging 24.3 points and 11.0 rebounds, while De’Aaron Fox, in his limited 17-game stint since arriving from Sacramento in February, is averaging 19.7 points. In their absence, Devin Vassell (16.3 ppg), rookie Stephon Castle (14.3 ppg), and Keldon Johnson (12.7 ppg) have stepped up to fill the offensive void.

Stephon Castle, the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, has been especially impressive. Named Western Conference rookie of the month in both January and March, Castle averaged 19.5 points, 4.8 assists, and 4.4 rebounds in 17 games last month. He delivered season-highs with 32 points against Oklahoma City on March 2, and 22 points with 11 rebounds against both Cleveland on March 27 and Boston on March 29. Keldon Johnson summed it up: “I feel like he’s already a special talent, but the sky’s the limit for Steph. I feel like the game is already slowing down for him, but once he keeps growing… he’s going to be great.”

Nuggets Look Over the Shoulders of Greatness

The Denver Nuggets (47-29) enter the game riding high despite a recent double-overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, where they fell 140-139. Nikola Jokic continues to defy expectations, recording his 31st triple-double of the season with a career-high 61 points along with 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Averaging 29.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists, Jokic leads Denver in all three categories and remains the engine of a team that is now only a half-game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers for the third seed in the West, and two games behind second-place Houston.

Coach Michael Malone summed it up, “I’ve been fortunate to coach some great players… Nikola’s on a whole other level. People say he’s not athletic. Not many guys can do what he does.” With Jamal Murray (hamstring) and Michael Porter Jr. (personal reasons) sidelined, the Nuggets have had to rely on extended minutes from Jokic, who logged a career-high 53 minutes in their last game.

A late-sequence turnover in the final seconds of that game—Russell Westbrook’s stolen pass leading to a missed layup, followed by a foul on Nickeil Alexander-Walker on a 3-pointer with 0.1 seconds left, converted by two free throws—kept Denver’s slender lead intact.

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The Challenge Ahead

For the Spurs, this matchup is more than just another regular-season contest. It is a battle against a team led by one of the best players in the game. The Nuggets’ offensive juggernaut, anchored by Jokic’s brilliance, poses a daunting challenge for a Spurs team already hamstrung by injuries and forced to rely on its emerging talents. With every possession, San Antonio must play with urgency and precision to contain Denver’s high-powered attack and to mitigate the fatigue and pressure that comes with a deep playoff push by the Nuggets.

The result will not only reflect on the Spurs’ resilience but could also determine whether they have a glimmer of hope for rebuilding their identity next season.

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