Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz Picks and Predictions March 28th 2025

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz March 28th 2025

At 9:00 ET, the Denver Nuggets (-2007) will host the Utah Jazz (+1025) at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets are favored by 17.5 points and the over/under line is 238.5.

This division matchup will be played in Denver and can be seen on ALT.

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Jazz vs. Nuggets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
• Where: Denver at Ball Arena
• Date: Friday, March 28th
• Betting Odds DEN -17.5, UTA +1025 | DEN -2007 O/U 238.5

The Jazz Can Win If…

Utah fell to 16-58 on the season after a 121-110 home loss to the Rockets on Thursday. The Jazz were +13.5 point underdogs but managed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 231, which went over the line of 226.5 by 4.5 points.

Utah kept things close early, trailing 27-24 after the 1st quarter and edging out the Rockets 27-26 in the 2nd. However, Houston pulled away in the 3rd, outscoring the Jazz 36-29. Utah tried to rally in the 4th, scoring 30 points, but Houston’s 32 points in the final quarter sealed the win.

In their 121-110 loss to the Rockets, the Jazz shot 54.4% from the field and hit 47.8% from beyond the arc, making 11 threes. Collin Sexton led the way with 21 points, 9 of which came in the 4th quarter, and he also added 5 assists.

Brice Sensabaugh was perfect from the field, hitting all 5 of his threes and finishing with 17 points, 12 of which came in the 2nd quarter. Keyonte George also contributed 17 points and 8 assists, while Kyle Filipowski and Isaiah Collier each added 16 points.

The Jazz defense held the Rockets to 27 points in the 1st quarter and 26 in the 2nd, but they struggled in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 36 and 32 points, respectively, in a 121-110 loss. Utah allowed Houston to shoot 46% from the field.

Utah did well defending the three, holding the Rockets to 12 made threes on 32% shooting. Houston went 15/19 from the free-throw line. The Jazz grabbed 30 defensive rebounds but allowed 18 offensive boards, while also recording 5 steals and 5 blocks.

• Utah has a 0-5 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 111 points per game while allowing 121. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Jazz have a straight up record of 0-10 and an ATS mark of 4-6.
• Over their last five games, the Jazz have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Nuggets Can Win If…

With a 127-117 win over the Bucks on Wednesday, the Nuggets improved to 46-28 this season. Denver was at home and favored by 11.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 244, surpassing the O/U line of 227 by 17 points.

Denver jumped out to a 38-27 lead after the 1st quarter, but Milwaukee closed the gap by winning the 2nd quarter 37-29. The Nuggets regained control in the 3rd, outscoring the Bucks 33-28, and entered the 4th with a 100-92 lead. They edged Milwaukee 27-25 in the final quarter to seal the win.

The Nuggets shot 54.4% from the field and hit 16 threes at a 43.2% clip in their win over the Bucks. Nikola Jokić led the way with 39 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, shooting 64% from the floor and knocking down 3 threes at 50% efficiency.

Michael Porter Jr. added 23 points, hitting 6 threes at 75% and grabbing 10 rebounds. Christian Braun also recorded a double-double with 19 points and 10 boards, connecting on 3 threes at 50%.

Even with a rough 2nd quarter where they allowed 37 points, the Nuggets tightened up in the 4th, giving up just 25 points to secure the win over the Bucks. Denver’s defense allowed Milwaukee to shoot 51% from the field.

The Nuggets also struggled to defend the three, with the Bucks hitting 16 threes at a 43% clip. Denver sent Milwaukee to the line 13 times, where they made 9 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 38 defensive rebounds, 6 steals, and 4 blocks.

• Across their ten previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 5-5 while averaging 116 points per game.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have gone 1-9 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• In their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 0-5 vs. the spread.

The Lean

In this Jazz vs. Nuggets matchup, our point-spread bet is on the Jazz at +17.5. While we project the Nuggets to win 129-121, our recommendation is to bet on the Jazz for the point-spread.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 238.5, and our model predicts the Jazz and Nuggets to score a combined 250 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Jokic, Nuggets Cautious as Jazz Visit Denver on Friday

The Denver Nuggets are pushing for optimal seeding in the Western Conference, but a Friday night visit from the struggling Utah Jazz presents a classic trap scenario that Denver cannot afford to take lightly.

Denver Eyes Consistency Against Inferior Opponent

Despite holding a strong 46-28 record, the Nuggets have shown a troubling tendency to underperform against bottom-tier opponents this season. Losses to the Wizards and Trail Blazers illustrate a pattern Denver must break if it wants to maintain momentum heading into the postseason.

That effort begins Friday when the Nuggets welcome the NBA-worst Utah Jazz (16-58), who have dropped four straight games and 14 of their last 15. Denver is 29-9 at Ball Arena this season but can’t take anything for granted.

Nikola Jokic looked fully healthy in his return from an ankle injury on Wednesday, tallying 39 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a 127-117 win over Milwaukee. It marked his league-leading 30th triple-double of the season. Jamal Murray added support with 20 points, and Michael Porter Jr. played through a hamstring issue to chip in 17.

Porter admitted he’s not at full strength, but Denver is managing his minutes with a playoff push in mind. The Nuggets sit just one game back of Minnesota for second place in the West, and every matchup counts.

Shorthanded Jazz Look to Salvage Tough Road Trip

Utah arrives in Denver after a Thursday night home loss to the Rockets. They’ll be on short rest and possibly without several core players. Lauri Markkanen and John Collins remain sidelined, and the team announced Thursday that Jordan Clarkson will miss the remainder of the season due to a foot procedure.

With multiple starters out, the Jazz are relying heavily on young contributors like Keyonte George and Collin Sexton. George scored 25 points in Thursday’s loss, but the team’s defense once again faltered, allowing 121 points to Houston.

Head coach Will Hardy has challenged his team’s intensity, noting after Tuesday’s loss to Memphis that effort and focus have been inconsistent.

Now beginning a five-game road trip — with eight of their final nine games against playoff or play-in teams — the Jazz are in evaluation mode, but that doesn’t make them any less dangerous in a spoiler role.

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Key Matchup to Watch

The Jazz will likely have no answer for Jokic inside, especially without Collins or Markkanen. The key for Denver will be not falling into the trap of playing down to their opponent’s level. If the Nuggets defend early and limit turnovers, they should comfortably maintain control.

For more insights and analysis on this matchup, check out our NBA Predictions page.