Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions April 4th 2025

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets April 4th 2025

At 10:00 ET, the Golden State Warriors (45-31) will host the Denver Nuggets (47-30) in a Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets are favored by 1.5 points and have a moneyline of -121.

Golden State has won four straight games and is currently 5th in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, Denver has lost two in a row and is 3rd in the West.

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Nuggets vs. Warriors Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
• Where: San Francisco at Chase Center
• Date: Friday, April 4th
• Betting Odds DEN -1.5, DEN -121 | GS +102 O/U 233.5

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets fell to 47-30 on the season after a 113-106 home loss to the Spurs on Wednesday. Denver, favored by 2.5 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 219 fell short of the 228-point over/under line.

Denver’s slow start saw them down 33-21 after the 1st quarter. They tied the 2nd quarter 33-33 and took control in the 3rd, outscoring the Spurs 31-22. An 11-0 run gave them a 96-88 lead, but they faltered in the 4th, getting outscored 25-21.

In their 113-106 loss to the Spurs, the Nuggets shot just 39.6% from the field, with a three-point percentage of 29.5%. Despite the struggles, they connected on 13 threes overall.

Russell Westbrook led the way with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists, scoring 14 points in the 3rd quarter. Jalen Pickett added 17 points, 10 assists, and 11 rebounds, hitting 3 threes at 50% efficiency.

Defensively, the Nuggets struggled in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up 33 points in each, but they tightened up in the 3rd, allowing just 22 points. They also held the Spurs to 25 points in the 4th. Overall, Denver allowed 113 points on 44% shooting from the field.

The Nuggets had trouble defending the three, as the Spurs hit 17 threes at a 37% clip. Denver sent San Antonio to the line 13 times, where they made 10 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 44 defensive rebounds, gave up 8 offensive boards, and recorded 7 steals and 4 blocks.

• Across the Nuggets last three road games, the team averaged 111 points per game while allowing 119. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Going back to their last five games as the favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.
• Over their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Warriors Can Win If…

The Warriors improved to 45-31 this season with a 123-116 road win over the Lakers on Thursday. Golden State entered the game as +1 point underdogs and covered the spread with the victory. The total score of 239 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 230.5 by 8.5 points.

Golden State built a solid lead by outscoring the Lakers 34-25 in the 2nd quarter and went into the 4th quarter up 88-77. Although the Lakers outscored the Warriors 39-35 in the final period, Golden State held on for the win.

Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a win over the Lakers with 37 points, 16 of which came in the 3rd quarter. Brandin Podziemski added 28 points, hitting 8 threes at an 80% clip, including 13 points in the 2nd quarter.

Golden State connected on 19 threes, shooting 45.2% from deep and 47.6% overall. Jonathan Kuminga contributed 18 points, while Jimmy Butler scored 7 of his 11 points in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Warriors were strong in the 1st and 2nd quarters, allowing just 22 and 25 points, respectively. However, they struggled in the 4th, giving up 39 points. Overall, they allowed the Lakers to shoot 45% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Warriors gave up 18 threes on 38% shooting. The Lakers also went 20/23 from the free-throw line. Golden State finished with 32 defensive rebounds, while allowing 14 offensive boards, and recorded 5 steals and 2 blocks.

• In their last ten games at home, the Warriors have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 5-4-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 119 points per game in these contests.
• As the betting underdog, the Warriors have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Golden State posted a straight up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.
• In their last three games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re backing the Nuggets for a victory, with the projected score at 143-127. Additionally, we favor them to cover the spread, so we recommend placing a bet on the Nuggets at -1.5.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 233.5, and our model projects the Nuggets and Warriors to reach a combined total of 270 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Nuggets Aim to Regain Momentum

The Denver Nuggets (47-30) have a chance to complete a three-game season sweep of the Golden State Warriors (45-31) when the two Western Conference playoff contenders clash Friday night in San Francisco. Despite recent struggles that have seen them drop five of their last eight, Denver enters this key matchup rested and ready to secure a critical victory, having had Thursday off while Golden State battled to a 123-116 win over the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Nuggets have already beaten Golden State twice this season, most recently earning a 114-105 road win last month without stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in the lineup. Jokic, the reigning three-time MVP, had previously dominated the Warriors with a 38-point performance in December’s 119-115 victory.

Currently third in the Western Conference, the Nuggets remain 1.5 games ahead of the fifth-place Warriors. But Denver’s margin for error has shrunk, and another loss could put them at risk of slipping closer to play-in territory.

Warriors Riding Butler-Boosted Hot Streak

Since acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat in February, the Warriors have become one of the NBA’s hottest teams, winning 20 of their last 25 games. Butler’s presence alongside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green has propelled Golden State into serious playoff contention. He scored 23 points in the Warriors’ March loss to Denver and will be vital in Friday’s rematch.

On Thursday night, it was second-year guard Brandin Podziemski who took center stage, hitting eight 3-pointers on his way to a 28-point, eight-rebound, six-assist night against the Lakers. Coach Steve Kerr praised the Warriors’ collective commitment, which has them well-positioned entering the final stretch.

“Every game we just have to figure out what we need to do to win,” Kerr said after Thursday’s win. “I’m really enjoying the collective sense of: Just win; nothing else matters.”

Injury Updates Could Impact Friday’s Showdown

Denver enters Friday with uncertainty surrounding the status of several key players. Jamal Murray, who missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury, is questionable, along with standout forward Aaron Gordon, who dominated Golden State with a 38-point outing in their last meeting. Jokic, however, is listed as probable and should be available to lead the Nuggets.

If Murray remains sidelined, the Nuggets could again turn to second-year guard Jalen Pickett, who posted an impressive triple-double (11 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists) against the Spurs on Wednesday. Pickett’s recent form has earned high praise from coach Michael Malone, who described the young guard as “steady and trustworthy.”

The Warriors confirmed they would have all key players available despite heavy minutes on Thursday, ensuring a star-studded showdown with major playoff implications.

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Friday’s Nuggets vs. Warriors matchup is an intriguing opportunity for bettors, featuring star talent on both sides. Check out our NBA Expert Picks for the best insights into this pivotal Western Conference clash.