Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat January 7th 2025

At 10:00 ET, the Golden State Warriors (-418) will host the Miami Heat (+323) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is set at 218.

Golden State (-9.5) is currently 8th in the Western Conference with an 18-17 record, while Miami is 9th in the East at 17-17. The Heat have lost three straight games.

Heat vs. Warriors Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
• Where: San Francisco at Chase Center
• Date: Tuesday, January 7th
• Betting Odds GS -9.5, MIA +323 | GS -418 O/U 218

The Heat Can Win If…

Miami fell to 17-17 on the season after a 123-118 road loss to the Kings on Monday. The Heat entered the game as +4 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 241 points went well over the pre-game total of 217.5.

Miami led 78-68 going into the 4th quarter after a strong 3rd quarter, where they outscored Sacramento 31-18. However, the Kings responded with a 34-24 4th quarter to seal the win. Miami had an 11-0 run to take the lead from 76-68 to 79-76 but couldn’t hold on down the stretch.

Tyler Herro led the Heat with 26 points and 7 rebounds in their 123-118 loss to the Kings, hitting 4 threes at a 40% clip. Overall, Miami struggled from deep, connecting on just 26.2% of their attempts, making 11 threes in total.

Herro scored 12 of his points in the opening quarter, while Terry Rozier and Bam Adebayo each contributed 18 points. Jaime Jaquez added 8 of his 16 points in the 4th quarter, and Haywood Highsmith scored 8 of his 14 points in the 3rd.

The Heat played solid defense for three quarters but struggled in the 4th, giving up 34 points in a 123-118 loss to the Kings. They held Sacramento to 41% shooting overall, including 34% from three-point range, where the Kings made 13 threes.

Miami sent the Kings to the line 26 times, where they hit 20 free throws. The Heat grabbed 41 defensive rebounds but allowed 18 offensive boards. They also recorded 14 steals and 6 blocks.

• Through their last ten road games, Miami has an ATS record of just 2-8. However, their overall record was 3-7 while averaging 107 points per game.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Warriors Can Win If…

The Warriors fell to 18-17 on the season after a 129-99 home loss to the Kings on Sunday. Golden State, favored by 3.5 points, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 228, just over the pre-game O/U line of 225.

Golden State started slow, trailing 36-21 after the 1st quarter. They went on an 11-0 run to close the gap to 40-39 but couldn’t sustain the momentum. The Kings pulled away, leading 105-75 going into the 4th quarter, which ended in a 24-24 tie.

In the Warriors’ 99-point effort against the Kings, Stephen Curry led the way with 26 points, shooting 66.7% from the field and hitting 4 threes at a 50% clip. Andrew Wiggins added 18 points, while Moses Moody contributed 13, knocking down 3 threes at 50% efficiency.

Golden State connected on 12 threes, shooting 34.3% from deep and 45.7% overall. Curry scored 15 of his points in the 2nd quarter, while Moody added 7 points in the 4th.

The Warriors struggled defensively, giving up 129 points to the Kings, including 36 in the 1st quarter and 39 in the 2nd. Sacramento shot 51% from the field.

Golden State allowed 19 threes on 44% shooting from deep. They sent the Kings to the line 22 times, where they hit 20 free throws. The Warriors finished with 26 defensive rebounds, 10 steals, and 3 blocks.

• Across their ten previous home games, Golden State has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 104 points per game.
• In their last five contests as the favorite, Golden State has a poor record vs the spread going 2-3. But, they still put together a straight up mark of 3-2.
• In their last three games, the Warriors have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Heat come in as the underdog at +9.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 218 and our model has the Heat and Warriors finishing with a combined 215 points. Our pick is to take the under.

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Heat and Warriors Both Looking for Redemption in San Francisco

The Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors are meeting on Tuesday night, and both teams are desperate for a turnaround. The Heat are coming off a grueling double-overtime loss to the Kings, while the Warriors are trying to shake off the sting of a blowout loss to those same Kings just a couple of days earlier.

Miami Heat: Running on Empty

The Heat have had a rough few days. They got crushed 136-100 by the Jazz right before starting this road trip, and then they battled hard in Sacramento on Monday, only to lose 123-118 in double overtime.

• Fatigue is Real: All five of Miami’s starters played at least 41 minutes against the Kings. That’s a lot of miles on the legs heading into a back-to-back game.
• No Jimmy, No Problem?: With Jimmy Butler suspended, Miami is doing its best to stick to its defensive roots. Head coach Erik Spoelstra is staying focused:”When you go on the road, you need your defense to travel. We just need to recalibrate and get back to our identity.”
• Who’s Stepping Up?: Role players like Jamal Cain and Nikola Jovic stepped up big in a win over the Warriors last year when Butler was also out. Miami will need more of that if they want to keep this game close.

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Golden State Warriors: Time to Bounce Back

The Warriors aren’t feeling great either after getting thrashed 129-99 by the Kings on Sunday. It was their second 30-point loss of the season, but Golden State has a history of bouncing back quickly after bad games.

• Injury Struggles: Losing Jonathan Kuminga to a sprained ankle has left the Warriors shorthanded. Dennis Schroder and Buddy Hield were expected to step up, but they combined for just 10 points on 4-of-14 shooting against Sacramento.
• Looney’s Confidence: Veteran Kevon Looney isn’t worried about the team bouncing back:”We’ve got a lot of competitive guys who hate losing, so we’re definitely going to shake this off and play a lot better.”
• What’s on the Line?: Golden State is 3-4 in their last seven home games, and they’ll be looking to get back to winning in front of their fans.

Head-to-Head History

• Last season, the teams split their games, with each winning on the road. The Heat pulled off a 114-102 win in San Francisco, even without Butler, thanks to big performances from Cain and Jovic.
• Butler hasn’t played against the Warriors since November 2022, so his absence is nothing new for Golden State.

What to Watch For

• Why the Heat Could Win: Miami’s defense is their backbone, and even without Butler, they’ve shown they can battle. Cain and Jovic have stepped up against the Warriors before, and they might need to do it again.
• Why the Warriors Could Win: Golden State has fresher legs after two days off, and they’re usually great at bouncing back after bad losses. Add in the home crowd, and they’ll have some extra motivation.

The Bottom Line

This is a classic matchup of resilience vs. redemption. The Heat are trying to fight through fatigue and adversity, while the Warriors are looking to shake off their inconsistency and protect their home floor.

Will Miami’s defense keep them in it, or will Golden State’s stars shine through? Either way, it’s shaping up to be a hard-fought battle in San Francisco.