Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

At 6:00 ET, the Memphis Grizzlies (-130) will host the Denver Nuggets (+110) in a Western Conference matchup. Memphis is currently favored by 2 and has lost two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 227.5.

This game will be played at FedExForum in Memphis and can be seen on ALT.

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
• Where: Memphis at FedExForum
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds MEM -2, DEN +110 | MEM -130 O/U 227.5

The Nuggets Can Win If…

Denver’s record dropped to 7-4 after a 101-94 loss to the Pelicans on Friday. The Nuggets, who were favored by 2 points, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 195 points fell well short of the 217.5-point line.

A key moment came when the Pelicans went on a 12-0 run, turning an 18-13 deficit into a 25-18 lead. Denver fought back in the 2nd quarter, outscoring New Orleans 32-27, but couldn’t close the gap after entering the 4th quarter down 78-72.

In their 101-94 loss to the Pelicans, the Nuggets struggled offensively, shooting just 42.5% from the field and hitting only 27% of their threes, making 10 from deep. Michael Porter Jr. led the way, knocking down 4 threes at a 57.1% clip, finishing with 24 points, including 14 in the 2nd quarter.

Peyton Watson contributed 18 points, while Jamal Murray added 16, with 9 of those coming in the 4th quarter. Murray also dished out 8 assists, despite shooting 37.5% from the floor and 25% from three.

Despite a strong defensive effort, the Nuggets couldn’t overcome the Pelicans, allowing 101 points in the loss. Denver gave up 32 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up in the 3rd, holding New Orleans to just 19 points.

The Nuggets held the Pelicans to 42% shooting, including 31% from three, with New Orleans hitting 11 threes. Denver sent the Pelicans to the line 18 times, where they made 16 free throws. The Nuggets also recorded 10 steals in the game.

• In their last five games away from home, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 110 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 3-2.
• Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-1-1 vs. the spread.

The Grizzlies Can Win If…

Memphis fell to 7-6 on the season after a 123-118 loss to the Warriors on Friday. The Grizzlies, who were +7 point underdogs, managed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 241, surpassing the 236.5 O/U line.

Memphis trailed 93-78 going into the 4th quarter but made a strong push, outscoring Golden State 40-30 in the final period. A 10-0 run helped them extend their lead from 117-98 to 127-98.

The Grizzlies struggled from beyond the arc in their 123-118 loss to the Warriors, hitting just 7 threes at a 16.7% clip. Overall, they shot 40.8% from the field.

Jaren Jackson Jr. led the way with 32 points, including 11 in the 4th quarter. Desmond Bane added 8 of his 18 points in the final period, while Jaylen Wells scored 10 of his 16 points in the 4th.

Defensively, the Grizzlies had a strong 2nd quarter but struggled in the 3rd, giving up 38 points in their 123-118 loss to the Warriors. Memphis allowed Golden State to shoot 43% from the field.

The Grizzlies had trouble defending the three, where the Warriors hit 19 threes at a 41% clip. Memphis sent Golden State to the line 25 times, where they made 18 free throws. The Grizzlies recorded 8 steals and 11 blocks.

• In their last ten games at home, the Grizzlies have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 115 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Grizzlies have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 3-0.
• In their last three games, the Grizzlies have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 3-0 vs. the spread.

The Lean

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Grizzlies to secure the win, with an expected final score of 146-107. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -2.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 227.5, and our model predicts the Nuggets and Grizzlies to score a combined 253 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Healthier Grizzlies to Face Nuggets, Who Could Be Short-Handed

The Memphis Grizzlies are inching closer to full strength as they prepare to host the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. With the recent return of Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Vince Williams Jr., Memphis is getting key pieces back just as the team seeks to find consistency in the season.

Grizzlies Reclaim Depth Despite Ja Morant’s Absence

While the Grizzlies (4-7) remain without Ja Morant as he recovers from a right hip injury sustained earlier this month, their roster looks more complete than it has in weeks.

• Desmond Bane, who returned from an oblique strain Friday, provided an instant boost off the bench with 18 points in his first non-start since 2021.
• Marcus Smart, sidelined since October with an ankle injury, contributed nine points and six assists, offering much-needed veteran leadership.
• Reserve Vince Williams Jr., playing his first game of the season after a preseason shin injury, chipped in with nine points and five rebounds.

Despite the reinforcements, Memphis struggled in its 123-118 loss to Golden State on Friday, particularly from beyond the arc. The Grizzlies shot a dismal 7-of-42 (16.7%) from three-point range, marking one of their worst performances in franchise history.

“We just couldn’t get the shots to fall early on,” said head coach Taylor Jenkins. “By the time we found our rhythm in the fourth quarter, it was too late.”

Nuggets Struggle Without Nikola Jokic

The Denver Nuggets (9-2) enter Sunday’s matchup on shaky ground, having dropped their NBA Cup debut to the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. Playing without Nikola Jokic, who missed the game due to personal reasons, Denver was overwhelmed on the boards, getting outrebounded 56-38.

Dario Saric stepped into the starting lineup for Jokic, posting nine points, eight rebounds, and five assists. However, his efforts weren’t enough to replicate Jokic’s all-around impact.

“It’s impossible to fill Nikola’s shoes,” Saric admitted. “I tried to do my best, but there’s always room to improve, especially in reading defensive adjustments.”

Jokic’s availability for Sunday remains uncertain, leaving the Nuggets potentially vulnerable against a Grizzlies team eager to capitalize on their increasing depth.

Key Matchups

• Desmond Bane vs. Denver Defense: Bane’s ability to score and facilitate will test a Denver defense that thrives on Jokic’s presence to anchor the paint.
• Memphis Frontcourt vs. Denver Rebounders: After Denver allowed 17 offensive rebounds to New Orleans, Memphis bigs like Jaren Jackson Jr. will look to exploit the glass.
• Dario Saric vs. Grizzlies Interior: Should Jokic remain out, Saric’s ability to distribute and defend will be critical against Memphis’ aggressive style.

What to Watch

Memphis’ Shooting Woes

The Grizzlies must rediscover their perimeter touch after a catastrophic performance against Golden State. Look for shooters like Luke Kennard to step up alongside Bane.

Denver’s Depth Without Jokic

Even if Jokic plays, Denver will need contributions from its role players, particularly in limiting Memphis’ offensive rebounding and transition play.

Momentum Shift for Memphis?

With reinforcements back, Memphis has a chance to reset its season trajectory, especially against a Denver team that might be less than full strength.

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Prediction

With Memphis gaining momentum from returning players and Denver potentially without Jokic, the Grizzlies are positioned to grab a pivotal win at home.

Final Score: Grizzlies 112, Nuggets 107