Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets Picks and Predictions October 23rd 2024

Hawks vs Nets October 23rd 2024

At 7:30 ET, the Hawks (-318) will host the Nets (+257) in an Eastern Conference matchup. Last season, Brooklyn finished 11th in the East with a record of 32-50, while Atlanta went 36-46 and placed 10th in the conference.

State Farm Arena in Atlanta will be the site of this game. The over/under line for this matchup is currently set at 221.5 points. YES will televise this game.

Nets vs. Hawks Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks
• Where: Atlanta at State Farm Arena
• Date: Wednesday, October 23rd
• Betting Odds ATL -7.5, BKN +257 | ATL -318 O/U 221.5

The Nets Can Win If…

Last season, the Nets finished 32-50, placing 11th in the Eastern Conference. They were 24-28 in conference play and 5-11 in divisional games, finishing 4th in the Atlantic Division. Heading into this season, we have Brooklyn ranked 27th in our power rankings, with an 11.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Brooklyn was 20-21 at home last season, with a +1.3 average scoring margin, but struggled on the road, going 12-29 with a -7.0 margin. Against the spread, they were 27-55, and they were 18-8 straight-up when favored. Their average O/U line was 224.6 points, and they had a 40-42 O/U record, with their games averaging 223.6 points per game.

Brooklyn enters the season ranked 25th in our offensive power rankings after finishing last year with 110.4 points per game, placing 25th. The Nets averaged 96.7 possessions per game (24th) and 89.1 field goal attempts per game (16th), shooting 45.6% from the field (28th). They ranked 9th in three-pointers made per game (13.3) and attempted 36.7 threes per game (9th), shooting 36.2% from beyond the arc (19th). Brooklyn averaged 20.9 free throw attempts per game (20th), making 75.6% (28th), and they were 7th in offensive rebounds per game (11.4).

Cam Thomas is projected to lead the team in scoring, ranking 24th in our league-wide projections. He also ranks 39th in projected three-pointers made. Dennis Schröder, who averaged 14 points and 6.1 assists last season, is projected to be 4th on the team in scoring. Bojan Bogdanovic, acquired from the Knicks, is projected to be 2nd on the team in scoring and 3-point shooting but will miss the season opener. Cameron Johnson is projected to lead the team in 3-pointers made, ranking 31st in our league-wide projections.

Brooklyn comes into this season ranked 22nd in our defensive power rankings after allowing 113.3 points per game last year, placing them 15th in the NBA. They also ranked 15th in field-goal percentage allowed, at 47.1%, and were 21st in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 37% from beyond the arc. Inside the paint, they were more effective, holding teams to 53.8% shooting, the 7th-best mark in the league.

Nicolas Claxton is one of the NBA’s top shot-blockers, and Brooklyn ranked 12th in blocked shots last season. They were 20th in defensive rebounding, and will be without Bojan Bogdanovic, one of their better rebounders. However, Ben Simmons and Cameron Johnson are expected to help on the boards.

• Although Brooklyn has a straight up record of 2-3 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 104 points per game in these games.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Nets have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
• Over their last three games, the Nets have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Hawks Can Win If…

Atlanta finished last season with a 36-46 record, placing 10th in the Eastern Conference. They were 21-20 at home but struggled on the road, going 15-26. The Hawks were 3rd in their division with an 8-8 record. Heading into this season, they are ranked 21st in our power rankings, with a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs and an 8.6% chance of winning their division.

The Hawks were 27-55 against the spread last season, with an average O/U line of 235.2 points per game. Their games averaged 238.8 points, and they had a 46-36 O/U record. Atlanta was favored in 42 games, going 24-18 straight-up but just 15-27 ATS.

Ranked 11th in our preseason offensive power rankings, the Hawks finished last season 5th in points per game (118.3) and possessions per game (100.2). They were 2nd in field goal attempts per game (92.5) but 20th in field goal percentage (46.5%). Atlanta was 7th in both three-point attempts (37.7) and free throw attempts (23.2) per game, making 13.7 threes per game (6th) and shooting 79.7% from the line (8th). They also ranked 3rd in offensive rebounds per game (12.5).

Trae Young, who averaged 25.7 points and 10.8 assists last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring, ranking 13th in our league-wide projections. Bogdan Bogdanovic is projected to be Atlanta’s top three-point shooter, ranking 11th in our league-wide projections. Jalen Johnson, De’Andre Hunter, and rookie Zaccharie Risacher round out our top five in projected scoring for the Hawks.

Defensively, the Hawks are coming off a rough season, ranking 27th in our defensive power rankings after allowing 120.5 points per game, which was 28th in the NBA. Opponents shot 49.6% from the field against them, and Atlanta allowed a league-worst 38.7% shooting from three-point range.

Clint Capela remains one of the NBA’s top rebounders, while Jalen Johnson is also strong on the boards. The Hawks ranked 22nd in defensive rebounding and 26th in blocked shots, with Onyeka Okongwu providing additional support in both areas.

• Across the Hawks last five home games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 129. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4, while going 0-5 straight-up.
• Over the team’s last three games as the favorite, the Hawks struggled vs the spread going just 1-2. However, they still had a straight up mark of 2-1.
• In their last five games, the Hawks have an over/under record of 5-0 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Hawks is our pick to not only win with a projected score of 134-108. But we also favor them to cover the spread. Our bet is on the Hawks at -7.5.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 221.5 and given that our model is projecting 242 points between the teams, we like the over.

NBA Picks & Previews

Hawks Prioritize Defensive Improvement as They Open Season Against Rebuilding Nets

Since their impressive run to the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2020-21 season, the Atlanta Hawks have seen their defensive capabilities decline, despite the offensive brilliance of star guard Trae Young. Entering the 2023-24 NBA season, the Hawks are looking to refocus on defense under head coach Quin Snyder, who begins his second full season at the helm. Their season kicks off on Wednesday against a rebuilding Brooklyn Nets team, who have lowered expectations after major roster changes.

Atlanta Hawks: The Need for Defensive Revival

Defensive Regression: The Hawks’ defense has steadily worsened since their 2021 Eastern Conference Finals appearance. Back in that season, they ranked 12th in scoring defense, allowing 111.4 points per game, which helped propel them to a 41-31 record. However, in the seasons that followed, their defense has unraveled. Last season, Atlanta’s defensive numbers were alarming—they ranked 28th in scoring defense, giving up 120.5 points per game, and allowed opponents to shoot a staggering 49.5% from the field, the third-highest in the league. These defensive struggles contributed to a disappointing 36-46 record and a first-round exit via the play-in tournament.

Quin Snyder’s Defensive Strategy: The Hawks are betting on significant defensive improvement this season under Quin Snyder. After taking over midseason last year, Snyder now has a full offseason to instill his defensive philosophy. His goal is to restore the defensive energy that helped the Hawks compete at a high level just a few seasons ago. Snyder has acknowledged that for Atlanta to reach its potential, it cannot rely solely on the offensive prowess of Trae Young and other scorers.

Offseason Moves to Strengthen Defense

Key Roster Changes: The Hawks made some critical changes in the offseason to address their defensive weaknesses. They traded guard Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for young defensive standout Dyson Daniels and veteran forward Larry Nance Jr. Both players bring defensive intensity, which the Hawks sorely need.

• Dyson Daniels: Daniels is expected to take on the role of guarding the opponent’s top perimeter scorers. During the preseason, he showcased his defensive versatility, effectively limiting top players like Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
• Larry Nance Jr.: Known for his rebounding and interior defense, Nance is expected to help anchor the Hawks’ frontcourt alongside center Clint Capela. His presence will be key in contesting shots in the paint and improving Atlanta’s defensive rebounding, areas where the team struggled last season.

Trae Young’s Role and Defensive Balance

While Trae Young remains the focal point of the Hawks’ offense, averaging 25.7 points per game last season, his impact on defense has been a challenge. Young’s style of play has often led to mismatches and left the Hawks vulnerable to perimeter scoring. The hope is that with Dyson Daniels taking on the tough defensive assignments, Young can focus more on playmaking and efficient scoring.

Clint Capela, the Hawks’ defensive anchor in the paint, believes the addition of scrappy perimeter defenders like Daniels will make his job easier. “It helps me when I see guards who are active defensively. It allows me to stay focused on protecting the rim,” Capela said, highlighting the importance of a cohesive team defense.

Brooklyn Nets: A Rebuilding Year with Lower Expectations

The Brooklyn Nets, on the other hand, are entering the 2023-24 season with significantly lower expectations than in previous years. Following five consecutive playoff appearances fueled by the acquisitions of superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets have now shifted into a rebuilding phase. Both Durant and Irving requested trades last season, leaving Brooklyn to focus on developing younger talent.

Major Roster Changes: Brooklyn made a bold decision in the offseason by trading star forward Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks for five first-round draft picks. This signals a long-term rebuilding strategy rather than competing immediately for a playoff spot.

Player Development Focus: With a young core, the Nets will rely heavily on the growth of players like fourth-year guard Cam Thomas. Thomas, who saw his scoring average jump to 22.5 points per game last season, is expected to be the team’s primary offensive option. His offensive development will be a focal point for Brooklyn as they navigate this transitional period.

Brooklyn’s Defensive Concerns and Key Players

Ben Simmons’ Health: The Nets are also hopeful that Ben Simmons can finally stay healthy and contribute. Since being acquired from the Philadelphia 76ers in 2022, Simmons has played only 57 games for the Nets, with recurring back issues severely limiting his availability. Last season, he averaged just 6.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 23.9 minutes across 15 games. If Simmons can return to form, his defensive versatility could help stabilize Brooklyn’s defense, particularly with his ability to guard multiple positions.

Nic Claxton: Another key player for Brooklyn will be center Nic Claxton, who recently signed a four-year contract extension. Claxton is coming off a season where he averaged 10.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. His rim protection and rebounding will be crucial, especially as the Nets look to establish a more solid defensive identity.

Contrasting Team Goals: Hawks Aim to Contend, Nets Focus on Rebuild

As the Hawks and Nets open the season, their objectives could not be more different.

• Atlanta Hawks: With the offensive firepower of Trae Young, the veteran presence of Clint Capela, and the new defensive additions of Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks are aiming to reclaim their status as playoff contenders. Their success this season will hinge on how quickly they can tighten up defensively under Snyder’s leadership.
• Brooklyn Nets: The Nets are in a rebuilding phase, focusing on developing young talent and building for the future. Without the pressure of immediate playoff contention, the team has the freedom to experiment with their lineup and give extended minutes to promising players like Cam Thomas and Nic Claxton.

Brooklyn’s success will depend on whether they can stay competitive while laying the groundwork for future seasons.

Conclusion

The Hawks enter the 2023-24 season with a clear focus: improve their defense and return to being playoff contenders. Meanwhile, the Nets are in the early stages of a rebuild, with a focus on player development and future assets. As the season opener approaches, all eyes will be on how these two teams—with vastly different goals—perform on the court. Will Atlanta’s new defensive additions bring immediate results, or will Brooklyn’s youthful core rise to the occasion?

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