Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Picks and Predictions October 30th 2024

Heat vs Knicks October 30th 2024

At 7:30 ET, the Knicks (-126) will travel to Miami to take on the Heat (+106). New York is currently favored by 2 points, and the over/under line is set at 214.5.

This Eastern Conference matchup will be played at the Kaseya Center and can be seen on MSG.

Knicks vs. Heat Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: New York Knicks at Miami Heat
• Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
• Date: Wednesday, October 30th
• Betting Odds NY -2, NY -126 | MIA +106 O/U 214.5

The Knicks Can Win If…

The Knicks fell to 1-2 on the season after a 110-104 home loss to the Cavaliers on Monday. New York, favored by 3 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 214 points fell short of the 222.5-point over/under line.

After a slow start, the Knicks took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring Cleveland 34-23. However, they couldn’t hold onto their 78-74 lead going into the 4th quarter, where they were outscored 36-26.

In their 110-104 loss to the Cavaliers, the Knicks struggled offensively, shooting 44.4% from the field and hitting just 9 threes at a 32.1% clip. Jalen Brunson led the way with 21 points, 9 of which came in the 4th quarter, despite shooting only 33.3%.

Mikal Bridges added 19 points, scoring 9 in the 3rd quarter, while Josh Hart contributed 16 points and 13 rebounds, making 2 threes at 40%. Miles McBride also chipped in 7 of his 14 points in the 2nd quarter.

The Knicks held the Cavaliers to 22 points in the 1st quarter and 23 in the 2nd but struggled defensively in the 4th, giving up 36 points in their 110-104 loss. Overall, New York allowed Cleveland to shoot 47% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Knicks limited the Cavaliers to 12 made threes on 33% shooting. Cleveland also went 20/24 from the free-throw line. Defensively, the Knicks recorded 8 steals and 3 blocks.

• Across the Knicks last five road games, the team averaged 105 points per game while allowing 119. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 1-4 straight-up.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Knicks have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.
• Over their last five games, the Knicks have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat improved to 2-1 on the season with a 106-98 win over the Pistons on Monday. Miami was favored by 8.5 points but didn’t cover the spread, and the game’s total of 204 points fell short of the 219.5-point over/under line.

After trailing 30-28 in the 1st quarter, Miami took control with a 36-23 2nd quarter. However, the Pistons responded by outscoring the Heat 26-14 in the 3rd. Miami then went on a 15-0 run in the 4th quarter, turning a 79-78 deficit into a 93-79 lead, and closed out the game by outscoring Detroit 28-19 in the final period.

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 21 points and 7 assists in their 110-104 loss to the Cavaliers, despite shooting just 33.3% from the field. Mikal Bridges added 19 points, hitting 60% of his shots, while Josh Hart contributed 16 points and 13 rebounds, knocking down 2 threes at a 40% clip.

The Knicks struggled from beyond the arc, making only 9 threes on 32.1% shooting, and finished with a 44.4% field goal percentage overall. Brunson scored 9 of his 21 points in the 4th quarter, while Bridges also added 9 points in the final period.

The Heat’s defense tightened up after a shaky 1st quarter, allowing just 19 points in the 4th to secure a 106-98 win over the Pistons. Overall, they held Detroit to 38% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pistons hit 14 threes at a 36% clip. Miami sent Detroit to the line 17 times, where they made 14 free throws. The Heat also recorded 14 steals and 3 blocks.

• Although Miami has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 8-2. The team averaged 108 points per game in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 0-3 in their last three games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 0-3 in these matchups.
• In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +2, the Heat is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 214.5 and given that our model is projecting 254 points between the teams, we like the over.

NBA Basketball picks

As the New York Knicks prepare to take on the Miami Heat, they’re navigating early-season struggles despite an exciting offseason. With star additions like Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, the Knicks hoped to enhance their depth and firepower. Yet, injuries and chemistry issues have kept the team from hitting its stride. Meanwhile, the Heat, anchored by Jimmy Butler’s intense defense and leadership, aim to leverage their momentum to gain an edge in Wednesday night’s matchup.

Knicks’ Offseason Additions and Early Struggles

The Knicks entered the season with high expectations after acquiring Towns and Bridges, but the team’s depth has been tested early. Center Mitchell Robinson remains out with a lingering ankle injury, while power forward Precious Achiuwa, a former Miami Heat first-round pick, strained his left hamstring in the final preseason game and has yet to make his season debut. Robinson’s continued absence, coupled with Achiuwa’s 2-4 week recovery window, leaves the Knicks thin in the paint and missing two key defensive players.

Adding to their challenges, starting wing Josh Hart’s status is uncertain after injuring his ankle in Monday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks struggled to hold their own in that game, ultimately falling 110-104. With Hart’s 16-point, 13-rebound performance cut short, guard Jalen Brunson highlighted the difficulty of playing shorthanded: “You want your brothers out there finishing the game with you,” he said postgame.

Adjusting to Towns’ Arrival and Chemistry Concerns

While Towns is known as one of the league’s top perimeter-shooting big men, integrating him into the Knicks’ lineup has posed challenges. Though he has impressive shooting stats—93.3% from the free-throw line and 66.7% from beyond the arc—he ranks fourth on the team in scoring, averaging 15.3 points per game. His efficiency within the arc, however, has dipped to 45.5% compared to his career average of 56.9%, underscoring the team’s need for smoother playmaking.

Losing Donte DiVincenzo, a reliable three-point shooter who led the Knicks last season with 283 made three-pointers, has also impacted team spacing and offensive rhythm. Brunson, who tops the team in both points (23.0) and assists (4.7) per game, appears to be adjusting to new dynamics without DiVincenzo’s floor-spacing presence. For the Knicks, maximizing the strengths of Towns and Bridges while building cohesion remains a work in progress.

Miami Heat’s Steady Defense and Jimmy Butler’s Leadership

The Heat, on the other hand, have found early success after a shaky season opener, winning their last two games against Charlotte and Detroit. Miami’s defense has been a driving force, with Butler stepping up to anchor both ends of the court. In their latest win over Detroit, Butler led the way with four of the Heat’s 15 steals, emphasizing Miami’s commitment to a high-intensity defensive style. This aggressive defense sets the tone for Miami’s play and gives them a significant advantage in transition scoring.

Though Butler had a quiet start against Orlando, where he scored just three points with minimal defensive impact, he rebounded over the next two games, averaging 24.5 points, 3.0 steals, and an impressive 14 free-throw attempts per game. “I’m not going to get away from my game because of the way people would like us to play,” Butler stated. “I have to be on the attack.” His assertive approach not only elevates his performance but also energizes his teammates.

Heat’s Conditioning and Defensive Tenacity

Beyond tactics, Miami’s dedication to physical conditioning is a foundational part of their approach. Butler notes, “We’re in better shape than a lot of guys around the league. We’ve always taken pride in that.” This conditioning advantage translates into strong finishes and consistent defensive pressure across games.

Butler’s defensive intensity is highlighted by his calculated risk-taking for steals, as a five-time All-Defensive Team member. His aggressive style, which he calls “gambling” for steals, is a high-reward approach that Miami encourages for its impact in disrupting opponents. Butler’s success in this approach—landing steals on four out of six gambles on average—creates opportunities for Miami to control the game’s pace and maximize possessions.

Knicks vs. Heat: What to Expect

The Knicks and Heat enter Wednesday’s game on opposite paths, with the Knicks managing injury concerns and working to integrate new players, while Miami is leaning into its seasoned defense and fitness. If the Knicks struggle to establish chemistry and maintain depth, Butler’s intensity and Miami’s defense-focused play could prove too much for them to handle.

For the Knicks to stand a chance, they’ll need to prioritize protecting the paint without Robinson, optimize Towns’ shot efficiency, and ensure that Brunson and Bridges can generate consistent offense. On the other side, the Heat will look to Butler to set the tone defensively and drive offense through aggressive play, capitalizing on the Knicks’ limited depth.

With Butler leading the charge, Miami’s mix of defense and conditioning gives them an edge, especially against a Knicks squad still seeking balance. This matchup could reveal whether the Knicks can overcome their early obstacles—or if the Heat’s cohesion and Butler’s influence will push them toward another win.

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