Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic Picks and Predictions October 23rd 2024

Heat vs Magic October 23rd 2024

At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat (-129) will host the Orlando Magic (+109) in an Eastern Southeast division matchup. The over/under line is set at 208.5 points.

Last year, the Magic (47-35) finished 5th in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Southeast Division. The Heat (46-36) were 8th in the East and 2nd in the Southeast.

Magic vs. Heat Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
• Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
• Date: Wednesday, October 23rd
• Betting Odds MIA -2, ORL +109 | MIA -129 O/U 208.5

The Magic Can Win If…

Orlando finished last season with a 47-35 record, placing 5th in the Eastern Conference. They were strong at home, going 29-12 with a +7.6 point differential, but struggled on the road, finishing 18-23. The Magic went 9-7 in division play, which was good enough for 1st place in the Southeast Division.

Heading into this season, we have Orlando ranked 20th in our power rankings, with a 47.6% chance of making the playoffs. Last year, they went 44-38 against the spread and 38-44 on over/unders, with their games averaging 218.9 points. When favored, they were 29-9 straight-up and 26-12 ATS.

Last season, the Magic ranked 26th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 110.5 points per game (24th). They played at a slower pace, with 96.6 possessions per game (26th), and attempted 84.9 field goals per game (30th), shooting 47.6% (15th). Orlando made 11.0 three-pointers per game (30th) on 31.3 attempts (29th), hitting 35.2% (24th). They led the league in free throw attempts per game (24.4) but ranked 26th in free throw percentage (75.9%).

Paolo Banchero, who averaged 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring, ranking 19th in the league. Franz Wagner, who scored 19.7 points per game last year, is projected to be 43rd. The Magic added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is projected to lead the team in three-pointers made, ranking 63rd in the league.

Orlando was one of the top defensive teams in the NBA last season, finishing 5th in points allowed, at 108.4 per game. We have them ranked 5th in our defensive power rankings heading into this season. They were 10th in three-point percentage allowed, at 35.7%, but struggled on the boards, ranking 25th in defensive rebounding. Wendell Carter Jr. and Paolo Banchero are expected to lead the rebounding effort, with Franz Wagner also contributing.

Orlando averaged 8.2 steals per game last season, ranking 5th in the NBA, and they were 13th in blocked shots, with 5.2 per game. Opponents shot 47.5% from the field against them, placing them 18th in field-goal percentage allowed.

• In their last ten games away from home, the Magic have a straight up record of 2-8 while going 3-7 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 102 points per game in these contests.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Orlando has an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 2-8 straight up.
• Over their last three games, the Magic have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

Ranked 10th in our preseason power rankings, the Heat enter the season with a 90.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 73.0% chance of winning the Southeast Division. Last season, Miami finished 46-36, placing 2nd in the division and 8th in the Eastern Conference. They were 22-19 at home and 24-17 on the road.

Against the spread, the Heat went 34-45, with a 35-13 record when favored. They were favored in 48 games, covering in 23. Their average O/U line was 220.7 points, and they averaged 218.5 points per game, finishing with a 35-47 O/U record.

Miami enters the season ranked 15th in our offensive power rankings after finishing 26th in points per game (110.1) last season. The Heat were 29th in possessions per game (95.8) and 28th in field goal attempts per game (85.6), shooting 46.5% (22nd). They attempted 33.7 three-pointers per game (18th), making 12.5 (19th) with a 37.0% accuracy (12th). Miami was 5th in free throw percentage (81.8%) and 13th in attempts per game (22.0), while ranking 26th in offensive rebounds per game (9.3).

Jimmy Butler, who averaged 20.8 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists last season, is projected to lead Miami in scoring, ranking 40th in our league-wide projections. Bam Adebayo, who averaged 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds, is projected 48th. Tyler Herro is projected 49th in points and 23rd in made threes. Alec Burks joins from the Knicks, where he averaged 10.4 points per game last season.

Last season, the Heat allowed 108.4 points per game, ranking 4th in the NBA, and they come into this season ranked 3rd in our defensive power rankings. Miami held opponents to 35.4% shooting from three-point range, ranking 6th in the league, and were 16th in defensive rebounding. Bam Adebayo remains one of the NBA’s top shot-blockers, while Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are strong rebounders for their positions.

Opponents shot 46.9% from the field against Miami last year, placing them 10th in field-goal percentage allowed, and they ranked 16th in effective field-goal percentage defense. The Heat were last in blocked shots, averaging 3.4 per game.

• When looking at their past three home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 96 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Heat have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 3-0.
• In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Heat, with a final score of 148-119, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Heat at -2.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 208.5, and our model projects the Magic and Heat to reach a combined total of 267 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

NBA Picks & Previews

Heat Look to Defy Expectations in Bounce-Back Season Opener vs. Rising Magic

The Miami Heat, once a dominant force in the NBA, find themselves in an unfamiliar position as they enter the 2024-25 season. Despite making the NBA Finals just two seasons ago, many analysts are projecting a down year for the franchise, including ESPN, which ranked the Heat 18th out of 30 teams in its season preview. However, with a talented core and the return of key players, the Heat are determined to prove the doubters wrong, beginning with their season opener against the Orlando Magic.

The Heat-Magic matchup will mark the 35th anniversary of the first-ever clash between the two Florida rivals. Though Orlando won that initial meeting in November 1989, Miami has dominated the all-time series with an 82-61 advantage. Last season, the Heat won three of their four meetings with the Magic, but this year’s matchup feels different, as both teams head in contrasting directions.

Miami Heat: Aiming to Prove Critics Wrong

Low Expectations for a Proud Franchise:
The Heat are entering the new season with tempered expectations due to their quiet offseason and early playoff exit last season. While Miami retained key players, they did not make the splashy moves that some fans hoped for. ESPN’s low ranking reflects the skepticism surrounding Miami’s ability to contend in a competitive Eastern Conference, but head coach Erik Spoelstra and Heat president Pat Riley have other ideas.

Offseason Moves and Retaining Core Talent:
One of the Heat’s major offseason losses was forward Caleb Martin, who departed in free agency. Miami’s biggest acquisition was veteran guard Alec Burks, while they also added young center Kel’el Ware via the draft. However, the Heat made an important statement by re-signing two key veterans: Bam Adebayo, who signed a three-year extension, and Kevin Love, returning on a two-year deal.

Star Power and Experience at the Core:
Miami’s success will rely heavily on the performance of their core trio: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Butler, the heart and soul of the team, is looking to bounce back after an injury-shortened campaign. Herro, known for his scoring prowess, also missed time due to injury last season. Adebayo, at 27, is entering the prime of his career and is expected to anchor the Heat on both ends of the floor.

Veterans like Kevin Love and Terry Rozier are poised to step up in starting roles, while key contributors such as Duncan Robinson (known for his 3-point shooting) and Haywood Highsmith (defensive specialist) will play vital roles. Emerging young talent like Jaime Jaquez Jr., entering his second year, adds depth to the roster.

Heat Culture and Pat Riley’s Call for Urgency:
“Heat Culture” has been synonymous with resilience, hard work, and toughness. Pat Riley, the legendary Heat president, emphasized that this season should not be taken lightly by the players. “They should know that this is a crucial year for them,” Riley remarked. With many of the same players from their 2023 NBA Finals run still in place, the Heat are well aware that they must perform with a sense of urgency.

Orlando Magic: A Team on the Rise

Orlando’s Momentum Continues to Build:
In contrast to Miami’s relatively quiet offseason, the Orlando Magic come into the 2024-25 season with growing optimism. After winning 47 games last season—their best since 2010-11—the Magic have steadily improved under head coach Jamahl Mosley. Mosley has increased the team’s win total in each of his first three seasons, positioning the Magic as one of the league’s most promising young teams.

Young Stars Lead the Charge:
Orlando’s youthful core, headlined by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, has the team set up for sustained success. Banchero, 21, was an All-Star last season and led the Magic in scoring with 22.6 points per game. Wagner, 23, wasn’t far behind, averaging 19.7 points per game, and his all-around play has made him a foundational piece for the franchise.

The Magic’s backcourt is anchored by Jalen Suggs, 23, who earned NBA All-Defensive Second Team honors last season while chipping in 12.6 points per game. These three players—Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs—were Orlando’s top scorers and started at least 72 games each last season, providing stability and leadership for the young roster.

Addressing Weaknesses in the Offseason:
One area the Magic struggled with last season was their 3-point shooting. They ranked at the bottom of the league, tied for the fewest made 3-pointers per game (11.0) and finishing in the bottom third for shooting percentage from beyond the arc (35.2%). Orlando addressed this issue by signing veteran shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who brings championship experience after winning a title with the Denver Nuggets in 2023. Caldwell-Pope, a career 36.9% 3-point shooter, connected on 40.6% of his shots from deep last season, providing Orlando with the outside shooting threat they desperately needed.

Long-Term Commitment to Core Players:
The Magic have also solidified their future by extending the contracts of several key players. Franz Wagner signed a five-year, $224 million extension, while Jalen Suggs inked a five-year, $150.5 million deal. Forward Jonathan Isaac and center Wendell Carter Jr. also received contract extensions, underscoring Orlando’s commitment to its young core.

Key Themes for the Season Opener

Heat’s Battle to Reclaim Dominance:
With low external expectations but high internal pressure, the Miami Heat are looking to kick off their season by reminding everyone why they’ve been perennial contenders. With their core healthy and motivated, the Heat’s veteran leadership and experience could give them an edge over the Magic in this opening matchup.

Magic’s Quest to Build on Success:
For the Magic, this game is a chance to assert themselves as a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. They’ve been steadily improving under Jamahl Mosley, and with a young, talented roster and key offseason additions, they’re hungry to start the season on the right foot.

This season opener between the Heat and Magic not only reignites a Florida rivalry but also serves as a litmus test for two teams at different stages of development. The Heat will look to silence their critics with a bounce-back campaign, while the Magic aim to continue their upward trajectory and establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with.

Conclusion

As the Miami Heat prepare to defy expectations and the Orlando Magic seek to build on their rising momentum, the stage is set for an exciting showdown. Both teams have something to prove, and this early-season test will provide fans with a glimpse of what’s to come in the 2024-25 NBA season.

ScoresandStats | The Edge You’ve Been Looking For