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At 6:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-146) will host the Dallas Mavericks (+124) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line is currently set at 221.5 points.
Miami (-3) is 6-7 on the season and is currently 6th in the Eastern Conference. Dallas (+3) is 9-7 overall and is 9th in the Western Conference. The Mavericks have won four straight games.
Mavericks vs. Heat Key Information
- Sport: NBA
- Teams: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
- Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
- Date: Sunday, November 24th
- Betting Odds MIA -3, DAL +124 | MIA -146 O/U 221.5
The Mavericks Can Win If…
The Mavericks improved to 9-7 after a 123-120 road win over the Nuggets on Friday. Dallas, who entered the game as +5 point underdogs, not only won but also covered the spread. The total score of 243 points exceeded the O/U line of 229 by 14 points.
Dallas took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring Denver 40-22. The Nuggets responded with a 13-0 run, cutting the score from 81-64 to 81-77. Heading into the 4th quarter with a 95-89 lead, the Mavericks held on despite being outscored 31-28 in the final period.
Naji Marshall’s efficient 26-point performance on 73.3% shooting, including 3 made threes at 75%, led the Mavericks to a 123-120 win over the Nuggets. P.J. Washington added 22 points and 13 rebounds, while Kyrie Irving contributed 19 points despite shooting just 36.8% from the field.
Dallas connected on 10 threes at a 37% clip, shooting 50.5% overall. Marshall scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter, while Irving added 13 in the period. P.J. Washington came through in the 4th, scoring 9 points.
Defensively, the Mavericks had a strong 2nd quarter but struggled in the 3rd, giving up 36 points. Overall, they allowed 120 points on 47% shooting from the field.
Dallas had trouble defending the three, with the Nuggets hitting 15 threes at a 51% rate. The Mavericks also sent Denver to the line 29 times, where they made 19 free throws. Dallas finished with 11 steals and 5 blocks.
- In their last three road games, Dallas has averaged 119 points per game while allowing 118. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
- As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 2-1.
- Over their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.
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The Heat Can Win If…
With a 106-89 win over the 76ers on Monday, the Heat improved to 6-7 for the season. Miami, favored by 2.5 points, covered the spread at home. The total points for the game were 195, falling short of the 212.5 O/U line.
After trailing 33-25 after the 1st quarter, Miami turned things around by outscoring Philadelphia 28-23 in the 2nd quarter. An 11-0 run broke a 62-62 tie, and the Heat dominated the 3rd quarter 35-16. They held the 76ers to 17 points in the 4th quarter, allowing just 33 points in the 2nd half.
Jimmy Butler led the Heat to a win over the 76ers, scoring 30 points with 10 rebounds and 5 assists, shooting 66.7% from the field. Tyler Herro added 18 points, and Duncan Robinson contributed 13.
Miami shot 41.4% from the field and 29.5% from three, hitting 13 threes. Herro scored 16 points in the 3rd quarter, while Butler had 11 in the 1st.
After a rough start, the Heat’s defense locked in, holding the 76ers to just 56 points over the final three quarters in a 106-89 win. Miami gave up 33 points in the 1st but tightened up, allowing just 23 in the 2nd, 16 in the 3rd, and 17 in the 4th.
The Heat limited the 76ers to 41% shooting overall, including just 24% from beyond the arc, where Philadelphia made only 10 threes. Miami also sent the 76ers to the line just 12 times, where they hit 9 free throws. The Heat controlled the boards, giving up only 2 offensive rebounds while collecting 44 defensive boards. They also added 10 steals and 2 blocks.
- In their last five games at home, the Heat have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Heat have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
- In their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.
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The Lean
For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Heat to secure the win, with an expected final score of 146-108. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -3.
As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 221.5, and our model projects the Mavericks and Heat to reach a combined total of 254 points. Our bet is on taking the over.
