Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions March 23rd 2025

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets March 23rd 2025

The Houston Rockets (-278) are currently on a nine-game win streak and are favored by 7.5 points against the Nuggets (+228). The over/under line is set at 227.5 points.

This Western Conference matchup will take place at the Toyota Center in Houston. The game will tip-off at 7:00 ET and can be seen on SCHN.

Nuggets vs. Rockets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
• Where: Houston at Toyota Center
• Date: Sunday, March 23rd
• Betting Odds HOU -7.5, DEN +228 | HOU -278 O/U 227.5

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets fell to 44-27 on the season after a 128-109 road loss to the Trail Blazers on Friday. Denver, who entered the game as 2-point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 237 points exceeded the over/under line of 226.5 by 10.5 points.

Portland’s 10-0 run early in the game shifted momentum, and despite Denver taking a 59-54 lead into halftime, the Blazers outscored them 34-23 in the 3rd quarter and 40-27 in the 4th.

In their 128-109 loss to the Trail Blazers, the Nuggets shot 50% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 9 threes at a 34.6% clip. Aaron Gordon led the way with 23 points, scoring 9 in both the 1st and 3rd quarters.

Russell Westbrook added 18 points, including 9 in the 2nd quarter, while Michael Porter Jr. contributed 17 points, 8 of which came in the 4th. Porter also connected on 3 threes, shooting 42.9% from deep.

Defensively, the Nuggets had a strong 2nd quarter, holding the Trail Blazers to 24 points, but they struggled in the 3rd and 4th, allowing 34 and 40 points, respectively, in a 128-109 loss. Denver allowed Portland to shoot 54% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Trail Blazers hit 14 threes at a 40% clip. The Nuggets also sent Portland to the line 25 times, where they made 20 free throws. Denver finished with 10 steals and 2 blocks.

• Although Denver has a straight up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 117 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Denver has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Rockets Can Win If…

Houston improved to 46-25 on the season with a 102-98 road win over Miami on Friday. The Rockets were favored by 4.5 points but didn’t cover the spread, while the total score of 200 points fell short of the 212.5-point over/under line.

After trailing 59-51 at halftime, Houston turned things around in the second half. They outscored the Heat 27-21 in the third quarter and 24-18 in the fourth to secure the win.

Fred VanVleet was on fire from beyond the arc, hitting 9 threes at an 81.8% clip and finishing with 37 points in the Rockets’ win over the Heat. He shot 76.5% from the field overall, with 13 of his points coming in the 4th quarter. The Rockets made 14 threes as a team, shooting 50% from deep and 46.4% overall.

Amen Thompson added 18 points and 9 rebounds, scoring 8 points in the final period. Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith each contributed 11 points, with Brooks scoring 6 in the 1st quarter and Smith adding 6 in the 2nd.

Even with a rough 2nd quarter, the Rockets’ defense tightened up in the 2nd half, giving up just 21 points in the 3rd and 18 in the 4th to secure a win over the Heat. Houston allowed 98 points on 52% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Rockets held Miami to 10 made threes on 41% shooting. They also sent the Heat to the line 14 times, where they made 12 free throws. Houston gave up 5 offensive rebounds while collecting 17 steals and 4 blocks.

• Through their last ten home contests, the Rockets offense has averaged 110 points per game while allowing an average of 114. Houston posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 4-6 ATS.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Rockets have an overall record of 5-0 while going 2-3 against the spread.
• In their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Rockets, with a final score of 134-100, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Rockets at -7.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 227.5, and our model predicts the Nuggets and Rockets to score a combined 234 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Nuggets Look to Right the Ship vs. Red-Hot Rockets

The Houston Rockets will host the Denver Nuggets on Sunday, looking to secure the season series and extend their two-game lead over Denver for the second seed in the Western Conference. The Rockets (46-25) are riding high on a nine-game winning streak, while the Nuggets (44-27) are struggling to find consistency after the All-Star break.

Houston welcomed back standout wing defender Amen Thompson from a six-game injury absence on Friday and received an outstanding offensive showing from veteran guard Fred VanVleet. VanVleet scored 37 points and drained a season-high nine 3-pointers to propel the Rockets to a 102-98 victory over the Miami Heat.

Looking for more insights into how the Rockets’ winning streak impacts their playoff odds? Visit the NBA Western Conference Odds & Predictions.

VanVleet Shines, Thompson Returns Strong

With 18 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and a career-high seven steals, Amen Thompson was equally brilliant in his first game action since suffering an ankle sprain on March 8 against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Noteworthy for Houston was VanVleet enjoying his first breakout effort in the six games since returning from a sprained ankle that forced him to miss 13 of the previous 14 games.

“Guys know it, of course,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “With him being the point guard, he has (the ball) in his hands and we’ll call sets to get him open. He knows, and he’ll call an advantage that he likes.”

The Rockets were quick to capitalize on VanVleet’s hot hand. Udoka praised his team for freeing up their veteran guard and creating opportunities to score.

Looking for more on the Rockets’ playoff aspirations and betting analysis? Check out the NBA Picks and Predictions for expert insights.

Nuggets’ Struggles Continue Without Jokic

The Nuggets have been on a rough patch since the All-Star break, going just 8-8 and losing three of their last four games. On Friday, Denver suffered a 128-109 loss against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Denver played without MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic (ankle) for the third consecutive game, but the issues extended beyond just missing their star player. The Trail Blazers shot 54 percent from the floor and dominated the paint with 64 points, while also turning 15 offensive rebounds into 26 second-chance points.

For more insights into Denver’s recent struggles and playoff outlook, visit the NBA Championship Odds & Predictions.

Malone Calls for More Effort

Nuggets coach Michael Malone did not hold back in his criticism of the team’s lackluster performance. Denver committed 21 turnovers that Portland converted into 25 points. Malone emphasized the importance of playing with pride and having the right mindset, especially with just 11 games remaining in the regular season.

“I don’t know what our guys are thinking with 11 (games) to go,” Malone said. “And I challenge them to look at the standings… If we continue to play the way we’re playing, we will be in the play-in tournament.”

Currently, the Nuggets hold just a one-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies for the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They are also just 3 1/2 games ahead of the seventh-place Los Angeles Clippers.

For a deeper look into how the Nuggets’ performance could affect their playoff positioning, check out the NBA Playoff Odds & Predictions.

Betting Preview and Prediction

The Rockets are hot, and the Nuggets are struggling to find their footing without Jokic. Betting on the Rockets to continue their streak seems promising, but keep an eye on injury reports before placing your wager. To get the most accurate predictions and odds for this game, visit NBA Scores and Odds.

Whether you’re betting on the surging Rockets or expecting a bounce-back game from the Nuggets, stay updated with the latest betting tips and insights on the NBA Expert Betting Guide.