Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions December 29th 2024

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat December 29th 2024

At 7:00 ET, the Miami Heat (+263) will travel to face the Houston Rockets (-328) in a non-conference matchup. The Rockets (-8) are 21-10 and 3rd in the Western Conference, while the Heat are 15-14 and 7th in the East.

This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston and can be seen on SCHN. The over/under line for the game is 216.5 points.

Heat vs. Rockets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at Houston Rockets
• Where: Houston at Toyota Center
• Date: Sunday, December 29th
• Betting Odds HOU -8, MIA +263 | HOU -328 O/U 216.5

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat fell to 15-14 on the season following a 120-110 road loss to the Hawks on Saturday. Miami entered the game as +1 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 230 points narrowly exceeded the O/U line of 227.5.

Miami trailed 35-28 after the 1st quarter but outscored Atlanta 30-26 in the 2nd. However, the Hawks took control in the 3rd, winning the quarter 32-26. The Heat entered the 4th down 93-84 and couldn’t mount a comeback, as Atlanta edged them 27-26 in the final period.

In their 120-110 loss to the Hawks, the Heat shot 44.4% from the field and 31.7% from beyond the arc, hitting 13 threes. Tyler Herro led the way with 28 points, 10 assists, and 7 rebounds, connecting on 4 threes at a 57.1% rate.

Duncan Robinson also made 4 threes, finishing with 16 points, 11 of which came in the 2nd quarter. Herro added 11 points in the 3rd, while Bam Adebayo contributed 6 of his 17 points in the 4th.

Defensively, the Heat gave up 120 points to the Hawks on Saturday, allowing 35 points in the 1st quarter and 32 in the 3rd. They tightened up in the 2nd and 4th, giving up 26 and 27 points, respectively.

Overall, the Heat allowed the Hawks to shoot 51% from the field, including 40% from three-point range, where Atlanta hit 15 threes. The Hawks also went 17/22 from the free-throw line. Miami finished with 34 defensive rebounds, allowing 9 offensive boards, and recorded 9 steals and 4 blocks.

• Across their five previous road games, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 105 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Rockets Can Win If…

The Rockets fell to 21-10 on the season after a 113-112 home loss to the Timberwolves on Friday. Houston, favored by 1 point, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points of 225.5 exceeded the pre-game line of 215.5 by 9.5 points.

Houston appeared to be in control after a strong 3rd quarter, where they outscored Minnesota 32-19 and extended their lead with a 10-0 run. However, the Timberwolves stormed back in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Rockets 37-28 to complete the comeback.

Alperen Şengün was dominant in the Rockets’ 113-112 loss to the Timberwolves, finishing with 38 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 64% from the field. Amen Thompson added 20 points and 11 boards, hitting 75% of his shots.

Fred VanVleet contributed 18 points, knocking down 5 threes at a 50% clip, though he shot just 37.5% overall. The Rockets hit 10 threes at 33.3%, and as a team, they shot 48.9% from the field.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 1st and 3rd quarters, the Rockets couldn’t hold off the Timberwolves, giving up 37 points in the 4th and 113 overall in a 113-112 loss. Houston allowed Minnesota to shoot 50% from the field.

The Rockets struggled to defend the three-point line, where the Timberwolves hit 21 threes at a 48% clip. Houston sent Minnesota to the free-throw line 16 times, where they made 8 attempts. The Rockets finished with 7 steals and 3 blocks.

• When looking at their past five home matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• As the betting favorite, the Rockets have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 4-1.
• In their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Rockets winning this one by a score of 134-119, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Rockets at -8.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 216.5, and our model predicts the Heat and Rockets to score a combined 253 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Rockets Face the Heat: Two Teams Looking for Momentum

The Houston Rockets are back at it Sunday night, hosting the Miami Heat in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rockets are looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking 113-112 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, while the Heat hope to get their groove back as they continue to play without Jimmy Butler.

Houston Rockets: Playing the Hot Hand

Houston has been all about sharing the wealth on offense this season, with Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Fred VanVleet each stepping up when it counts. On Friday night, Sengun was the man, dropping a season-high 38 points while shooting a scorching 64% from the field.

But when it came to crunch time, a miscue on the final play cost Houston a chance at its fifth straight win. Even so, head coach Ime Udoka isn’t worried—he’s sticking with the strategy of letting the hot hand dictate late-game decisions.

Houston’s balance is what makes them dangerous. Green (19.3 PPG), Sengun (19.1 PPG), and VanVleet (15.3 PPG) all contribute consistently, giving the Rockets plenty of ways to attack.

Miami Heat: Missing Jimmy Butle

The Heat have been grinding through a tough stretch without Jimmy Butler, who’s missed four straight games due to reconditioning after an ankle injury. Without him, Miami’s offense has leaned heavily on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.

Herro has been on fire, averaging 23.9 points per game this season. He dropped 28 points and 10 assists in Saturday’s 120-110 loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Adebayo chipped in with 17 points and 10 rebounds, but it wasn’t enough to erase a third-quarter deficit.

Despite the struggles, head coach Erik Spoelstra sees positives.
“The effort and intention were there,” Spoelstra said. “We just couldn’t finish late in the game. That’s something we’ll keep working on.”

What to Watch

1. Rockets’ Offensive Balance
   Houston’s ability to spread the ball and find the hot hand is a big advantage. Whether it’s Green attacking the rim or Sengun dominating in the post, Miami’s defense will have its hands full.
2. Heat Without Butler
   With Butler out, Miami needs Herro and Adebayo to deliver in a big way. If they can’t close the gap late in the game, it could be a long night.
3. Late-Game Execution
   Both teams struggled in crunch time in their last games. Whichever team makes smarter decisions when it matters most will likely come out on top.

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What’s at Stake

• For Houston:
  A win would help them bounce back after a tough loss and show they can close out games when it counts.
• For Miami:
  A victory without Butler would be a confidence boost for Herro, Adebayo, and the rest of the squad as they navigate his absence.

Final Thoughts

The Rockets’ home-court advantage and offensive depth make them slight favorites in this matchup, especially if Sengun stays hot. Miami, though, has the firepower to keep things close with Herro and Adebayo leading the charge.

Both teams are hungry for a win, so expect an exciting battle down the stretch.