Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks February 25th 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Houston Rockets (-175) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (+147) in a non-conference matchup. The Rockets are favored by 4 points and the over/under line is set at 226.5.

This game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston and can be seen on SCHN.

Bucks vs. Rockets Key Information

Sport: NBA
Teams: Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets
Where: Houston at Toyota Center
Date: Tuesday, February 25th
Betting Odds HOU -4, MIL +147 | HOU -175 O/U 226.5

The Bucks Can Win If…

The Bucks improved to 32-24 with a 120-113 win over the Heat on Sunday. Milwaukee, favored by 4.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 233 points went over the 221-point line.

After trailing 37-23 in the 1st quarter, the Bucks chipped away at the lead, outscoring Miami 32-28 in the 2nd and 30-28 in the 3rd. They took control in the 4th, holding the Heat to 20 points while scoring 35, including a decisive 12-0 run.

Damian Lillard led the Bucks with 28 points and 8 assists in their 120-113 win over the Heat, hitting 5 threes at a 41.7% clip. Giannis Antetokounmpo added 23 points and 16 rebounds, shooting 61.1% from the field, while Brook Lopez contributed 17 points.

Milwaukee shot 51.2% overall, connecting on 14 threes at 35.9%. Lillard scored 11 points in the 2nd quarter, and 8 more in the 3rd, while Giannis added 9 points in the opening period and another 8 in the 3rd.

Despite giving up 37 points in the 1st quarter, the Bucks tightened up defensively, allowing just 28 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and only 20 in the 4th to secure the win. Overall, Milwaukee gave up 113 points on 46% shooting from the field.

The Bucks did an excellent job defending the three, holding the Heat to just 9 made threes on 29% shooting. Milwaukee also finished with 32 defensive rebounds, allowing 10 offensive boards, while recording 4 steals and 3 blocks.

Through their last ten road games, Milwaukee has an ATS record of just 2-8. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 110 points per game.
Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight up record of 4-6. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.
Over their last five games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Rockets Can Win If…

The Rockets fell to 35-22 on the season after a 124-115 road loss to the Jazz on Saturday. Houston, who were -7.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 239 exceeded the over/under line of 227 by 12 points.

Houston led 90-87 going into the 4th quarter after outscoring Utah 34-27 in the 2nd quarter, but they were outscored 37-25 in the final period, leading to the loss.

Alperen Sengün led the Rockets with 27 points and 12 rebounds in their 124-115 loss to the Jazz, shooting 45.8% from the field. Jalen Green added 25 points and 10 assists, hitting 6 threes at a 50% clip, while Amen Thompson contributed 22 points and 9 rebounds, shooting 60% overall and 66.7% from deep.

Houston connected on 17 threes, shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc and 44% overall. Sengün scored 12 points in the 2nd quarter, while Jeff Green added 11 of his 16 points in the 3rd.

Defensively, the Rockets couldn’t contain the Jazz, giving up 124 points on 50% shooting. They allowed 29 points in the 1st quarter and 27 in the 2nd, but their worst stretch came in the 4th, where they gave up 37 points.

Houston did a good job defending the three, holding Utah to 32% shooting and 13 made threes. The Jazz also went 13/27 from the free-throw line. The Rockets finished with 33 defensive rebounds, but they allowed 16 offensive boards.

Although Houston has a straight up record of 0-5 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 109 points per game in these games.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Rockets have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.
In their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Lean

In this Bucks vs. Rockets matchup, our point-spread bet is on the Bucks at +4. While we project the Rockets to win 131-129, our recommendation is to bet on the Bucks for the point-spread.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 226.5, and our model projects the Bucks and Rockets to reach a combined total of 260 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Houston Searching for Stability as VanVleet Nears Return

The Houston Rockets (25-32) have been in a downward spiral this month, largely due to the absence of veteran point guard Fred VanVleet.

Since VanVleet injured his right ankle on Feb. 1, the Rockets have lost seven of ten games, struggling with ball security and offensive consistency.

“Fred is crucial to our whole ecosystem,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “His IQ and playmaking ability set everything up for us.”

VanVleet practiced on Monday and remains a game-time decision for Tuesday’s home matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks (39-21).

If he returns to the lineup, Houston could get a much-needed boost in its attempt to snap Milwaukee’s four-game winning streak.

Turnover Woes Without VanVleet

With VanVleet sidelined, Houston has struggled to organize its offense, rotating between:

Jalen Green – Explosive scorer but turnover-prone.
Amen Thompson – Athletic but still learning NBA pace.
Alperen Sengun – Elite passer but committed a career-high eight turnovers against Minnesota.

VanVleet’s leadership and floor vision have been sorely missed, particularly by Sengun, who has built strong chemistry with him over the past two seasons.

Against a Milwaukee team with a deep, athletic defense, the Rockets will need a steady hand to limit mistakes and create quality shots.

Bucks Finding Their Groove After Trade Deadline Moves

The Bucks have been dominant since the All-Star break, largely thanks to key trade deadline acquisitions.

Milwaukee’s Key Additions:

Kyle Kuzma (18.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) – Adds scoring depth.
Kevin Porter Jr. (16.1 PPG, 5.2 APG) – Provides playmaking and defense.
Jericho Sims (5.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG) – Solid interior presence.

With Bobby Portis Jr. still serving his 25-game suspension, the Kuzma-Porter duo has helped keep Milwaukee’s second unit strong.

Even when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard rest, Milwaukee now has enough firepower to maintain its level of play.

This new rotation was on full display in Monday’s 120-113 win over Miami, where the Bucks overcame a double-digit deficit to secure their fourth straight victory.

What’s at Stake?

For the Rockets:

Can they limit turnovers without VanVleet?
Can they slow down Milwaukee’s deep rotation?
Can Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun carry the offense?

For the Bucks:

Can they extend their winning streak to five games?
Will Kuzma and Porter continue to provide strong bench play?
Can they take advantage of Houston’s struggling backcourt?

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Prediction: Can Houston Compete Without VanVleet?

If VanVleet plays, Houston will have a much better chance at controlling the tempo and limiting turnovers.

However, if he remains out, the Bucks’ depth, defense, and offensive firepower could prove too much for the young and inconsistent Rockets.

Milwaukee is on a roll, and unless Houston delivers a near-perfect performance, expect the Bucks to pull away late.

Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions February 25th 2025