Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions October 24th 2024

Mavericks vs Spurs October 24th 2024

At 7:30 ET, the San Antonio Spurs (+247) will take on the Dallas Mavericks (-302) in a Western Southwest division matchup. The over/under line for the game is set at 229.5.

Last year, the Spurs finished 14th in the Western Conference with a record of 22-60. The Mavs, on the other hand, were 5th in the West with a record of 50-32.

Spurs vs. Mavericks Key Information

Ranked 29th in our preseason power rankings, the Spurs have just a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs. Last season, they finished 22-60, placing 14th in the Western Conference. They went 14-37 in conference play and 3-13 against division opponents, finishing 5th in the Southwest Division.

Against the spread, San Antonio matched its win total with a 22-60 record. They were 7-2 when favored but struggled as the underdog, going 15-58. At home, they posted a -4.1 points per game scoring margin, going 12-29 straight-up and ATS. On the road, they were 10-31 straight-up and ATS, with an average margin of -8.8 points per game. Their over/under record was 41-40-1, with their games averaging 230.7 points per game.

The Spurs finished last season ranked 29th in our offensive power rankings, scoring 112.1 points per game (23rd). They played at a fast pace, averaging 101.3 possessions per game (2nd), and took 90.7 field goal attempts per game (7th), but they struggled with efficiency, shooting 46.2% from the field (25th) and 34.7% from three (27th). They made 12.6 threes per game (16th) on 36.4 attempts (11th) and attempted 20.0 free throws per game (28th), making 78.2% (14th). They also averaged 10.4 offensive rebounds per game (18th).

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Victor Wembanyama, who averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring, ranking 17th in the league. Devin Vassell, who averaged 19.5 points and 4.1 assists, is projected to lead the team in made threes. Harrison Barnes, a key addition from the Kings, is projected to be 4th on the team in scoring and 3rd in made threes.

San Antonio comes into this season ranked 24th in our defensive power rankings after allowing 118.6 points per game last year, placing them 24th in the NBA. Opponents shot 48.8% from the field against them, ranking 22nd in field-goal percentage allowed, and they gave up 37.1% shooting from beyond the arc.

Despite their struggles, the Spurs ranked 3rd in blocked shots and 8th in defensive rebounding. Victor Wembanyama is projected to be one of the league’s top shot-blockers and rebounders, while Devin Vassell, one of their better rebounding guards, is currently out.

Dallas enters the season ranked 1st in our power rankings, with a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 72.9% chance of winning the Southwest Division. Last season, the Mavericks finished 50-32, placing 5th in the Western Conference. They went 11-5 in division play, finishing 1st in the Southwest.

At home, the Mavericks had a +3.6 scoring margin, going 25-16, and they posted the same record on the road, with a +0.8 margin. They were 45-37 against the spread and 38-13 straight-up when favored. As the underdog, they went 12-19.

Dallas enters the season ranked 2nd in our offensive power rankings after finishing 7th in points per game (117.9) last season. They were 8th in possessions per game (99.6) and 12th in field goal attempts per game (89.7), shooting 48.1% (11th). The Mavericks ranked 2nd in three-point attempts per game (39.5), making 14.6 per game (3rd) at a 36.9% clip (13th). They were 11th in free throw attempts per game (22.5) but struggled at the line, ranking 27th in free throw percentage (75.8%).

Returning for Dallas are Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic is projected to finish 2nd in points per game among point guards, while Irving is projected to rank 9th. The Mavericks added Klay Thompson, who is projected to lead the team in three-pointers made and rank 2nd in the league.

Despite allowing 115.6 points per game last season, ranking 19th in the NBA, the Mavericks are 7th in our defensive power rankings heading into this year. They allowed opponents to shoot 47.6% from the field, placing them 20th, and 36.7% from beyond the arc, ranking 17th. Luka Doncic contributes significantly to their rebounding efforts, and Daniel Gafford is among the league’s top shot-blockers. Dallas ranked 14th in defensive rebounding and 17th in blocked shots last season.

Coming in as the underdogs at +7.5, we have the Spurs as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 229.5 and our model has the Spurs and Mavericks finishing with a combined 309 points. Our pick is to take the over.

Mavs, Spurs on Different Paths Entering Season Opener

It’s “go time” for the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs as the two Texas rivals tip off their 2024-25 NBA season on Thursday in Dallas. However, both teams enter the season with vastly different expectations.

Mavericks Eye Championship Run

The Dallas Mavericks, coming off a 50-32 season and a Western Conference title, are in championship contention once again. They enter the new campaign aiming for the top spot in the West, bolstered by a formidable roster led by superstar guards Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Dallas swept all four meetings with San Antonio last season, and their goal remains clear: win an NBA title. This offseason, the Mavericks addressed a key weakness—three-point shooting—by signing one of the league’s greatest shooters, Klay Thompson.

Coach Jason Kidd has kept his cards close to the vest regarding the rest of the starting lineup. The center position remains undecided, with Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II vying for the spot, while P.J. Washington is expected to start at power forward.

Key reserves for Dallas include guards Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Jaden Hardy, along with forwards Naji Marshall, Maxi Kleber, and center Dwight Powell. However, the Mavs will be without guard Dante Exum for the first three months after wrist surgery.

While Doncic missed the preseason due to a calf injury, he has returned to full practice and is set to play in the opener. This will be the first time that Doncic, Irving, and Thompson share the court together, but Doncic is confident that chemistry will come with time.

“There’s not much to adjust to (for me),” Doncic said. “If Klay’s open, he’s going to knock it down. It’s Klay Thompson, one of the greatest shooters ever. His motivation is always high. He’s a competitor. He wants to win. Like every other season, he wants to win a championship. It’s gonna be fun out there.”

Spurs in Rebuild Mode

On the opposite end of the spectrum are the San Antonio Spurs, who finished 22-60 last season, missing the playoffs for the fifth straight year. Despite boasting a rising star in Victor Wembanyama, the team remains in rebuild mode and is focused on returning to respectability.

Wembanyama, who won Rookie of the Year honors last season, was a bright spot in a tough season for San Antonio. The 7-foot-4 center averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while leading the NBA with 3.6 blocks per game.

“The more I grow into my career, the more I realize it’s important to work on the fundamentals,” Wembanyama said. “There’s a big emphasis that’s been put on my game this summer, which is taking advantage of really simple situations.”

In the offseason, the Spurs added veteran point guard Chris Paul and forward Harrison Barnes to provide leadership and experience. Wembanyama will be joined in the starting lineup by forwards Julian Champagnie and Jeremy Sochan. The team is missing sharpshooter Devin Vassell, who is recovering from a stress fracture in his foot and is expected back in November.

San Antonio’s bench will be led by Keldon Johnson, with guards Tre Jones, Malaki Branham, and Blake Wesley alongside forwards Zach Collins, Sandro Mamukelashvili, and center Charles Bassey.

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Coach Gregg Popovich, entering his 29th season with the Spurs, continues to guide the team through its rebuild. Popovich is the NBA’s all-time winningest coach, with 1,388 victories to his name.

Season Opener Stakes

While the Mavericks have championship aspirations, the Spurs are aiming to build a foundation for future success. Dallas will look to start strong, especially with its new trio of Doncic, Irving, and Thompson, while San Antonio is hoping to see continued development from Wembanyama and a strong showing from their offseason acquisitions.

As the two teams take the floor, the contrast between their expectations is clear. For the Mavericks, it’s about maintaining their status as contenders. For the Spurs, it’s about continuing to grow and take steps toward a brighter future.