Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions March 15th 2025

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat March 15th 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Memphis Grizzlies (-301) will host the Miami Heat (+247) in a non-conference matchup. Memphis is favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 228.

The Heat (29-37) are currently on a six-game losing streak and sit 9th in the Eastern Conference. The Grizzlies (42-25) are 4th in the West and 2nd in the Southwest Division.

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Heat vs. Grizzlies Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies
• Where: Memphis at FedExForum
• Date: Saturday, March 15th
• Betting Odds MEM -7.5, MIA +247 | MEM -301 O/U 228

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat dropped to 29-37 on the season after a 103-91 home loss to the Celtics on Friday. Miami entered the game as +7.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 194 points fell short of the 212-point over/under line.

After taking a 50-47 lead into halftime, Miami was outscored 28-27 in the 3rd quarter. The Celtics then went on a 10-0 run in the 4th, pushing the score from 81-79 to 89-81, and outscored the Heat 25-14 in the final period.

In their 103-91 loss to the Celtics, the Heat’s offense was led by Andrew Wiggins, who scored 23 points, with 10 of those coming in the second quarter. Tyler Herro added 19 points, contributing 7 in the second quarter as well. Jaime Jaquez chipped in 13 points, with 9 of those coming in the third quarter.

Miami hit 13 threes at a 38.2% clip, with Wiggins and Herro each knocking down 3. Overall, the Heat shot 45.3% from the field.

Despite a strong defensive effort, the Heat couldn’t overcome the Celtics, allowing 103 points in the loss. Miami gave up 30 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up in the 2nd, holding Boston to just 20 points. The Celtics scored 28 in the 3rd and 25 in the 4th. Overall, the Heat held Boston to 43% shooting.

Miami struggled to contain the Celtics from beyond the arc, where Boston hit 19 threes at a 38% clip. The Heat sent the Celtics to the line 13 times, where they made 12 free throws. Miami finished with 31 defensive rebounds, allowing 9 offensive boards, while also recording 10 steals and 4 blocks.

• Through their last three road games, Miami has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 0-3 while averaging 102 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 5-4-1 in their last ten games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
• Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

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The Grizzlies Can Win If…

Memphis dropped to 42-25 on the season after a 133-124 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday. The Grizzlies entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 257, surpassing the O/U line of 243.5 by 13.5 points.

Memphis fell behind early, losing the first two quarters 36-29 and 39-29. They trailed 112-92 going into the 4th but made a push with a 10-0 run, cutting the score to 112-99 before eventually outscoring Cleveland 32-21 in the final quarter.

Ja Morant was sensational in the Grizzlies’ 133-124 loss to the Cavaliers, finishing with 44 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists while shooting 77.3% from the field. Morant scored 14 points in the 1st quarter and added 12 more in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke each contributed 13 points, with Clarke scoring 11 of his points in the 3rd quarter. The Grizzlies shot 49.5% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, making just 11 threes at a 30.6% clip.

The Grizzlies struggled defensively against the Cavaliers, giving up 133 points on 50% shooting. Memphis allowed 36 points in the 1st quarter, 39 in the 2nd, and 37 in the 3rd, before tightening up in the 4th, where they gave up 21 points.

From beyond the arc, the Grizzlies allowed Cleveland to hit 19 threes at a 37% clip. The Cavaliers also went 26/33 from the free-throw line. Memphis finished with 35 defensive rebounds, 11 steals, and 3 blocks.

• In their last five games at home, the Grizzlies have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 1-3-1 vs the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
• Against the spread, the Grizzlies have put together 0-3 in their last three games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-0 straight up.
• In their last three games, the Grizzlies have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Grizzlies to secure the win, with an expected final score of 166-126. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -7.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 228, and our model predicts the Heat and Grizzlies to score a combined 292 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Grizzlies Bid to Bounce Back vs. Skidding Heat

The Memphis Grizzlies (42-25) will look to regroup quickly on Saturday night when they host the Miami Heat (29-37), who are mired in a six-game losing streak.

Grizzlies Stumble Against Red-Hot Cavaliers

Memphis had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 133-124 loss to Cleveland, which extended its own winning streak to 16 games.

Despite the loss, Ja Morant shined, scoring a season-high 44 points and extending his streak of 20+ point games to 10 straight.

Jaren Jackson Jr. returned from injury after missing four games with an ankle sprain, contributing 13 points, four steals, and two blocks.

However, Memphis allowed 75 first-half points, including 13 three-pointers, digging itself a hole it couldn’t escape.

“We could have been a lot better defensively,” Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins said. “We dug ourselves a huge hole. We were playing catch-up all night.”

Heat Struggling in Fourth Quarters

The Heat’s offensive woes continued Friday in a 103-91 loss to the Boston Celtics, marking six straight defeats for Miami.

Despite trailing by just one point entering the fourth quarter, Miami managed only 14 points in the final period, allowing Boston to pull away.

“We played and competed hard, but against Boston, it’s going to be a double-digit loss,” said Heat coach Erik Spoelstra.

Miami has been outscored by 126 points in the fourth quarter since February—the worst mark in the NBA during that stretch.

Andrew Wiggins (23 points) and Tyler Herro (19 points, six assists) led the Heat offensively, but Miami failed to capitalize on a solid defensive effort.

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Miami’s Lineup Shakeup

Spoelstra made adjustments to the starting lineup, inserting Duncan Robinson and Jaime Jaquez Jr. for Davion Mitchell and Kel’el Ware.

Robinson, who had scored in double figures in nine straight games off the bench, struggled with just six points in 26 minutes.

“The new starting five was pretty fluid all the way through,” Spoelstra said.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Ja Morant vs. Miami’s Defense – Morant is averaging 32.8 points over his last five games and could cause major problems for Miami’s shaky fourth-quarter defense.
• Bam Adebayo vs. Jaren Jackson Jr. – With Jackson back in the lineup, Adebayo will have his hands full in the paint.
• Memphis’ Three-Point Defense – The Grizzlies must limit perimeter shots after allowing Cleveland to hit 13 first-half threes.