Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets Picks and Predictions March 10th 2025

Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets March 10th 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat (-437) will host the Charlotte Hornets (+335) in an Eastern Southeast division matchup. The Heat are favored by 9.5 points and are currently 9th in the Eastern Conference. Miami has lost three straight games and has a record of 29-34.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on FDSS. The over/under line for the game is 216.5 points. Charlotte is 14th in the East with a record of 15-48 and is 4th in the Southeast Division.

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Hornets vs. Heat Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat
• Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
• Date: Monday, March 10th
• Betting Odds MIA -9.5, CHA +335 | MIA -437 O/U 216.5

The Hornets Can Win If…

The Hornets improved to 15-48 on the season with a 105-102 home win over the Nets on Saturday. Charlotte, who entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs, not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread. The total points for the game were 207, falling short of the 211.5 O/U line.

After the Nets went on an 11-0 run to take the lead, Charlotte found themselves trailing 58-43. However, they responded by outscoring Brooklyn 33-24 in the 3rd quarter and 29-20 in the 4th to complete the comeback.

In their win over the Nets, the Hornets shot 40.8% from the field and made 11 threes at a 32.4% clip. Miles Bridges led the way with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists, while Nick Smith added 19 points, hitting 3 threes.

Moussa Diabaté contributed 16 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 66.7% from the floor. Bridges scored 9 points in the 1st quarter and 8 in the 4th, while Smith put up 12 of his 19 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Hornets gave up 102 points to the Nets but tightened up in the 4th quarter, allowing just 20 points to secure the win. They sent Brooklyn to the line 15 times, where the Nets made 12 free throws.

From deep, the Hornets held the Nets to 14 threes on 28% shooting. Charlotte also recorded 28 defensive rebounds, gave up 8 offensive boards, and finished with 4 steals and 2 blocks.

• In their last five games away from home, the Hornets have a straight up record of 0-5 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 95 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Hornets have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
• Over their last three games, the Hornets have an over/under record of 1-1-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

Miami’s season record dropped to 29-34 after a 114-109 loss to the Bulls on Saturday. The Heat were favored by 5.5 points at home but failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 223 narrowly missed the over/under line of 225.5.

Miami jumped out to a strong start, going on a 10-0 run early and leading 36-24 after the 1st quarter. However, Chicago chipped away at the lead, and despite Miami winning the 3rd quarter 34-30, the Heat were outscored 36-20 in the 4th quarter, squandering an 89-78 lead heading into the final period.

Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins each scored 22 points in the Heat’s 109-114 loss to the Bulls, with Wiggins hitting 3 threes at a 60% clip. Tyler Herro added 21 points, contributing 11 in the 3rd quarter.

Miami shot 42.3% from the field and 30.2% from three, making 13 threes overall. Adebayo scored 10 points in the 1st quarter, while Wiggins added 9 in the opening period and 7 more in the 4th.

The Heat defense held the Bulls to 24 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters but struggled in the 4th, allowing 36 points, leading to a 114-109 loss. Overall, Miami gave up 114 points on 45% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Heat limited the Bulls to 11 made threes on 26% shooting. Miami also gave up 26 free throw attempts, with Chicago converting 23. The Heat finished with 37 defensive rebounds, 7 steals, and 5 blocks.

• Through their last three home contests, the Heat offense has averaged 102 points per game while allowing an average of 110. Miami posted an overall record of 0-3 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Heat have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.
• In their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 0-3 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Heat winning this one by a score of 131-117, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Heat at -9.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 216.5, and our model predicts the Hornets and Heat to score a combined 248 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Injury-Plagued Hornets Look for Elusive Win vs. Heat

The Miami Heat must be thrilled to host the Charlotte Hornets on Monday night, as Charlotte has lost nine of its past 10 games. Adding to Miami’s confidence, the Heat have won six straight matchups against the Hornets, with Charlotte’s last victory in the series coming on Feb. 25, 2023.

Hornets Struggling Amid Injuries

Charlotte’s season has been derailed by injuries, with Brandon Miller (wrist), Grant Williams (knee), and Tre Mann (back) all out for the season. LaMelo Ball (ankle), Mark Williams (foot), and Jusuf Nurkic (back) are listed as day-to-day, while Josh Okogie (hamstring) remains sidelined.

At full strength, Charlotte’s roster looked promising, with Miller and Ball starting, while Grant Williams and Mann provided key minutes off the bench. In addition, Williams (9.9 RPG) and Nurkic (8.5 RPG) are the team’s top rebounders, making their absences even more impactful.

Despite the setbacks, Miles Bridges has been a bright spot for the Hornets, averaging 20.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Bridges led Charlotte with 26 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists in Saturday’s 105-102 victory over the Brooklyn Nets, which snapped the team’s nine-game losing streak.

Heat Looking to Break Losing Streak

Miami, meanwhile, enters the matchup on a three-game skid, with all three losses coming by five points or fewer. On Saturday, the Heat squandered a late lead and fell 114-109 to the Chicago Bulls after being outscored 36-20 in the fourth quarter.

The Heat did receive a boost with the return of two key starters—Andrew Wiggins and Kel’el Ware. Wiggins scored a team-high 22 points in 28 minutes, while Ware added seven points, 12 rebounds, two blocks, and two steals in 27 minutes.

“There was a loose minute restriction that I stretched with the two of them,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said regarding Wiggins and Ware’s playing time.

Despite their recent struggles, the Heat remain focused on bouncing back.

“We’re in this together,” Spoelstra said. “This is an opportunity for us to face our demons. This is not something that is comfortable for any of us, but I see something amazing on the other side if we can collectively overcome this.”

With Charlotte battling injuries and Miami looking to regain its footing, Monday’s contest could prove pivotal for both teams.

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