Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers January 2nd 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat (-121) will host the Indiana Pacers (+101) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The Heat are currently 6th in the East, while the Pacers are 8th. Miami is favored by 1.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 224.5. This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on FDSS.

Pacers vs. Heat Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
• Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
• Date: Thursday, January 2nd
• Betting Odds MIA -1.5, IND +101 | MIA -121 O/U 224.5

The Pacers Can Win If…

The Pacers dropped to 16-18 on the season after a 120-112 home loss to the Bucks on Tuesday. Indiana, who entered the game as +2 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 232 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 230.

After taking control with a 36-23 2nd quarter, the Pacers led 91-88 going into the 4th. However, the Bucks went on a decisive 12-0 run, stretching the score from 83-66 to 95-66, and outscored Indiana 32-21 in the final period.

Bennedict Mathurin led the Pacers with 25 points and 9 rebounds, hitting 3 threes at a 60% rate in their 120-112 loss to the Bucks. Pascal Siakam added 20 points, with 9 coming in the 2nd quarter, and Myles Turner contributed 16 points and 10 boards.

Mathurin scored 10 points in the 4th quarter, while Jarace Walker added 8 of his 11 points in the 2nd. The Pacers shot 44.4% from the field and made 13 threes at a 35.1% clip.

Despite holding the Bucks to just 23 points in the 2nd quarter, the Pacers’ defense struggled in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 35 and 32 points, respectively, in a 120-112 loss. Indiana allowed Milwaukee to shoot 46% from the field.

The Pacers limited the Bucks to 12 made threes on 36% shooting from deep. Milwaukee also went 18/24 from the free-throw line. Defensively, Indiana recorded 8 steals and 7 blocks.

• The Pacers are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Pacers have a straight up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.
• Over their last three games, the Pacers have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat improved to 17-14 with a 119-108 win over the Pelicans on Wednesday. Miami, favored by 9 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 227 points went over the 220.5-point line.

Miami jumped out to a 36-24 lead after the 1st quarter, but the Pelicans responded with an 11-0 run, extending their lead from 50-41 to 61-41. The Heat regained control by outscoring New Orleans 34-25 in the 3rd quarter and held on in the 4th, despite being outscored 32-29.

Tyler Herro’s 32 points and 5 threes led the Heat to a win over the Pelicans, as he shot 50% from the field and 41.7% from beyond the arc. Bam Adebayo contributed 23 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds, shooting 64.3%, while Duncan Robinson added 17 points and 3 threes, hitting 42.9% from deep.

Miami connected on 14 threes at a 41.2% rate and shot 53% overall. Herro scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, and Adebayo matched that with 12 in the 4th.

Even with a tough 4th quarter, the Heat’s defense held the Pelicans to 108 points on Wednesday. They allowed 24 points in the 1st, 27 in the 2nd, and 25 in the 3rd before giving up 32 in the final quarter. Miami’s defense gave up 50% shooting from the field.

The Heat did well defending the three, holding New Orleans to 9 made threes on 26% shooting. They also limited the Pelicans to 5 offensive rebounds, finishing with 33 defensive boards. Miami added 6 steals and 1 block in the game.

• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Miami has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 101 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Heat have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 4-1.
• In their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re putting our money on the Heat to win, and have the projected score sitting at 138-125. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Heat at -1.5.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 224.5 and given that our model is projecting 263 points between the teams, we like the over.

Pacers Look to Bounce Back Against Heat’s Tough Zone Defense

The Indiana Pacers are heading to Miami on Thursday night, ready to face a Miami Heat team that knows how to make life tough for their opponents. After a frustrating collapse against Milwaukee, the Pacers know they’ll need to be sharp to handle Miami’s zone defense—the best in the league.

Indiana Pacers: Fixing What Went Wrong

The Pacers let a 19-point third-quarter lead slip away against the Bucks on Tuesday, falling 120-112. The key issue? Struggling against Milwaukee’s sustained zone defense.

Miami Heat: Clicking on Both Ends of the Floor

The Heat are coming off a 119-108 win over the Pelicans on Wednesday, a game where everything seemed to fall into place. With strong defense and unselfish offense, Miami showed why they’re one of the most balanced teams in the league when they’re firing on all cylinders.

• Standout Players:
  • Tyler Herro: Scored 32 points and continues to grow into his role as a playmaker and scorer.“He’s putting his stamp on games in so many ways,” said coach Erik Spoelstra.
  • Bam Adebayo: Came close to a triple-double with 23 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds, showcasing his ability to anchor Miami on both ends.
  • Jimmy Butler: Returned to action after missing five games with a stomach illness, contributing 9 points in limited minutes (24).
• Teamwork Makes the Dream Work:
  Miami recorded 34 assists on 44 made shots against New Orleans, with players constantly moving and sharing the ball. Spoelstra highlighted the importance of their selfless play:“When everyone is involved, it makes everything look better. It’s about sharing the ball and doing the little things.”

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What to Watch For

• Can the Pacers Solve the Zone? Indiana has struggled against zone defenses lately. They’ll need better ball movement and more aggression to break through Miami’s schemes.
• Heat’s Balanced Attack: Miami’s offense thrives on teamwork and unselfish play. If the ball keeps moving, it could be tough for the Pacers to keep up.
• Key Matchups: Look for Bennedict Mathurin and Tyler Herro to battle it out as rising stars for their teams, while Bam Adebayo’s all-around game will test Indiana’s defense.

Players to Watch

• Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers): The rookie standout needs another big performance to keep Indiana competitive.
• Tyler Herro (Heat): With 32 points last game, Herro’s confidence is sky-high. Expect him to be Miami’s offensive engine.
• Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo’s two-way play is critical for Miami, and he’ll be a handful for Indiana to deal with.
• Pascal Siakam (Pacers): Siakam’s versatility makes him a key factor in attacking Miami’s zone.

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Why This Game Matters

For the Pacers, this is a chance to bounce back and prove they can adapt after a tough loss. For the Heat, it’s an opportunity to build momentum at home and keep climbing the Eastern Conference standings.

With contrasting styles and standout players on both sides, this matchup promises a mix of strategy, intensity, and high-energy basketball.