Miami Heat vs Phoenix-suns Picks and Predictions December 7th 2024

Miami Heat vs Phoenix-Suns December 7th 2024

At 8:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-218) will host the Phoenix Suns (+183) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat are favored by 6 points, and the over/under line is set at 219.5.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami, and can be seen on AZFa.

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Suns vs. Heat Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat
• Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
• Date: Saturday, December 7th
• Betting Odds MIA -6, PHO +183 | MIA -218 O/U 219.5

The Suns Can Win If…

The Suns fell to 12-9 on the season after a 126-124 road loss to the Pelicans on Thursday. Phoenix, favored by 1.5 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 250, well over the 223.5-point line.

Phoenix went on an 11-0 run, turning a 49-44 deficit into a 55-49 lead. They dominated the 2nd quarter, outscoring New Orleans 32-20, but the Pelicans responded with a 45-28 3rd quarter. The Suns tried to rally in the 4th, outscoring the Pelicans 31-27, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

Devin Booker led the Suns with 28 points in their 126-124 loss to the Pelicans, scoring 15 of those in the 1st quarter. Booker shot just 30% from the field and 3-of-10 from three-point range. Bradley Beal added 24 points, with 9 coming in the 2nd quarter, and Royce O’Neale contributed 19 points, hitting 5 threes at a 62.5% clip.

As a team, the Suns made 17 threes, shooting 37.8% from beyond the arc and 50.6% overall. O’Neale’s 5 made threes were key, while Booker added 3 despite his struggles from deep.

Defensively, the Suns had a strong 2nd quarter, holding the Pelicans to 20 points, but they struggled in the 3rd, giving up 45 points, which contributed to their 126-124 loss. Phoenix allowed New Orleans to shoot 49% from the field.

The Suns gave up 14 three-pointers on 38% shooting. They sent the Pelicans to the line 25 times, where they made 18 free throws. Phoenix finished with 36 defensive rebounds, allowing 12 offensive boards, and recorded 10 steals.

• Through their last five road games, Phoenix has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 109 points per game.
• The last three games that Phoenix was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• Over their last five games, the Suns have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat evened their season record at 10-10 with a dominant 134-93 win over the Lakers on Wednesday. Miami, favored by -3.5 points, easily covered the spread, while the game’s total of 227 points exceeded the O/U line of 217.5.

A 14-0 run early in the game helped Miami break open a 6-6 tie, and they never looked back. They outscored the Lakers 35-26 in the 2nd quarter and 36-20 in the 3rd, entering the 4th with a 105-72 lead before closing out the game by outscoring L.A. 29-21 in the final period.

Tyler Herro’s 31 points and 9 threes powered the Heat to a 134-point performance in their win over the Lakers, as he shot 56.2% from deep. Miami connected on 24 threes, hitting 51.1% from beyond the arc and 57.8% overall from the field.

Herro exploded for 21 points in the 3rd quarter, while Jimmy Butler added 17 points and 9 rebounds, shooting 66.7%. Terry Rozier contributed 16 points, with 7 coming in the final period.

Defensively, the Heat were solid throughout, holding the Lakers to 93 points on Wednesday. They gave up 26 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters but tightened up in the 3rd, allowing just 20 points. In the 4th, they conceded 21 points to seal the win.

Miami limited Los Angeles to 42% shooting, including just 5 made threes on 22% from deep. The Lakers went 14/19 from the line. The Heat grabbed 39 defensive rebounds, gave up 12 offensive boards, and recorded 11 steals and 5 blocks.

• Across the Heat last three home games, the team averaged 101 points per game while allowing 107. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 0-3, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Miami has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
• In their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Heat, with a final score of 145-107, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Heat at -6.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 219.5, and our model predicts the Suns and Heat to score a combined 252 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Daily NBA Picks & Predictions

Devin Booker, Short-Handed Suns Face Tall Task Against Miami Heat

The Phoenix Suns face a tough test as they visit the Miami Heat on Saturday night, dealing with significant absences in their lineup. The Suns are an impressive 8-2 when their star trio—Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal—play together. However, they are just 1-7 without Durant, who will miss this matchup due to a left ankle injury. Here’s a breakdown of the key storylines, player performances, and potential impacts for this highly anticipated game.

Suns Struggle Without Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant’s absence leaves a glaring hole for Phoenix. He leads the team in scoring (25.8 points per game), rebounds (6.7), and is a steadying veteran presence. The Suns have struggled mightily in games without him, emphasizing his pivotal role on both ends of the court. With Durant sidelined for at least a week, the Suns will need to find other ways to compensate for his production.

Adding to their woes, starting center Jusuf Nurkic is also unavailable due to a right thigh contusion. Nurkic’s rebounding (9.9 per game) and physicality in the paint are vital for a Suns team that lacks interior depth. Backup Mason Plumlee, who averages 4.6 points and 5.9 rebounds, will take on a larger role but is unlikely to replicate Nurkic’s impact.

All Eyes on Devin Booker

Devin Booker is no stranger to pressure and will need to elevate his game further to keep the Suns competitive. Averaging 25.1 points and 6.3 assists this season, Booker has proven he can take over games when necessary. Interestingly, the Suns have a stellar 6-1 record when Booker records eight or more assists, showcasing his ability to facilitate while scoring efficiently.

Booker’s game plan often involves playing the entire first quarter, a strategy he says helps him establish rhythm as both a scorer and a playmaker. With Durant out, expect Booker to shoulder even more responsibility, both in creating opportunities for teammates and delivering clutch scoring.

Supporting Cast: Can the Suns Step Up?

The Suns’ supporting cast will play a critical role against Miami. Royce O’Neale, who has stepped into Durant’s starting role, is a solid defender but offers limited scoring (10 points, 6 rebounds per game). Bradley Beal, averaging 18 points, will need to contribute more consistently, while role players like Grayson Allen (10.6 points) and Tyus Jones (7 assists per game) must make the most of their opportunities.

Phoenix won their previous meeting with Miami 115-112 earlier this season, but that was with a fully healthy roster. This time, the Suns will rely heavily on their bench and Booker’s leadership.

Miami Heat: Stars and Depth Shine

The Miami Heat, meanwhile, have their own stars ready to shine. Tyler Herro has been phenomenal this season, leading the team with 24.1 points per game while shooting a career-high 42% from beyond the arc. He scored 28 points in their earlier meeting against Phoenix, making him a key focus for the Suns’ defense.

Bam Adebayo, though experiencing a dip in scoring (15.6 points per game), remains essential to Miami’s success. He leads the team in rebounds (9.9) and assists (5), showcasing his versatility as a big man.

Jimmy Butler, Miami’s veteran leader, has been the subject of speculation regarding a possible decline at age 35. Despite lower scoring numbers (18.7 points per game), Butler remains efficient, leading the team in free-throw attempts (7.6 per game) and boasting the highest offensive rating (136) on the roster.

Role Players Make the Difference

Both teams will rely heavily on their role players to make an impact. For Miami, Duncan Robinson (10.2 points per game) and Kevin Love add scoring and spacing, while Haywood Highsmith and Jaime Jaquez Jr. bring defensive versatility. Miami’s deep rotation—nine players have started at least one game this season—provides flexibility for coach Erik Spoelstra to adapt to any matchup.

Conversely, Phoenix’s bench lacks the same firepower, making their top-heavy reliance on stars like Booker and Beal even more pronounced. For the Suns to succeed, players like Plumlee, O’Neale, and Grayson Allen will need to exceed expectations.

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Key Matchup: Booker vs. Herro

The clash between Devin Booker and Tyler Herro is poised to be the highlight of this game. Booker’s ability to control the tempo and lead his team offensively will be tested by Herro’s sharpshooting and improved playmaking. Whichever player imposes their will on the game is likely to swing the outcome for their team.

Prediction and Final Thoughts

With Durant and Nurkic out, the Suns are at a clear disadvantage, especially on the defensive end. Miami’s combination of depth, shooting, and versatility makes them the favorites, particularly at home. However, if Booker can deliver a superstar performance and Phoenix’s role players step up, the Suns could pull off an upset.

Key Stats to Watch:

• Devin Booker’s Assists: Suns are 6-1 when he records eight or more assists.
• Tyler Herro’s 3-Point Shooting: Shooting a career-high 42% from beyond the arc.
• Miami’s Offensive Rating: Jimmy Butler leads at 136, highlighting his efficiency.

Conclusion

This game is a tale of two teams: one relying heavily on a superstar’s brilliance in the face of injuries, and the other showcasing depth and balanced contributions. While the odds favor Miami, the Suns have a history of resilience when led by Devin Booker. Expect an intense, tightly contested matchup.