Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs Picks and Predictions January 19th 2025

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs January 19th 2025

At 3:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-148) will host the San Antonio Spurs (+126) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat are favored by 3 points and have lost three straight games. The Spurs are 12th in the Western Conference and have dropped two in a row. The over/under line for this game is 219.5 points.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on FDSS.

Spurs vs. Heat Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat
• Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
• Date: Sunday, January 19th
• Betting Odds MIA -3, SA +126 | MIA -148 O/U 219.5

The Spurs Can Win If…

The Spurs fell to 19-21 on the season after a 140-112 loss to the Grizzlies on Friday. San Antonio, favored by 1 point at home, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points reached 252, surpassing the O/U line of 236.5 by 15.5 points.

After a competitive first half, the Spurs were outscored 40-22 in the 3rd quarter. Memphis then went on an 18-0 run, stretching the score from 88-86 to 104-88, and closed out the game by outscoring San Antonio 38-26 in the 4th quarter.

In their loss to the Grizzlies, the Spurs shot 47.6% from the field and made 13 threes at a 36.1% clip. Devin Vassell led the team with 21 points, hitting 3 threes and shooting 53.8% overall.

Stephon Castle added 20 points, shooting 63.6%, while Victor Wembanyama contributed 19 points and 12 rebounds, also making 3 threes. Vassell scored 15 points in the 3rd quarter, while Wembanyama added 10 in the 4th.

The Spurs struggled defensively on Friday, giving up 140 points to the Grizzlies. San Antonio allowed 27 points in the 1st quarter, 35 in the 2nd, and things got worse in the 2nd half, with 40 points allowed in the 3rd and 38 in the 4th.

Overall, the Grizzlies shot 56% from the field, including 43% from three-point range, where they hit 19 threes. The Spurs sent Memphis to the line 15 times, where they made 11 free throws. San Antonio finished with 30 defensive rebounds, while giving up 10 offensive boards, and recorded 4 steals and 8 blocks.

• In their last ten games away from home, the Spurs have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 109 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, San Antonio has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Over their last three games, the Spurs have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat fell to 20-20 on the season after a 133-113 home loss to the Nuggets on Friday. Miami entered the game as +3 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 246 points exceeded the over/under line of 228.5 by 17.5 points.

Miami trailed 30-24 after the 1st quarter and 67-55 at halftime. They kept pace in the 3rd quarter, matching Denver’s 31 points, but were unable to close the gap, as the Nuggets outscored them 35-27 in the 4th.

In their 133-113 loss to the Nuggets, the Heat shot 49.5% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 9 threes at a 27.3% rate. Tyler Herro led Miami with 22 points, shooting 58.8% from the field, while Jimmy Butler added 18 points.

Nikola Jovic contributed 16 points, matching Bam Adebayo’s output. Herro scored 7 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, while Butler added 10 points in the 3rd. Terry Rozier also scored 10 points in the final period.

The Heat struggled defensively against the Nuggets, giving up 133 points on 54% shooting. Denver scored at least 30 points in every quarter, including 37 in the 2nd. Miami allowed 16 threes, with the Nuggets hitting 48% from beyond the arc.

Miami sent Denver to the free-throw line 19 times, where the Nuggets made 17. The Heat recorded 35 defensive rebounds, allowing 7 offensive boards. They finished with just 2 steals and no blocks.

• When looking at their past three home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Heat have a straight up record of 2-1, while going 1-2 against the spread.
• In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

As the underdogs with a spread of +3, we recommend going with the Spurs on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 219.5 and given that our model is projecting 260 points between the teams, we like the over.

Heat and Spurs Battle to End Losing Streaks

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs, both eager to bounce back from recent struggles, meet on Sunday in Miami. While Miami deals with a Jimmy Butler controversy and a three-game skid, San Antonio looks to overcome two straight losses under interim coach Mitch Johnson.

Miami Heat: Searching for Stability

The Heat (0-3 in their last three games) are navigating a tumultuous stretch fueled by off-court distractions. Jimmy Butler, who recently returned from a seven-game suspension for “conduct detrimental to the team,” had a muted performance in Friday’s 133-113 loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Butler managed just 18 points, three rebounds, and two assists in his first game back since Jan. 2. His lackluster showing raises questions about whether his struggles stem from rust, declining passion for the game, or the toll of a 14-year NBA career.

When asked if the rift between him and the team could be resolved, Butler offered a cryptic “no comment.” However, he did express positive sentiments about his teammates: “These guys are cool — they’re my friends. My beef was never with them.”

Head coach Erik Spoelstra emphasized defense as Miami’s primary issue. “From a defensive standpoint, it wasn’t good enough, and that’s three straight games,” Spoelstra said after Friday’s loss.

The Heat will need contributions from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, who have shouldered much of the load in Butler’s absence. Adebayo remains a force in the paint, while Herro provides a scoring spark from the perimeter.

San Antonio Spurs: Building Around Wembanyama

The Spurs (0-2 in their last two games) are banking on the brilliance of Victor Wembanyama, the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year. Wembanyama, now in his second season, is delivering MVP-caliber numbers, averaging 24.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and a league-leading 4.1 blocks per game.

In two matchups against Miami this season, Wembanyama averaged 18.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, though San Antonio lost both games. His continued evolution as a dominant two-way player gives the Spurs a chance to compete against any opponent.

Chris Paul, the 39-year-old point guard, has brought much-needed leadership to a young Spurs roster. Averaging 9.6 points, 8.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game, Paul’s experience and basketball IQ have elevated the Spurs after two consecutive 22-60 seasons.

Interim coach Mitch Johnson has urged patience as the team navigates growing pains under his leadership, filling in for Gregg Popovich, who is sidelined for the season.

Key Matchups

1. Jimmy Butler vs. Victor Wembanyama: Butler’s ability to bounce back from his recent struggles will be tested against Wembanyama’s defensive prowess in the paint.
2. Chris Paul’s Playmaking vs. Miami’s Defense: Paul’s leadership and passing will challenge Miami’s defense, which has been criticized for lapses during their losing streak.
3. Bam Adebayo vs. Spurs’ Frontcourt: Adebayo’s physicality in the paint could be a game-changer, especially against a Spurs team leaning on Wembanyama for interior defense.

Stakes

For Miami, a win would help quell the growing tension around Butler’s return and provide much-needed momentum. San Antonio, meanwhile, hopes to show continued growth and resilience under Johnson’s interim leadership.

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Conclusion

Both teams are desperate to break their respective skids. Can the Heat find defensive consistency and a spark from Butler, or will Wembanyama and the Spurs’ balance deliver a road win? Sunday’s game promises intrigue and high stakes as two struggling squads battle for redemption.