Miami Heat vs Washington-Wizards March 3rd 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat (-397) will host the Washington Wizards (+308) in a Southeast Division matchup. Miami is currently favored by 9 points and the over/under line is set at 219.5.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on FDSS.

Wizards vs. Heat Key Information

Sport: NBA
Teams: Washington Wizards at Miami Heat
Where: Miami at Kaseya Center
Date: Monday, March 3rd
Betting Odds MIA -9, WAS +308 | MIA -397 O/U 219.5

The Wizards Can Win If…

Washington improved to 11-48 on the season with a 113-100 road win over the Hornets on Saturday. The Wizards entered the game as +4 point underdogs and covered the spread with the win. The combined score of 213 points fell short of the 224.5-point total.

Charlotte went on a 10-0 run to take the lead from 43-38 to 48-43, but Washington responded by outscoring the Hornets 30-16 in the 3rd quarter. The Wizards entered the 4th quarter with an 84-75 lead and closed out the game by outscoring the Hornets 29-25 in the final period.

In their win over the Hornets, the Wizards hit 17 threes, shooting 34% from deep and 45.5% overall. Bilal Coulibaly and Khris Middleton each scored 17 points, with Middleton shooting 55.6% from the field.

Richaun Holmes added 15 points on 83.3% shooting. Coulibaly scored 7 points in the 4th quarter, while Marcus Smart also added 7 of his 12 points in the final period.

Despite a rough 2nd quarter where they allowed 34 points, the Wizards tightened up defensively in the 3rd, giving up just 16 points to help secure the win over the Hornets. Washington held Charlotte to 100 points on 44% shooting.

The Wizards put the Hornets on the line just 6 times, with Charlotte converting 4 free throws. Washington also recorded 13 steals and 7 blocks in the game.

Across their ten previous road games, Washington has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 104 points per game.
The Wizards have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
Over their last five games, the Wizards have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Heat Can Win If…

Miami’s season record dropped to 28-31 after a 116-112 home loss to the Knicks on Sunday. The Heat, who were +6.5 point underdogs, covered the spread with the four-point loss. The game’s total score of 228 points went over the pre-game line of 220.

Miami looked strong early, going on a 16-0 run to push their lead from 44-39 to 60-39. They outscored the Knicks 35-23 in the 2nd quarter. However, New York responded by winning the 3rd quarter 36-25, and the Heat couldn’t hold onto their 87-81 lead heading into the 4th, as they were outscored 24-18 in the final period.

Bam Adebayo’s 30-point performance on 75% shooting led the Heat in their 116-112 loss to the Knicks. Tyler Herro added 22 points, though he struggled from the field, hitting just 33.3% overall and 18.2% from three-point range.

As a team, Miami shot 53.6% from the field, but connected on only 31.4% of their threes, making 11 in total. Kel’el Ware contributed 12 points, shooting 85.7%, while Alec Burks scored 9 of his 12 points in the 3rd quarter.

Defensively, the Heat had strong performances in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up just 22 and 23 points, respectively. However, a rough 3rd quarter saw them allow 36 points, which contributed to their 116-112 loss to the Knicks. They tightened up in the 4th, allowing 24 points but couldn’t overcome the deficit.

Miami held New York to 31% shooting from beyond the arc, with the Knicks hitting 14 threes. The Heat also sent the Knicks to the line 15 times, where they made 10 free throws. Miami finished with 31 defensive rebounds, gave up 11 offensive boards, and added 5 steals and 6 blocks.

When looking at their past five home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 1-3-1 while averaging 106 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Heat have a straight up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
In their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 3-0 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Heat, with a final score of 131-96, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Heat at -9.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 219.5 and given that our model is projecting 227 points between the teams, we like the over.

Heat Desperate to Regain Form as Wizards Visit Miami

The Miami Heat find themselves in a downward spiral, losing seven of their last ten games, and they urgently need a bounce-back win as they host the Washington Wizards on Monday.

The Heat are coming off a 116-112 overtime loss to the Knicks on Sunday, a game in which they blew a 19-point lead, scoring just 43 points in the second half and seven points in overtime.

With only 23 games remaining, Miami now sits five games behind Detroit for the final guaranteed playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Coach Erik Spoelstra knows his team needs to correct course quickly.

Injury Woes Continue for Miami

Miami’s recent struggles have been compounded by injuries.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle) missed Sunday’s game, and his timetable for return remains uncertain.
Andrew Wiggins (ankle), a key addition from last month’s Jimmy Butler trade, also sat out.

Wiggins has been one of Miami’s most consistent offensive options, averaging 17.8 points per game since joining the Heat.

“He loves the competitive feel of these last couple games,” Spoelstra said. “But we have to be smart about it. He’s been very diligent with his work and we’ll get him back soon.”

Without Wiggins and Jaquez, Miami struggled to find secondary scoring options behind Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro against New York.

Wizards Looking to Build Momentum on the Road

While Miami has been slipping in the standings, the Wizards have quietly found a bit of success, winning two of their last three games after enduring a six-game losing streak.

On Saturday, Washington kicked off a tough road-heavy stretch with a 113-100 win over Charlotte.

Eight Wizards scored in double figures, led by Bilal Coulibaly and newly acquired Khris Middleton, who each had 17 points.

Middleton, a three-time All-Star, is still adjusting after being traded from Milwaukee last month in a deal that sent Kyle Kuzma to the Bucks.

“He’s been doing this for a very long time,” Washington coach Brian Keefe said of Middleton. “He’s just getting his legs with us and learning some of the places he’s going to get to his (shooting) spots.”

Middleton, who has missed significant time due to injuries this season, is averaging 12.4 points per game, well below his career average of 16.7.

Washington’s Offense Faces Miami’s Stifling Defense

Scoring has been a season-long issue for the Wizards, who rank near the bottom of the NBA at 108.4 points per game.

Their leading scorer, Jordan Poole (21 PPG), missed Saturday’s win with an elbow injury, and his status for Monday remains uncertain.

Second-year wing Bilal Coulibaly has stepped up recently, scoring above his season average of 12.6 PPG in each of the last three games, including a 20-point outing vs. Brooklyn on Feb. 24.

Still, the Wizards will have their hands full against a Miami defense that ranks seventh in the NBA, allowing just 110.9 points per game.

Key Matchups to Watch

Bam Adebayo vs. Washington’s Frontcourt
Adebayo has been one of the Heat’s most consistent forces this season. The Wizards will need a big defensive effort to keep him from dominating the paint.

Andrew Wiggins (if available) vs. Khris Middleton
If Wiggins plays, this could be an intriguing battle between two versatile wings adjusting to new roles on new teams.

Miami’s Defense vs. Washington’s Scoring Struggles
The Wizards already struggle to score, and if Poole remains out, Miami’s defense could smother them.

Looking to apply expert strategies? Head to the NBA Pick Page for top betting predictions!

What’s at Stake?

For Miami, a win would:

Snap their three-game losing streak and help them stay in the playoff hunt.
Get them back on track at home, where they have struggled recently.
Regain momentum after blowing a big lead vs. the Knicks.

For Washington, a win would:

Mark their third win in four games, showing signs of improvement.
Provide confidence in their new-look roster after the trade deadline.
Keep them competitive in the Eastern Conference standings.

Can Miami Regain Its Form, or Will Washington Take Advantage?

With both teams fighting for positioning in the East, this game could be crucial for Miami as they look to avoid slipping further in the standings.

Will the Heat snap out of their funk, or can the Wizards steal another road win? The answer comes Monday night in South Beach.

Miami Heat vs Washington-wizards Picks and Predictions March 3rd 2025