Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions January 23rd 2025

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At 7:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-261) will host the Miami Heat (+216) in a Eastern Conference matchup. The Bucks are favored by 7 points and have won four straight games. The over/under line is set at 223.5 points.

This game will be played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The Heat are 9th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 21-21, while the Bucks are 4th in the East at 24-17. TNT will have the TV coverage for this game.

Heat vs. Bucks Key Information

  • Sport: NBA
  • Teams: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
  • Where: Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum
  • Date: Thursday, January 23rd
  • Betting Odds MIL -7, MIA +216 | MIL -261 O/U 223.5

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat fell to 21-21 on the season after a 116-107 loss to the Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Miami, favored by 9 points at home, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 223 points narrowly exceeded the O/U line of 218.5.

Miami started strong with an 11-0 run, pushing the score from 12-11 to 22-12. However, they struggled in the middle quarters, being outscored 27-17 in the 2nd and 36-22 in the 3rd. Despite a late push, outscoring Portland 30-19 in the 4th, they couldn’t overcome the 97-77 deficit heading into the final period.

In their 116-107 loss to the Trail Blazers, the Heat shot 44.1% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 14 threes. Duncan Robinson led the way with 22 points, knocking down 6 threes at a 50% clip, and added 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

Kel’el Ware contributed 20 points and 15 rebounds, while Jimmy Butler added 13 points and 8 assists. Robinson scored 11 points in the 1st quarter, while Pelle Larsson added 9 of his 11 points in the 4th.

Defensively, the Heat struggled in the 1st and 3rd quarters, giving up 34 and 36 points, respectively, in their 116-107 loss to the Trail Blazers. However, they tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 19 points. Overall, Miami allowed Portland to shoot 49% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Heat held the Blazers to 34% shooting, with Portland making 15 threes. Miami also sent Portland to the line 23 times, where they hit 15 free throws. The Heat finished with 33 defensive rebounds, gave up 11 offensive boards, and recorded 2 steals and 3 blocks.

  • In their last ten games away from home, the Heat have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 4-6 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 107 points per game in these contests.
  • Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
  • Over their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Bucks Can Win If…

Milwaukee improved to 24-17 on the season with a 123-109 win over the 76ers on Sunday. The Bucks, who were -13 point favorites, covered the spread with the 14-point victory. The total score of 232 points went over the pre-game line of 226.

After the 76ers went on a 10-0 run early, Milwaukee responded by outscoring them 66-60 over the next two quarters. The Bucks entered the 4th quarter with a 90-81 lead and closed out the game by outscoring Philadelphia 33-28 in the final period.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a 123-109 win over the 76ers, scoring 34 points and grabbing 15 rebounds while shooting 76.5% from the field. Damian Lillard added 25 points, with 16 coming in the 4th quarter.

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Milwaukee hit 14 threes at a 37.8% clip, finishing with a 49.4% field goal percentage overall. Khris Middleton contributed 13 points and 8 assists, and Brook Lopez scored 8 of his 12 points in the final period.

Defensively, the Bucks were solid in the 1st quarter, holding the 76ers to just 21 points. They allowed 29 points in the 2nd, 31 in the 3rd, and 28 in the 4th, but still managed to secure the win. Overall, Milwaukee gave up 109 points on 45% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks allowed 16 threes on 35% shooting. They sent the 76ers to the line 22 times, where Philadelphia made 15 free throws. Milwaukee controlled the boards with 41 defensive rebounds, giving up just 5 offensive boards. They also recorded 2 steals and 3 blocks.

  • Across the Bucks last three home games, the team averaged 114 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 2-1 straight-up.
  • Milwaukee has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • In their last five games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 5-0 vs. the spread.

The Lean

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Bucks to secure the win, with an expected final score of 140-112. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -7.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 223.5 and our model has the Heat and Bucks finishing with a combined 252 points. Our pick is to take the over.

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Bucks Return Home to Host Shorthanded Heat

After a winter storm delayed their return to Milwaukee, the Bucks hope to be ready for their Thursday night clash with the Miami Heat. The game comes as Milwaukee rides a hot streak, winning seven of their last eight games, while Miami struggles, dropping four of their past five.

Bucks Battle Travel Delays

The Bucks’ Wednesday game against New Orleans was postponed due to the storm, leaving the team stranded overnight. Milwaukee plans to fly back early Thursday, aiming to maintain their strong form after a 123-109 win over Philadelphia on Sunday.

Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to dominate, leading Milwaukee with averages of 31.5 points and 12 rebounds per game. Damian Lillard, coming off a 37-point, 12-assist performance in their last meeting with Miami, adds firepower to the Bucks’ offense.

“I’m happy we’re playing great team ball,” Antetokounmpo said. “We’ve been getting better every day.”

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Heat Missing Butler

Miami heads into this game without star Jimmy Butler, suspended for two games due to insubordination and missing the team flight. This marks the second time the Heat have suspended Butler this season.

Miami coach Erik Spoelstra expressed frustration after their 116-107 loss to Portland on Tuesday, particularly over the team’s lack of turnovers forced in the first half.
“We’re at our best when we’re disruptive,” Spoelstra said.

The Heat will also likely be without Josh Richardson (heel), and Keshad Johnson (shoulder) is questionable. Tyler Herro, who averages 24 points per game, is probable to play and will need to step up alongside Bam Adebayo (9.7 rebounds per game).

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What’s at Stake

Milwaukee won the season’s first matchup 106-103 in November, even without Antetokounmpo. Lillard carried the Bucks, hitting 8 of 13 from deep. Miami will need to adjust without Butler to prevent a repeat performance.

With the Bucks surging and the Heat missing key players, Thursday’s game will test both teams’ resilience. Can Milwaukee overcome travel delays, or will Miami find a way to rally without their star? Fans can expect an intense battle.

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