Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions March 16th 2025

Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder March 16th 2025

At 9:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (38-28) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (55-12) at Fiserv Forum. This non-conference matchup will be televised on ESPN.

Oklahoma City is currently favored by 4 points and has a moneyline of -168. The over/under line for the game is set at 231.5.

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Thunder vs. Bucks Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks
• Where: Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum
• Date: Sunday, March 16th
• Betting Odds OKC -4, OKC -168 | MIL +141 O/U 231.5

The Thunder Can Win If…

With a 113-107 win over the Pistons on Saturday, the Thunder improved to 55-12 for the season. Oklahoma City, who were -4.5 point favorites, covered the spread with the win. The game’s total points of 220 fell short of the 231.5 O/U line.

The Pistons went on a 14-0 run early, but the Thunder responded with a dominant 36-23 3rd quarter. Despite being outscored 30-22 in the 4th, Oklahoma City held on for the win after entering the final period with a 91-77 lead.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the star in the Thunder’s win over the Pistons, pouring in 48 points on 65.4% shooting, including 4 threes at 66.7%. Cason Wallace added 20 points, hitting 2 threes at 50%, while Isaiah Hartenstein contributed 12 points and 10 rebounds.

As a team, the Thunder shot 48.3% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, making just 10 threes at a 29.4% clip. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 17 points in the 3rd quarter, adding 11 more in the 4th.

Defensively, the Thunder held the Pistons to 107 points, giving up 23 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters. The Pistons scored 31 points in the 2nd quarter and 30 in the 4th.

Oklahoma City sent Detroit to the free-throw line 13 times, where they made 9. The Thunder finished with 34 defensive rebounds, allowing 6 offensive boards, and added 11 steals and 8 blocks.

• Across their last five road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 5-0. Their overall mark in these games was 5-0, while averaging 126 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight up record of 8-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
• Over their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Bucks Can Win If…

The Bucks improved to 38-28 this season with a 126-119 win over the Pacers on Saturday. Milwaukee, who were -3.5 point favorites, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 245 points went over the pre-game line of 235.5.

Milwaukee went on a 14-0 run early, extending their lead from 36-30 to 50-30. They dominated the 3rd quarter, outscoring Indiana 35-22, but the Pacers made a late push, winning the 4th quarter 37-26.

Giannis Antetokounmpo powered the Bucks to a win over the Pacers, scoring 34 points with 10 rebounds and 7 assists, shooting 73.7% from the field. Damian Lillard added 25 points, hitting 6 threes at a 50% clip, and also grabbed 10 boards.

Milwaukee shot 54.4% overall, connecting on 15 threes at 40.5%. Giannis scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter, while Lillard added 8 in the 4th.

Defensively, the Bucks had a strong 3rd quarter, holding the Pacers to just 22 points, but they struggled in the 4th, allowing 37 points. Overall, they gave up 119 points while Indiana shot 47% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers hit 17 threes at a 39% clip. The Bucks sent Indiana to the line 13 times, where they made 10 free throws. Milwaukee also recorded 9 steals and 4 blocks in the game.

• In their last five games at home, the Bucks have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 vs the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Bucks have an ATS mark of just 1-1-1 in their last three games. Milwaukee posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• In their last three games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

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The Lean

The Thunder is our selection to secure the victory, with a projected score of 137-131. We also like them to cover the spread, so we suggest betting on the Thunder at -4.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 231.5 and our model has the Thunder and Bucks finishing with a combined 268 points. Our pick is to take the over.

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MVP Candidate Gilgeous-Alexander Leads Thunder vs. Bucks

Thunder Riding High Behind Gilgeous-Alexander

The Oklahoma City Thunder (55-12) enter Sunday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks (38-28) on a hot streak, winning nine of their past ten games. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to make a strong case for MVP, the Thunder are comfortably leading the Western Conference.

Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 48 points in Oklahoma City’s recent 113-107 victory over the Detroit Pistons, marking his 12th game this season with 40-plus points. The star guard currently leads the NBA with an average of 33.0 points per game, complemented by 6.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds.

Despite individual accolades, Gilgeous-Alexander emphasizes team success:

“The reason why I have my success is because of this team and because of this group.”

Bucks Seek Consistency Behind Antetokounmpo

The Bucks are looking for their third consecutive win, coming off a solid 126-119 victory against the Indiana Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmpo continued his outstanding form with 34 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists before fouling out.

Bucks coach Doc Rivers believes Antetokounmpo deserves more MVP recognition, noting his impressive averages of 30.6 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.9 assists:

“I’m not going to campaign, but he is a forgotten guy with what he’s been doing for our basketball team.”

Injury Updates

Oklahoma City navigates some injuries, recently missing key players Jalen Williams (hip) and Chet Holmgren (rest), with Luguentz Dort suffering a hip injury. Holmgren is expected to return against Milwaukee. The Bucks are aiming to keep their core healthy and competitive.

Players to Watch

Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring prowess will again be crucial for the Thunder, with rookie Cason Wallace also coming off a strong 20-point performance. For Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, who had 25 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists against the Pacers, will be central to their success.

Season Series Recap

The Thunder dominated their previous meeting on Feb. 3, winning 125-96, though the Bucks played without both Antetokounmpo and Lillard due to injuries. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 points in that victory.

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Keys to Victory

Oklahoma City must maintain offensive consistency, especially through Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-caliber play. Milwaukee will rely on aggressive scoring from Antetokounmpo and perimeter support from Lillard to counter the Thunder’s potent attack.

Betting Odds and Expert Analysis

Explore our comprehensive expert betting guide for detailed game analysis, insights on MVP candidates, and the latest NBA odds.