Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix-suns Picks and Predictions March 28th 2025

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix-Suns March 28th 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-270) will host the Suns (+221) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is 226.5.

Minnesota is currently favored by 7 points and is 41-32 on the season. Phoenix is 35-38 and 11th in the Western Conference.

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Suns vs. Timberwolves Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
• Where: Minneapolis at Target Center
• Date: Friday, March 28th
• Betting Odds MIN -7, PHO +221 | MIN -270 O/U 226.5

The Suns Can Win If…

The Suns dropped to 35-38 on the season after a 132-102 home loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. Phoenix entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 234 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 221.5 by 12.5 points.

Phoenix went on a 10-0 run early, taking the lead at 24-23, but Boston responded by outscoring them 31-16 in the 2nd quarter. Heading into the 4th quarter, the Suns trailed 108-81, and the Celtics closed out the game by winning the final quarter 24-21.

In Wednesday’s loss to the Celtics, the Suns managed just 102 points, shooting 41.4% from the field and 31.7% from three, hitting 13 threes overall. Kevin Durant led the way with 30 points, knocking down 3 threes at a 75% rate and shooting 68.8% from the field.

Devin Booker added 14 points and 10 assists, though he shot just 30.8%. Nick Richards chipped in 10 points, hitting 71.4% of his shots. Durant scored 16 points in the 1st quarter and added 10 more in the 3rd.

The Suns struggled defensively on Wednesday, giving up 132 points to the Celtics, including 42 in the 1st quarter. Phoenix allowed 31 points in the 2nd and 35 in the 3rd before holding Boston to 24 in the 4th.

Boston shot 50% from the field, including 42% from three, where they hit 22 threes. The Celtics also went 20/22 from the free-throw line. The Suns had 27 defensive rebounds, allowing 11 offensive boards, while recording 7 steals and 3 blocks.

• Phoenix has a 1-4 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 116 points per game while allowing 120. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Suns have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• Over their last five games, the Suns have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Timberwolves Can Win If…

After a 119-103 loss to the Pacers on Monday, the Timberwolves are now 41-32 this season. Minnesota, who were -1.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 222 fell short of the 230.5 O/U line.

A key moment was a 12-0 run by the Pacers, which stretched the score from 67-57 to 79-57. Minnesota couldn’t recover after being outscored 41-25 in the 3rd quarter, despite winning the 4th quarter 30-24.

The Timberwolves struggled offensively in their loss to the Pacers, scoring just 103 points. They shot 48.4% from the field, but connected on only 9 threes, shooting 25.7% from beyond the arc.

Naz Reid led the way with 20 points, hitting 3 threes at a 50% clip. Anthony Edwards added 17 points, while Rudy Gobert contributed 16 points and 16 rebounds, shooting 66.7% from the field.

The Timberwolves gave up 119 points to the Pacers, with their defense struggling particularly in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed 41 points. They did manage to limit Indiana to 25 points in the 1st and 24 in the 4th.

Minnesota allowed Indiana to shoot 48% from the field, including 37% from three, where the Pacers hit 13 threes. The Timberwolves sent the Pacers to the line 14 times, where they converted all their free throws. Defensively, Minnesota recorded 5 steals and 3 blocks.

• In their last ten games at home, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their previous five games as the favorite, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• In their last three games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re putting our money on the Timberwolves to win, and have the projected score sitting at 131-119. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Timberwolves at -7.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 226.5, and our model projects the Suns and Timberwolves to reach a combined total of 250 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Timberwolves, Suns Emphasize Defensive Urgency in Crucial Western Clash

MINNEAPOLIS — With playoff positioning at stake, both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are shifting their focus to defense ahead of their Friday night showdown at Target Center.

Defensive Breakdowns Prompt Self-Reflection for Minnesota

The Timberwolves (41-32) return from a three-day layoff aiming to end a brief slump and maintain pace in the tight Western Conference standings. Sitting just outside the top six, Minnesota is looking to avoid the play-in tournament altogether and secure a guaranteed postseason berth.

After allowing 117 points or more in four of their past five games, the Timberwolves spent much of their time off reviewing defensive lapses.

“The film doesn’t lie,” veteran guard Mike Conley said. “You look at the film and every guy is making mistakes—some mental, some effort-related. We can’t keep flipping the switch from one game to the next.”

Despite some inconsistency, Minnesota enters Friday having already clinched the season series against Phoenix, winning all three prior matchups, including a convincing 116-98 win in the desert on March 2. Anthony Edwards remains the offensive engine, averaging 27.3 points per game while shooting nearly 40 percent from deep.

Phoenix Looks to Bounce Back from Defensive Collapse

The Suns (35-38) are coming off a humbling 132-111 loss to the Eastern Conference-leading Boston Celtics. The loss snapped a four-game win streak and further complicated Phoenix’s grip on a play-in spot.

Head coach Mike Budenholzer acknowledged that the team took a step backward defensively but believes recent progress provides a foundation.

“Boston punched us in the mouth,” Budenholzer said. “But we’ve got another chance to defend, and we have to take it. Defense is going to determine whether we play in April or go home.”

Phoenix will once again be without Bradley Beal (left hamstring), marking his sixth consecutive absence. In his place, the Suns continue to lean heavily on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, who are combining for over 52 points per game. Durant, in particular, is enjoying one of his most efficient shooting seasons, hitting 53 percent from the field and 43 percent from beyond the arc.

Budenholzer also noted the development of his big men, Nick Richards and rookie Oso Ighodaro, as essential to adapting to perimeter-heavy lineups like Minnesota’s.

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What’s at Stake

Minnesota is trying to leap back into the top six to avoid the uncertainty of a play-in tournament, while Phoenix is trying to stay in the mix entirely. A win for the Timberwolves would complete a 4-0 sweep of the Suns in the regular season and give them a critical head-to-head edge.

With both teams acknowledging their recent defensive shortcomings, expect a more physical, locked-in battle on both ends of the floor Friday night.