New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions March 17th 2025

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat March 17th 2025

At 7:30 ET, the Knicks (-292) will host the Heat (+240) in an Eastern Conference matchup. Miami has lost seven straight games and is currently 9th in the East. The Knicks are 3rd in the East and favored by 7.5 points.

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden in New York. The over/under line is currently sitting at 212 points. You can watch this game on ESPN.

Heat vs. Knicks Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at New York Knicks
• Where: New York at Madison Square Garden
• Date: Monday, March 17th
• Betting Odds NY -7.5, MIA +240 | NY -292 O/U 212

The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat dropped to 29-38 on the season after a 125-91 road loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. Miami entered the game as +6 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 216, falling short of the 224.5 O/U line.

A 14-0 run by Memphis early on set the tone, and Miami couldn’t recover. The Heat trailed 38-27 after the 1st quarter and 63-48 at halftime. A 31-19 3rd quarter by the Grizzlies put the game out of reach, and Miami couldn’t mount a comeback in the 4th.

In their 125-91 loss to the Grizzlies, the Heat struggled offensively, shooting just 39.8% from the field and hitting only 9 threes at a 24.3% clip. Kel’el Ware led Miami with 19 points and 11 rebounds, scoring 10 of his points in the 4th quarter.

Bam Adebayo added 18 points, with 12 coming in the 3rd quarter. Kyle Anderson and Jaime Jaquez each contributed 13 points, with Anderson also dishing out 5 assists.

The Heat struggled defensively, giving up 125 points to the Grizzlies, including 38 in the 1st quarter. They allowed 31 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters, despite holding Memphis to 25 points in the 2nd.

Miami allowed Memphis to shoot 55% from the field, including 38% from three, where the Grizzlies made 12 threes. The Heat sent Memphis to the line 12 times, where they made 11 free throws. Miami finished with 6 steals and 4 blocks.

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 3-6-1 while averaging 104 per game. The team went 2-8 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 0-5 vs. the spread.

The Knicks Can Win If…

The Knicks fell to 42-24 on the season after a 97-94 road loss to the Warriors on Saturday. New York, who entered the game as +6.5 point underdogs, kept it close, losing by just three points. The total score of 191 points was well below the pre-game O/U line of 228.5.

New York trailed 32-31 after the 1st quarter and were down 54-50 at halftime. They edged the Warriors 22-21 in the 3rd quarter but couldn’t close the gap in the 4th, as both teams scored 22 points in the final period.

Karl-Anthony Towns led the Knicks with 29 points and 12 rebounds in their 97-94 loss to the Warriors, shooting 57.1% from the field and hitting 3 threes at 60% efficiency. OG Anunoby added 23 points, while Mikal Bridges and Miles McBride each contributed 19 points.

The Knicks shot 43% from the field and made 9 threes at 37.5% efficiency. Towns scored 11 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, while Anunoby added 7 points in the final period.

Despite a rough 1st quarter where the Knicks gave up 32 points, they tightened up defensively, allowing just 22 points in the 2nd and 4th quarters and 21 in the 3rd. Overall, they held the Warriors to 97 points on 39% shooting.

From beyond the arc, the Knicks limited Golden State to 13 threes on 31% shooting. They also sent the Warriors to the line 22 times, where they made 18 free throws. Defensively, New York recorded 6 steals and 6 blocks.

• In their last three home games, New York has averaged 113 points per game while allowing 104. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Knicks have an overall record of 4-1 while going 1-4 against the spread.
• In their last three games, the Knicks have an over/under record of 0-3 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +7.5, the Heat is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 212, and our model predicts the Heat and Knicks to score a combined 232 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Knicks, Missing Jalen Brunson, Host Freefalling Heat

The New York Knicks return home Monday night looking to shake off their recent struggles as they take on the Miami Heat, who are in a freefall in the Eastern Conference.

The Knicks (42-24) are still in a solid position, sitting third in the Eastern Conference standings and holding a four-game cushion over the Milwaukee Bucks. However, they have dropped three of their last five games, struggling to generate offense without Jalen Brunson, who remains out with an ankle injury.

Brunson, the team’s most clutch player, was injured in overtime of the Knicks’ 113-109 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on March 6. Since then, New York’s offense has sputtered.

Offensive Struggles Without Brunson

Before Brunson’s injury, the Knicks averaged 116.7 points per game. Over the last four games, that number has dipped to 109 points per game.

Their 94-point effort against the Warriors on Saturday tied a season-low scoring total, highlighting their reliance on Brunson’s playmaking ability.

“We’re struggling offensively—I don’t think that’s a secret,” said Josh Hart, who was scoreless in 38 minutes against Golden State. “With more reps, more time getting organized, getting in play calls, those kinds of things, I think everything will flourish.”

The Knicks’ offensive woes were also evident in their 105-95 loss to the Clippers, marking the second time in four games they failed to break the 100-point mark.

Heat in Freefall Since Trading Jimmy Butler

The Heat (29-38) have been on a downward spiral ever since trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors on February 6. Before the trade, Miami was sixth in the Eastern Conference. Now, they sit in ninth place, just one game ahead of the Chicago Bulls for the final play-in tournament spot.

Miami has lost seven straight games, including a 125-91 blowout against the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. They have also lost 14 of their last 18 games, with seven of those losses coming by double digits.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra did not hold back after their latest defeat.

“We have a certain standard of how we expect to play and compete, and we did not meet that standard,” Spoelstra said. “When we meet that standard, it doesn’t mean that we’re going to win. Obviously, we’re struggling to figure out how to win games.”

Heat’s Playoff Hopes Slipping Away

The Heat need to finish 12-3 in their final 15 games to avoid their first losing season since 2018-19. If they fail, it would be just the third losing season in Spoelstra’s 17-year tenure as head coach.

In their last three losses, the Heat have rarely led:

• Against the Clippers, they held the lead for just 19 seconds in a 119-104 loss.
• Against the Celtics, they were ahead for fewer than 12 minutes in a 103-91 loss.
• Against the Grizzlies, they never led, despite Ja Morant being out for Memphis.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Knicks’ Offense Without Brunson

With Brunson still out, can the Knicks’ secondary playmakers step up, or will their offensive struggles continue?

2. Heat’s Defensive Identity

Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat’s once-elite defense has been exposed. Can they tighten up against a Knicks team that has been struggling to score?

3. Tyler Herro’s Scoring Load

With Miami’s struggles, Tyler Herro has had to take on a larger role. He leads the team with 23.6 points and 5.7 assists per game, but can he do enough to get the Heat back in the win column?

What’s at Stake?

For the Knicks, this is an opportunity to stabilize their offense without Brunson and hold onto their third-place spot in the Eastern Conference.

For the Heat, this game is crucial. A loss would push them closer to falling out of the play-in tournament, making their NBA Championship hopes even slimmer.

With both teams struggling, who will step up and take control in this Eastern Conference showdown?