Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions March 9th 2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets March 9th 2025

At 1:00 ET, the Thunder (-303) will host the Nuggets (+249) in a Western Northwest division matchup. Oklahoma City (-8) is favored in this game and will be looking to extend their 6-game win streak. Denver (+8) has won two straight games and is currently 2nd in the Western Conference.

This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on ABC. The over/under line for this game is 240 points.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Sunday, March 9th
• Betting Odds OKC -8, DEN +249 | OKC -303 O/U 240

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets improved to 41-22 on the season after a 149-141 win over the Suns on Friday. Denver was at home and entered the game as -9 point favorites, but didn’t cover the spread. The total points of 290 far exceeded the over/under line of 242.5 by 47.5 points.

Denver led 102-91 going into the 4th quarter after winning the 1st and 2nd quarters 37-28 and 31-28, respectively. The Suns made a push in the 4th, outscoring the Nuggets 34-23, but Denver held on for the win.

The Nuggets poured in 149 points in their win over the Suns, shooting 58.8% from the field and hitting 21 threes at a 52.5% clip. Nikola Jokić led the way with 31 points, 22 assists, and 21 rebounds, while Aaron Gordon added 27 points, knocking down 7 threes at 70% efficiency.

Christian Braun contributed 25 points, hitting 4 threes at 80%, and scoring 9 points in overtime. Jamal Murray also added 6 of his 19 points in the extra period.

Despite giving up 141 points, the Nuggets still managed to pull off a win against the Suns. Denver allowed 28 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, but Phoenix scored 35 in the 3rd and 34 in the 4th. The Suns shot 56% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets allowed Phoenix to hit 16 threes at a 42% clip. The Suns also went to the line 29 times, making 23 free throws. Denver gave up 7 offensive rebounds while recording 8 steals and 3 blocks.

• Denver has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 119 points per game while allowing 114. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Denver has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 4-6 straight up.
• Over their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

With a 107-89 win over the Trail Blazers on Friday, the Thunder improved to 52-11 for the season. Oklahoma City, favored by 1.5 points, covered the spread at home. The total score of 196 points fell well short of the 228-point over/under line.

A key 12-0 run early in the game helped the Thunder take control, and they extended their lead by outscoring Portland 34-21 in the 2nd quarter. After the Trail Blazers fought back in the 3rd quarter, the Thunder clamped down on defense in the 4th, holding Portland to 16 points while scoring 27 of their own.

Aaron Wiggins led the Thunder to a win over the Trail Blazers, scoring 30 points on 50% shooting. Alex Caruso added 17 points, hitting 75% of his shots, and Ousmane Dieng contributed 16 points, knocking down 4 threes at a 66.7% rate.

Oklahoma City made 14 threes as a team, shooting 36.8% from deep and 46.4% overall. Wiggins scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter, while Caruso added 10 in the 4th, and Isaiah Joe put up 11 of his 16 points in the 2nd period.

The Thunder put on a defensive clinic against the Trail Blazers, holding them to just 89 points on 34% shooting. Oklahoma City was especially tough in the 4th quarter, where they allowed only 16 points to seal the win. The Thunder gave up 24 points in the 1st quarter, 21 in the 2nd, and 28 in the 3rd.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder limited Portland to just 8 made threes on 18% shooting. The Trail Blazers also went 15/18 from the free-throw line. Oklahoma City finished with 39 defensive rebounds, gave up 14 offensive boards, and recorded 12 steals and 8 blocks.

• Although Oklahoma City has a straight up record of 8-2 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 124 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight up record of 8-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• In their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re putting our money on the Thunder to win, and have the projected score sitting at 139-123. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Thunder at -8.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 240, and our model projects the Nuggets and Thunder to reach a combined total of 262 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

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Nuggets, Thunder Set for Battle Between West’s Best

The Denver Nuggets (43-19) and Oklahoma City Thunder (45-17) will square off Sunday in a high-stakes Western Conference showdown featuring two of the top MVP candidates in the league—Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The game marks the first of back-to-back matchups in Oklahoma City and could have a significant impact on the Western Conference playoff picture.

Denver won the NBA championship just two seasons ago, and Jokic has claimed three MVP trophies in the last four seasons. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander is emerging as a front-runner for this year’s award, leading the Thunder to a double-digit lead over the rest of the West.

Both teams enter the game red-hot:

• The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 16 games and are gaining momentum down the stretch.
• The Thunder have won six straight and 15 of their last 17 as they chase the No. 1 seed.

Nikola Jokic’s Historic Performance vs. Phoenix

Jokic is coming off one of the greatest statistical games in NBA history, leading Denver to a 149-141 overtime win over the Suns on Friday with:

• 31 points
• 21 rebounds
• 22 assists

He became the first player in NBA history to record a 30-20-20 game and broke Wilt Chamberlain’s 56-year-old record for most assists in a game by a center (22).

With Jamal Murray healthy and Michael Porter Jr. playing well, the Nuggets look every bit like a title contender heading into this heavyweight battle.

Thunder Proving They’re Built for the Moment

Oklahoma City has quickly risen to the top of the West, and their resilience was on full display in Friday’s 107-89 win over Portland.

Despite resting Gilgeous-Alexander and missing five other key players, the Thunder still pulled off the win behind Aaron Wiggins (30 points) and Jaylin Williams (first career triple-double).

With Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and others expected to return, Oklahoma City should be at full strength against Denver.

Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off two monster performances:

• 41 points vs. Memphis on Wednesday
• 51 points vs. Houston on Monday

His ability to match Jokic’s impact will be crucial in determining the outcome of Sunday’s game.

Key Players to Watch

Denver Nuggets

• Nikola Jokic – Coming off an unprecedented 30-20-20 performance, he continues to dominate all aspects of the game.
• Jamal Murray – A key scoring option, averaging 20.4 points and 6.5 assists per game.
• Michael Porter Jr. – Can provide a scoring punch from deep when needed.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – One of the most efficient scorers in the NBA, averaging 31.1 PPG on 54.6% shooting.
• Jalen Williams – A two-way force who provides versatility and secondary playmaking.
• Chet Holmgren – His rim protection and floor spacing will be critical against Jokic.

Want to sharpen your betting strategies? Read the ultimate guide 👉 NBA Expert Betting Guide

Game Outlook & Prediction

This is a must-watch battle between two elite teams with championship aspirations.

Denver’s experience and Jokic’s all-time level of play give them an edge, but the Thunder’s depth and home-court advantage make them tough to beat.

Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic putting on MVP-worthy performances.

Prediction: Thunder 121, Nuggets 118

This one should go down to the wire, but Oklahoma City’s home-court dominance and youthful energy give them a slight edge over the defending champs.