Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions March 10th 2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets March 10th 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Thunder (-362) will host the Nuggets (+288) in a Western Northwest Division matchup. Oklahoma City is favored by 9 points and has won 7 straight games. The over/under line is set at 238.5.

This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on NBA TV. The Nuggets are 41-23 and currently sit 3rd in the Western Conference. The Thunder (53-11) are the top team in the West.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Monday, March 10th
• Betting Odds OKC -9, DEN +288 | OKC -362 O/U 238.5

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets fell to 41-23 on the season after a 127-103 road loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Denver, who entered the game as +7.5 point underdogs, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 230 points fell short of the 242.5-point total line.

Denver started strong with a 10-0 run, but the Thunder edged them out in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Heading into the 4th quarter down 86-83, the Nuggets were outscored 41-20 in the final period.

In their 127-103 loss to the Thunder, the Nuggets struggled offensively, shooting just 41.2% from the field and 30% from three-point range, making 12 threes overall. Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokić each scored 24 points, with Porter grabbing 15 rebounds and hitting 3 threes at 37.5% efficiency.

Christian Braun added 19 points, connecting on 3 of his 5 three-point attempts. Jokić scored 14 of his points in the first quarter, while Braun contributed 13 in the second.

Defensively, the Nuggets struggled in the 4th quarter, giving up 41 points in their 127-103 loss to the Thunder. They allowed 33 points in the 2nd quarter but managed to hold Oklahoma City to 25 points in the 3rd. Overall, the Thunder shot 48% from the field.

Denver did a decent job defending the three, with the Thunder hitting 13 threes at a 34% clip. The Nuggets sent Oklahoma City to the line 25 times, where they converted 22 free throws. Denver finished with 34 defensive rebounds, allowing 10 offensive boards, while recording 3 steals and 6 blocks.

• Although Denver has a straight up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 117 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.
• Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

The Thunder improved to 53-11 this season with a 127-103 win over the Nuggets on Sunday. Oklahoma City was favored by 7.5 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 230 points fell short of the 242.5-point line.

After Denver’s early 10-0 run, the Thunder gradually took control, winning each of the next three quarters. They sealed the game with a dominant 4th quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 41-20.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 40 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in the Thunder’s 127-103 win over the Nuggets, shooting 46.9% from the field and hitting just 2 of 11 from three-point range. Jalen Williams added 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists, connecting on 50% of his shots and making 2 threes at a 50% clip.

The Thunder shot 48.9% from the field as a team, making 13 threes at a 34.2% rate. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 12 points in the 1st quarter and 11 in the 3rd, while Williams contributed 13 points in the 4th quarter.

The Thunder’s defense tightened up in the 2nd half, allowing just 43 points in the 3rd and 4th quarters to help secure a 127-103 win over the Nuggets. Oklahoma City held Denver to 41% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder limited the Nuggets to 12 made threes on 30% shooting. Oklahoma City also sent Denver to the line 20 times, where they made 11 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 46 rebounds and 14 blocks.

• The Thunder are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 5-0 straight-up.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 3-0.
• In their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re calling a win for the Thunder, with a final score of 139-123, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Thunder at -9.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 238.5, and our model projects the Nuggets and Thunder to reach a combined total of 262 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

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MVP Candidates Square Off Again in Thunder-Nuggets Rematch

For the second time in as many days, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will face off in Oklahoma City.

The teams—two of the top three in the Western Conference—meet Monday night, one day after the Thunder’s dominant 127-103 home victory over the Nuggets.

Thunder Rolling Behind Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City enters the matchup riding a seven-game winning streak, its fourth such streak of the season. Leading the charge is MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to strengthen his case for the league’s top honor.

Over his past three games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 44 points, five rebounds, and 6.7 assists while committing just 2.3 turnovers. He has also made all 28 of his free throws in that span. On Sunday, he torched Denver for 40 points, eight rebounds, and five assists with just one turnover, going 8-for-8 from the free-throw line.

“You have to give Shai so much attention because he can beat you one-on-one. He’s great at getting to the foul line,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. “So as you give a crowd to him, can you get out to their shooters?”

Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads the NBA in scoring at 32.9 points per game, understands that his MVP buzz will only continue to grow as long as the Thunder remain at the top of the Western Conference standings.

“It’s something to talk about,” he said. “It’s entertainment. It’s a part of the sport. It’s an honor to be in the conversation, to be regarded as such.”

Nuggets Looking to Bounce Back

Denver is aiming to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since late January. The Nuggets were competitive for three quarters on Sunday before Oklahoma City pulled away in the fourth.

“The details matter and the little things matter when you’re playing against a team like that,” Malone said. “To beat the No. 1 team in the West, you can’t play for three quarters. It’s going to take a 48-minute effort.”

Nikola Jokic, another MVP frontrunner, put up 24 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists in the loss. He remains among the league leaders in multiple categories, averaging 28.8 points (third), 12.9 rebounds (third), and 10.5 assists (second) per game.

One of the biggest concerns for the Nuggets is the health of Aaron Gordon, who left Sunday’s game in the first quarter due to right calf tightness. Gordon has already missed time twice this season due to a calf injury, and his availability for Monday remains uncertain.

“Injuries are part of basketball,” Jokic said. “He’s fighting. He’s trying to get back. But hopefully he’s going to be ready and healthy for the playoffs.”

Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren played a key role defensively in Sunday’s win, recording four blocks. If he plays Monday, it will mark the first time he has participated in both games of a back-to-back since returning from a pelvic fracture in early February.

Monday’s matchup will be the final regular-season meeting between the teams, with the Thunder having won two of the first three.

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