Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets March 3rd 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Houston Rockets (37-23, 5th in the Western Conference) will travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11, 1st in the Western Conference) in a Western Conference matchup. The Thunder are currently favored by 11 points and have a moneyline of -528.

This game will be played at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on NBA TV. The over/under line for the game is currently set at 226.5 points. The Thunder have won three straight games and are 1st in the Western Conference, while the Rockets are 5th in the Western Conference.

Rockets vs. Thunder Key Information

Sport: NBA
Teams: Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
Date: Monday, March 3rd
Betting Odds OKC -11, HOU +393 | OKC -528 O/U 226.5

The Rockets Can Win If…

The Rockets’ season record fell to 37-23 after a 113-103 home loss to the Kings on Saturday. Houston, favored by 4 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 216, falling short of the 230.5 O/U line.

A 15-0 run by the Kings early on set the tone, as they took the lead from 6-3 to 18-6. Despite a high-scoring 2nd quarter (38-38), Houston couldn’t close the gap, trailing 89-82 going into the 4th, where they were outscored 24-21.

Alperen Şengün led the Rockets with 30 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 62.5% from the field in their 113-103 loss to the Kings. Jalen Green added 24 points, hitting 4 threes at a 40% rate, and Tari Eason contributed 14 points, making 3 threes at 60% efficiency.

Houston shot 43% from the field, with a 37.1% success rate from beyond the arc, connecting on 13 threes. Şengün scored 10 points in the 1st quarter, while Green had 12 in the 3rd, and Eason added 9 in the final period. Dillon Brooks scored all 12 of his points in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the Rockets struggled in the 2nd quarter, giving up 38 points, which contributed to their 113-103 loss to the Kings. However, they tightened up in the 3rd and 4th quarters, allowing just 26 and 24 points, respectively. Houston couldn’t slow down Sacramento’s overall shooting, as the Kings hit 50% of their shots.

From beyond the arc, the Rockets did well, holding the Kings to just 9 threes on 32% shooting. Houston sent Sacramento to the line 21 times, where they made 16 free throws. The Rockets collected 30 defensive rebounds but gave up 13 offensive boards, while also recording 7 steals and 2 blocks.

Through their last ten road games, Houston has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 114 points per game.
In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Rockets have a straight up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 0-3.
Over their last five games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

The Thunder improved to 49-11 on the season with a 146-132 win over the Spurs on Sunday. Oklahoma City, who were -13 point favorites, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total points of 278.5 exceeded the O/U line of 238.5 by 39.5 points.

After trailing 77-72 at halftime, the Thunder turned things around by outscoring the Spurs 36-23 in the 3rd quarter. They entered the 4th quarter with a 108-100 lead and finished strong, outscoring San Antonio 38-32 in the final period.

Jalen Williams dropped 41 points, including 17 in the 4th quarter, as the Thunder put up 146 points in their win over the Spurs. Williams also added 7 assists and 6 rebounds, shooting 62.5% from the field and hitting 4 threes at 50% efficiency.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contributed 31 points and 8 assists, making 3 threes at a 60% clip. The Thunder shot 54.5% from the field and hit 19 threes, shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc.

Despite giving up 132 points, the Thunder managed to secure a win over the Spurs. They struggled defensively in the 1st and 2nd quarters, allowing 38 and 39 points, respectively. However, they tightened up in the 3rd, giving up just 23 points before allowing 32 in the 4th.

Oklahoma City allowed San Antonio to shoot 56% from the field, including 41% from beyond the arc, where the Spurs hit 18 threes. The Thunder sent the Spurs to the line 16 times, where they converted 12 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 7 steals and 6 blocks.

The Thunder are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 3-0 straight-up.
Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Thunder struggled vs the spread going just 2-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 4-1.
In their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-2-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Thunder winning this one by a score of 138-116, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Thunder at -11.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 226.5 and given that our model is projecting 254 points between the teams, we like the over.

Thunder’s Offense on Fire as They Return Home to Face Rockets

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the NBA’s top defensive teams all season, but since the All-Star Break, it’s their offense that has taken center stage.

Heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Houston Rockets, the Thunder have been on a tear, winning five of their six games since the break while averaging an impressive 133 points per game.

That offensive explosion continued Sunday in a 146-132 win over San Antonio, setting a new season-high for points scored. However, it also marked the most points allowed by the Thunder this season, highlighting the team’s recent defensive slippage.

“You’ve got to execute in such a way that good shots present themselves on a possession,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “That’s what’s really happening right now is we’re executing on a high level, which is a cumulative effect of all of our fundamentals.”

Now, Oklahoma City returns home for a four-game stretch, looking to keep its offensive momentum rolling against a Rockets team that ranks fourth in defensive rating.

Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams Leading OKC’s Surge

The Thunder’s offensive explosion has been fueled by the dynamic duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, who are coming off their best combined performance of the season.

Williams erupted for a career-high 41 points against the Spurs, adding five rebounds and five assists.
Gilgeous-Alexander chipped in 31 points, continuing his aggressive play attacking the basket.
Most impressively, neither player committed a turnover, showcasing OKC’s offensive efficiency.

Williams’ continued emergence has given Oklahoma City another legitimate offensive weapon, easing the load on Gilgeous-Alexander as the team gears up for the final stretch of the regular season.

Rockets Defense Faces a Major Test

Despite their struggles in Saturday’s 113-103 loss to Sacramento, the Rockets remain one of the NBA’s top defensive teams, allowing just 109.4 points per 100 possessions (4th in the league).

However, coach Ime Udoka was frustrated with Houston’s defense, particularly the team’s lack of discipline against pump fakes and pick-and-roll coverage.

Oklahoma City, led by Gilgeous-Alexander, will attack those weaknesses aggressively, especially with his ability to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line.

“Can’t show it any more than we did,” Udoka said. “Lack of discipline.”

If the Rockets want to slow down the Thunder, they must stay disciplined defensively and avoid unnecessary fouls.

Ready to place a bet? Make sure to check out the NBA Pick Page for expert predictions before making your move!

Injury Concerns for Both Teams

The Thunder were missing key players on Sunday, and their availability remains uncertain for Monday’s matchup:

Chet Holmgren (left ankle sprain) – Missed Sunday’s game, and his status remains questionable.
Isaiah Joe (lower back soreness) – Also sat out Sunday and could be a game-time decision.

For Houston, injuries are even more of a concern, as several key players are uncertain to play:

Fred VanVleet (ankle) – Returned Saturday but is already ruled out for Monday after re-aggravating the injury.
Steven Adams (left ankle), Dillon Brooks (right knee), Tari Eason (left lower leg), Alperen Sengun (lower back), Amen Thompson (right shoulder) – All are listed as questionable.

The Rockets made a roster move Sunday, waiving veteran Cody Zeller and signing Nate Williams to a four-year, $8.2 million contract.

What’s at Stake?

For Oklahoma City, a win would:

Keep their offensive momentum rolling as they return home.
Move them closer to securing a top seed in the Western Conference.
Give them confidence heading into a stretch where they play four of their next five at home.

For Houston, a win would:

Prove they can still compete defensively against an elite offense.
Help them gain ground in the tight Western Conference playoff race.
Provide a confidence boost before starting a three-game road trip.

Key Matchups to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Houston’s Defense
Gilgeous-Alexander has been unstoppable attacking the basket, and with Houston’s struggles guarding the pick-and-roll, expect him to be aggressive early.

Jalen Williams vs. Jalen Green
Williams is coming off a career-best performance, while Green is Houston’s top scoring option with VanVleet out. The battle of young stars could shape the outcome of the game.

Thunder’s Offense vs. Rockets’ Defensive Discipline
The Thunder have been lights-out offensively, but Houston has the defensive personnel to slow them down—if they play with discipline.

Will the Thunder Stay Hot, or Can Houston’s Defense Step Up?

With two contrasting styles clashing—OKC’s high-powered offense vs. Houston’s stingy defense—this game could come down to execution.

Will the Thunder’s explosive offense prove too much, or can the Rockets lock in defensively and pull off the upset?

The answer comes Monday night in Oklahoma City.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Picks and Predictions March 3rd 2025