Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks and Predictions December 29th 2024

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies December 29th 2024

At 7:00 ET, the Memphis Grizzlies will travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in a Western Conference matchup. The Thunder (-251) are favored by 7 points over the Grizzlies (+207). The over/under line for the game is currently set at 229.5 points.

Oklahoma City (25-5) is currently on a 10-game winning streak and is ranked 1st in the Western Conference. Memphis (22-10) is ranked 2nd in the West and has won two straight games.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Sunday, December 29th
• Betting Odds OKC -7, MEM +207 | OKC -251 O/U 229.5

The Grizzlies Can Win If…

Memphis improved to 22-10 on the season with a 132-124 road win over the Pelicans on Friday. The Grizzlies, who were favored by 7.5 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 256 points went over the 238.5-point line.

A key moment came when Memphis went on a 10-0 run, turning a 65-59 deficit into a 69-65 lead. They extended their lead to 104-88 by the end of the 3rd quarter before the Pelicans made a push in the 4th, outscoring Memphis 36-28.

The Grizzlies’ offense shone in their 132-124 win over the Pelicans, with Jaren Jackson Jr. leading the way, scoring 33 points and hitting 4 threes at a 66.7% clip. Ja Morant added 25 points, shooting 75% from deep and 72.7% overall from the field.

Memphis connected on 17 threes, shooting 41.5% from beyond the arc and 47.2% overall. Jackson scored 13 points in the 3rd quarter, while Morant added 15 in the 2nd.

Despite giving up 124 points, the Grizzlies managed to secure a win over the Pelicans. Their defense struggled in the 2nd and 4th quarters, allowing 36 points in each, but they held New Orleans to 25 points in the 1st and 27 in the 3rd. Overall, the Pelicans shot 44% from the field.

Memphis did well defending the three, holding New Orleans to 28% shooting with just 11 made threes. The Grizzlies also recorded 12 steals and 7 blocks in the game.

• In their last ten games away from home, the Grizzlies have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 8-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 127 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Grizzlies have a straight up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• Over their last three games, the Grizzlies have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

Oklahoma City improved to 25-5 on the season with a 106-94 win over the Hornets on Saturday. The Thunder were favored by 13.5 points but didn’t cover the spread, winning by 12. The game’s total points of 200 fell short of the 214-point over/under line.

Oklahoma City took control early, outscoring Charlotte 28-22 in the 1st quarter and 33-24 in the 2nd. They extended their lead to 90-74 after the 3rd quarter but were outscored 20-16 in the 4th.

In the Thunder’s win over the Hornets, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 22 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds, shooting 53.3% from the field. Jalen Williams added 20 points, while Aaron Wiggins contributed 17 points, hitting 3 threes at 42.9% efficiency.

Oklahoma City shot 47.7% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, making just 10 threes at a 26.3% rate. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 9 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters, while Wiggins put up 10 points in the opening period.

The Thunder’s defense was on point Saturday, holding the Hornets to just 94 points. Oklahoma City gave up 22 points in the 1st quarter and 24 in the 2nd. They allowed 28 in the 3rd but tightened up in the 4th, allowing only 20 points.

Overall, the Thunder held the Hornets to 36% shooting, including 32% from beyond the arc, where Charlotte hit 11 threes. Oklahoma City also grabbed 40 defensive rebounds, allowing 8 offensive boards, and recorded 9 steals.

• In their last ten games at home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 9-1 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have gone 7-2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 10-0.
• In their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-1-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Thunder is our pick to not only win with a projected score of 122-113. But we also favor them to cover the spread. Our bet is on the Thunder at -7.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 229.5, and our model predicts the Grizzlies and Thunder to score a combined 235 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Top Teams in West Square Off as Thunder, Grizzlies Battle

The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder are set to face off Sunday in Oklahoma City, marking the first meeting of the season between the Western Conference’s top two teams. Despite missing key players, both squads will look to continue their impressive stretches in what promises to be an intense showdown.

Grizzlies Face a Big Test Without Ja Morant

The Grizzlies (16-7) have thrived despite injuries this season, but they’ll be without star point guard Ja Morant, who is sidelined with a right AC joint sprain suffered in Friday’s 132-124 win over the New Orleans Pelicans. Morant, averaging 21.2 points and 7.9 assists in 20 games this season, has been instrumental in Memphis’ league-leading 59.7 drives per game.

Despite missing Morant for stretches earlier this season, Memphis is 8-4 without him and continues to show resilience under coach Taylor Jenkins. However, Sunday’s clash kicks off a challenging stretch in which the Grizzlies will face top-10 Western Conference teams in nine of their next 11 games.

Memphis has recently struggled with rim protection, a weakness Jenkins acknowledged after the win over the Pelicans.

“We got a little exposed at the rim with some fouls,” Jenkins said.

Improving their defensive interior play will be critical against Oklahoma City’s aggressive driving offense.

Thunder Ride Momentum into Crucial Homestand

The Thunder (19-4) enter the game on a 10-game winning streak, the franchise’s longest since January 2014. With a five-game homestand ahead, Oklahoma City looks to extend its winning ways despite dealing with its own injury issues.

Second-year center Chet Holmgren remains out with a foot injury, and key contributors Alex Caruso (hip), Luguentz Dort (ankle), and Cason Wallace (quad) were unavailable for Saturday’s 106-94 road win over the Charlotte Hornets.

Even with injuries, the Thunder have continued to thrive thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season. During the win streak, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 32.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, solidifying his place as the NBA’s second-leading scorer this season (30.8 points per game).

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault praised his team’s perseverance amid challenges.

“Every team goes through tough stretches, but that doesn’t make it easy,” Daigneault said. “The guys have had no excuses. They keep showing up and keep punching.”

Key Matchup: Paint Play and Driving Offense

Both teams excel in creating opportunities through drives. Memphis leads the league with 59.7 drives per game, while Oklahoma City is second at 58.7, driven largely by Gilgeous-Alexander’s NBA-best 21.4 drives per game.

Memphis must shore up its rim protection and avoid foul trouble to contain Gilgeous-Alexander and a Thunder squad that has capitalized on driving opportunities. Meanwhile, the Thunder’s success could hinge on their ability to defend the Grizzlies’ paint-oriented offense without key defenders like Dort and Caruso.

Who’s the MVP favorite? Check out NBA MVP Odds & Predictions!

What to Watch

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Dominance: Can the Thunder’s star maintain his scoring streak against Memphis’ tough defense?
• Grizzlies’ Resilience Without Morant: Will Memphis’ depth continue to shine, or will the absence of their star point guard prove too much to overcome?
• Thunder’s Homecoming: Playing back-to-back home games for the first time since mid-November, can Oklahoma City capitalize on its long-awaited homestand?