Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

The Pacers (-138) are favored by 2.5 points over the Heat (+117) in a matchup between two teams with losing streaks. Indiana has lost two straight and is 5-7 overall, while Miami has dropped three in a row and is 5-6 on the season. Tipoff is set for 5:00 ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

This Eastern Conference showdown can be seen on FDSI. The over/under line is currently set at 229 points.

Heat vs. Pacers Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
• Where: Indianapolis at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds IND -2.5, MIA +117 | IND -138 O/U 229

The Heat Can Win If…

Miami improved to 5-6 on the season with a 124-111 road win over the Pacers on Friday. The Heat, who were +4.5 point underdogs, not only pulled off the win but also covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 235, surpassing the O/U line of 228.5.

After trailing 29-26 at the end of the 1st quarter, Miami went on a 10-0 run to close the gap from 77-64 to 77-74. They took control by outscoring Indiana 35-26 in the 2nd quarter and 37-30 in the 3rd. The teams were even at 26 points each in the 4th quarter.

Bam Adebayo’s 30-point, 11-rebound performance led the Heat to a win over the Pacers, as he scored 16 points in the 4th quarter. Kevin Love also had a big final period, scoring all 15 of his points in the 3rd.

Miami hit 15 threes, shooting 35.7% from deep, while finishing at 51.7% overall. Adebayo made 2 threes at 66.7%, and Tyler Herro added 2 threes despite shooting 22.2% from beyond the arc.

Despite giving up 111 points, the Heat managed to secure a win against the Pacers on Friday. Miami allowed 29 points in the 1st quarter and 30 in the 3rd but held Indiana to 26 points in both the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Overall, the Pacers shot 51% from the field, including 40% from three with 14 made threes. The Heat sent Indiana to the line 11 times, where they made 9 free throws. Miami recorded 32 defensive rebounds, gave up 8 offensive boards, and finished with 16 steals.

• Miami has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 113 points per game while allowing 109. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Miami has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
• Over their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Pacers Can Win If…

The Pacers fell to 5-7 on the season after a 124-111 loss to the Heat on Friday. Indiana, favored by 4.5 points at home, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 235 exceeded the over/under line of 228.5 by 6.5 points.

Indiana led 29-26 after the 1st quarter, but a 35-26 2nd quarter by Miami shifted momentum. The Heat went on a 10-0 run, narrowing the score from 77-64 to 77-74, before pulling away with a 37-30 3rd quarter. Both teams scored 26 points in the 4th quarter.

Obi Toppin led the Pacers with 21 points, hitting 3 threes at a 60% clip and shooting 80% from the field overall in their 124-111 loss to the Heat. Tyrese Haliburton added 18 points and 8 assists, connecting on 4 threes at 44.4% efficiency.

The Pacers made 14 threes, shooting 40% from deep and 51.2% from the field. T.J. McConnell contributed 14 points, while Pascal Siakam scored 10 of his 14 points in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the Pacers struggled in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, giving up 35 and 37 points, respectively, in their 124-111 loss to the Heat. Overall, Indiana allowed Miami to shoot 51% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers held the Heat to 15 threes on 35% shooting. Indiana sent Miami to the line 23 times, where they converted 19 free throws. The Pacers finished with 31 defensive rebounds, 8 steals, and 4 blocks.

• Across their three previous home games, Indiana has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 102 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Pacers have a straight up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• In their last five games, the Pacers have an over/under record of 5-0 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +2.5, the Heat is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 229 and given that our model is projecting 255 points between the teams, we like the over.

Heat Eye Sweep of Pacers, May Get Jimmy Butler Back

The Miami Heat (8-6) will look to wrap up their six-game road trip with a flourish when they face the Indiana Pacers (5-9) on Sunday. Star forward Jimmy Butler, sidelined with a sprained ankle for three games, might make his return to help Miami clinch a weekend sweep over Indiana.

Heat’s Momentum Without Butler

Even without Butler, the Heat showcased their depth in Friday’s 124-111 victory over the Pacers. Bam Adebayo dominated with 30 points and 11 rebounds, while Tyler Herro added 20 points, highlighting Miami’s offensive versatility.

One standout performer was Kevin Love, who erupted for 15 points in the third quarter alone, going 6-of-8 from the field and adding seven rebounds, four steals, and two assists in just 12 minutes of play.

Miami shot an efficient 51.7 percent from the field and minimized late-game drama with a commanding 28-12 third-quarter run, stretching their lead to 22 points.

Coach Erik Spoelstra praised the team’s execution:

“You just try to stack as many good days, build your habits, build the process. We had a very good 24 hours.”

Will Jimmy Butler Return?

Butler’s potential return could add another layer of firepower to the Heat. Known for his leadership and clutch performances, Butler’s presence would provide a boost on both ends of the court.

If Butler suits up, Kevin Love may move back to his reserve role. Regardless of the rotation, Miami’s cohesion continues to be their hallmark.

Pacers Struggling to Find Defensive Answers

The Pacers enter Sunday’s game reeling from back-to-back losses, including Friday’s defeat where coach Rick Carlisle benched all five starters during a dismal third-quarter stretch.

Indiana shot 51.2 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, but defensive lapses cost them dearly. Guard Tyrese Haliburton, who contributed 18 points and eight assists, didn’t mince words:

“Defensive lapses, bad shots, bad turnovers … we let that dictate our defense.”

Bench forward Obi Toppin led the team with 21 points, while Carlisle shouldered the blame for the loss:

“It was embarrassing … I didn’t have these guys ready to play.”

Keys to the Game

1. Jimmy Butler’s Impact
   If Butler returns, expect Miami’s defensive intensity and playmaking to improve significantly.
2. Pacers’ Defensive Adjustments
   Indiana must tighten their defense to avoid another lopsided third quarter.
3. Miami’s Third-Quarter Energy
   The Heat have consistently used strong second-half starts to pull away in games.

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Prediction

Miami’s depth and recent momentum, coupled with the potential return of Jimmy Butler, make them favorites to sweep the weekend set. Unless the Pacers make drastic defensive improvements, they’ll struggle to contain the Heat’s balanced attack.

Final Score: Heat 115, Pacers 104