Phoenix-suns vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions December 25th 2024

Phoenix-Suns vs Denver Nuggets December 25th 2024

At 10:30 ET on ABC, the 5th-ranked Denver Nuggets (-140) will take on the 11th-ranked Phoenix Suns (+119) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line for this game is currently sitting at 234 points.

Denver (-2.5) comes into this game on a two-game winning streak and has a record of 16-11. Phoenix (-2.5) has lost three straight and is 14-14 on the year. This game will be played at the Footprint Center in Phoenix.

Nuggets vs. Suns Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
• Where: Phoenix at Footprint Center
• Date: Wednesday, December 25th
• Betting Odds DEN -2.5, DEN -140 | PHO +119 O/U 234

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets improved to 16-11 on the season with a dominant 117-90 win over the Suns on Monday. Denver, favored by 4.5 points, covered the spread with ease at home. The game’s total of 207 points fell well short of the 232.5-point line.

Denver took control with an 11-0 run, extending their lead from 43-35 to 54-35. They then outscored Phoenix 45-28 in the 3rd quarter and held them to just 11 points in the 4th.

Nikola Jokic’s 32-point performance, shooting 70.6% from the field and hitting 4 threes at 66.7%, led the Nuggets to a win over the Suns. Michael Porter Jr. added 24 points, connecting on 83.3% of his shots, including 2 threes at 50%.

Denver made 16 threes, shooting 39% from deep and 51.1% overall. Jokic scored 13 points in the 3rd quarter, while Porter had 14 in the 1st. Russell Westbrook added 9 of his 11 points in the 3rd.

The Nuggets’ defense was strong on Monday, holding the Suns to just 90 points. Denver gave up 26 points in the 1st quarter and 28 in the 3rd, but they tightened up in the 4th, allowing only 11 points. Overall, they held Phoenix to 39% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Suns hit 13 threes at a 39% clip. Denver sent Phoenix to the line 15 times, where they made 11 free throws. The Nuggets grabbed 35 defensive rebounds, giving up 9 offensive boards, and added 6 steals and 4 blocks.

• Although Denver has a straight up record of 2-1 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 128 points per game in these games.
• Across their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an overall record of 2-1 while going 1-2 against the spread.
• Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Suns Can Win If…

The Suns fell to 14-14 on the season after a 117-90 loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Phoenix, who were +4.5 point underdogs, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 207, well below the 232.5 O/U line.

Denver took control with an 11-0 run, stretching the score from 43-35 to 54-35. Phoenix couldn’t recover, as the Nuggets outscored them 45-28 in the 3rd quarter. The Suns managed just 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Denver added 17.

In their 117-90 loss to the Nuggets, the Suns shot just 39.8% from the field, though they connected on 39.4% of their threes, hitting 13 from deep. Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal each scored 23 points, with Beal knocking down 5 threes at a 71.4% rate.

Durant shot 53.3% overall, while Beal hit 52.9% of his shots. Beal scored 13 points in the 3rd quarter, while Durant added 10 of his points in the 2nd.

The Suns struggled defensively in the 3rd quarter, giving up 45 points, which contributed to their 117-90 loss to the Nuggets. Phoenix allowed Denver to shoot 51% from the field and 39% from three, where the Nuggets hit 16 threes.

Despite the defensive struggles, the Suns limited the Nuggets to just 11 free throw attempts, of which they made 9. Phoenix recorded 6 steals and 5 blocks in the game.

• In their last three games at home, the Suns have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 111 points per game in these contests.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Suns have a straight up record of 0-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 0-3.
• In their last three games, the Suns have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Suns come in as the underdog at +2.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 234, and our model predicts the Nuggets and Suns to score a combined 293 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Nuggets Brace for Tougher Rematch Against Suns

The Denver Nuggets look to complete a two-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns as the teams face off on Christmas night in Phoenix. After a commanding 117-90 victory on Monday, Denver expects a tougher challenge in the rematch.

Nuggets Riding Momentum

Denver (22-9) enters the matchup on a roll, winning five of its last six games, including Monday’s dominant performance. The Nuggets overwhelmed Phoenix in the second half, outscoring the Suns 62-39 and putting up a staggering 45 points in the third quarter.

Head coach Michael Malone praised his team’s performance while acknowledging the difficulty of repeating such a result.

“That was one of our more complete games of the season,” Malone said. “But we know playing Phoenix on Christmas night will be a much tougher challenge.”

Denver was led by Nikola Jokic, who scored 32 points on 12-of-17 shooting, and Michael Porter Jr., who added 24 points while making 10 of his 12 shots. The Nuggets dominated the paint, holding a 50-24 edge in points inside.

With star guard Jamal Murray (knee soreness) sidelined on Monday, reserve guard Jalen Pickett stepped up with 11 points and eight assists in 23 minutes off the bench. Murray remains questionable for the rematch.

“Just trying to keep the lead in the non-Nikola minutes,” Pickett said. “We felt like (the starters) got worn down last year, so we’re trying to take a little bit of the load off them this year.”

Suns Dealing with Injuries

The Suns (14-17) have lost three straight games and six of their last eight. The absence of star guards Devin Booker (groin) and Grayson Allen (concussion) continues to hamper the team. Both players have already been ruled out for the Christmas rematch.

Phoenix has struggled mightily without Booker, losing both games he missed this week. The team is 1-9 in games Kevin Durant has also missed this season.

Durant and Bradley Beal combined for 46 points in Monday’s loss, but the Suns received little offensive support, with no other player scoring in double figures.

Rookie forward Ryan Dunn acknowledged the challenges but emphasized the need for resilience.

“I think we have a next-man-up mentality,” Dunn said. “Injuries happen. It’s a long season. If you have that mindset, you’ll be all right.”

Keys to the Game

For the Nuggets:

• Maintain Defensive Intensity: Denver held Phoenix to 39.8% shooting on Monday and clamped down in the fourth quarter, allowing just 11 points. Repeating that defensive effort will be crucial.
• Paint Domination: With Jokic leading the way, the Nuggets’ advantage inside was a deciding factor in the first game.
• Bench Production: Players like Jalen Pickett must continue contributing to ease the load on the starters.

For the Suns:

• Step-Up Scorers: With Booker and Allen out, Phoenix needs contributions from players beyond Durant and Beal to keep pace.
• Improved Effort: As rookie center Oso Ighodaro noted, the Suns’ lack of intensity was their undoing in the first matchup. A more aggressive approach is necessary.
• Defensive Adjustments: Phoenix must find a way to contain Jokic and limit Denver’s points in the paint.

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Outlook

The Suns will look to bounce back on their home court, but the injuries to Booker and Allen leave Phoenix shorthanded. Denver’s depth, momentum, and dominance in the paint make the Nuggets the favorites to secure a Christmas Day victory.