Houston Rockets vs Charlotte Hornets Picks and Predictions October 23rd 2024

Rockets vs Hornets October 23rd 2024

At 8:00 ET, the Hornets (+220) will take on the Rockets (-268) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line is 229.5.

Last year, Charlotte went 21-61 and finished 13th in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Houston was 41-41 and finished 11th in the Western Conference.

Hornets vs. Rockets Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets
• Where: Houston at Toyota Center
• Date: Wednesday, October 23rd
• Betting Odds HOU -6.5, CHA +220 | HOU -268 O/U 229.5

The Hornets Can Win If…

The Hornets enter the season ranked 22nd in our power rankings, with a 30.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 5.6% chance of winning their division. Last season, Charlotte finished 21-61, placing 4th in their division and 13th in the Eastern Conference. They were 11-30 at home and 10-31 on the road.

Against the spread, the Hornets went 19-63, including a 9-32 mark at home. Their games averaged 223.4 points, and they had an O/U record of 43-39. As the favorite, they were 3-3, but they struggled as the underdog, going 18-58.

Ranked 22nd in our preseason offensive power rankings, the Hornets finished last season 28th in points per game (106.6). They were 25th in possessions per game (96.7) and field goal attempts per game (87.0), shooting 46.0% from the field (26th). Charlotte made 12.1 threes per game (23rd) on 34.0 attempts (17th), with a 35.5% success rate (21st). They were 30th in free throw attempts per game (18.4) but shot 78.6% from the line (11th). The Hornets also ranked 27th in offensive rebounds per game (9.3).

LaMelo Ball is projected to lead the team in scoring, ranking 33rd in our league-wide projections. He’s also projected to finish 5th in made threes. Miles Bridges, who averaged 21 points per game last season, is projected 39th in scoring, while Brandon Miller is 45th. Miller is also projected 12th in made threes. New addition Josh Green, who shot 47.9% from the field last season, adds depth to the wing.

Defensively, the Hornets are ranked 21st in our power rankings after finishing 22nd in points allowed last season, giving up 116.8 per game. They struggled to contain opposing shooters, allowing 49.6% shooting from the field, which ranked 28th in the NBA. Opponents shot 37.5% from three-point range against them, placing Charlotte 24th in that category.

On the boards, LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges are among the top rebounders at their positions, but the Hornets will be without center Mark Williams, their best shot-blocker. Last season, Charlotte ranked 29th in defensive rebounding and averaged 4.5 blocks per game, placing them 25th in the NBA.

• Through their last ten road contests, the Hornets offense has averaged 101 points per game while allowing an average of 114. Charlotte posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 3-7 ATS.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Charlotte has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 4-6 straight up.
• Over their last three games, the Hornets have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Rockets Can Win If…

Houston finished last season with a 41-41 record, placing 11th in the Western Conference. They were 9-7 in divisional games, finishing 3rd in the Southwest Division. This season, we have the Rockets ranked 12th in our power rankings, with a 57.4% chance of making the playoffs and an 8.3% chance of winning their division.

At home, the Rockets were 27-14 with a +5.3 scoring margin and a 26-15 ATS record. On the road, they went 14-27 straight-up and 11-30 ATS. As the favorite, they were 25-6, covering the spread in 21 of those games. Their average over/under line was 224.7 points, and they had a 42-40 O/U record, with their games averaging 227.5 points per game.

The Rockets enter the season ranked 15th in our offensive power rankings. Last year, they averaged 114.3 points per game, placing 16th in the league. Houston was 13th in possessions per game (99.2) and 5th in field goal attempts per game (91.0), but they ranked 27th in field goal percentage at 45.9%. They were 12th in three-point attempts per game (36.1) and 23rd in three-point percentage (35.2%), making 12.7 threes per game (14th). The Rockets were 5th in both free throw attempts per game (23.4) and offensive rebounds per game (11.5), and they shot 77.3% from the line, ranking 20th.

Jalen Green, who played all 82 games last season, is projected to lead Houston in scoring, ranking 30th in our league-wide projections. He’s also projected to finish 20th in made threes. Alperen Sengün, who averaged 21.1 points and 9.3 rebounds last season, is projected to be the Rockets’ second-leading scorer. Fred VanVleet is expected to lead the team in made threes, ranking 19th in our projections. Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard round out our top five projected scorers for Houston.

Coming off a season where they ranked 8th in our defensive power rankings, the Rockets allowed 113.2 points per game, placing them 14th in the NBA. They held opponents to 46.4% shooting, the 7th-lowest mark in the league, and were particularly effective against the three, allowing just 34.6% (2nd). Houston also averaged 7.8 steals per game, ranking 8th in the NBA.

Alperen Sengün and Jabari Smith Jr. are key rebounders, with Sengün ranking among the top 20 in blocked shots. Houston was 6th in defensive rebounding last season, but struggled in blocks, ranking 24th.

• In their last ten games at home, the Rockets have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 118 points per game in this stretch.
• The Rockets have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• In their last three games, the Rockets have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Rockets to secure the win, with an expected final score of 167-133. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -6.5.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 229.5 and our model has the Hornets and Rockets finishing with a combined 300 points. Our pick is to take the over.

ScoresandStats | The Edge You’ve Been Looking For

The Houston Rockets enter the 2024-25 NBA season with renewed energy and a clear focus on accelerating their pace of play. After a promising finish to last season, driven by young talent and key roster changes, the Rockets are poised to take a significant step forward. Their strategic shift to a faster offense, coupled with the return of key players like Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, has set the stage for a thrilling campaign.

On the other side, the Charlotte Hornets, although viewed as a bottom-tier team in many power rankings, are not without hope. With the ongoing development of their young core, they’re looking to surprise the league this season.

Houston Rockets: A New Offensive Identity

Last season’s devastating loss of center Alperen Sengun to knee and ankle injuries might have initially seemed like a setback, but it ended up being a catalyst for change. Sengun missed the final 18 games of the season, and during his absence, the Rockets discovered a new offensive rhythm. By leaning into a faster pace, they found their groove, led by breakout guard Jalen Green.

In those final games, Green stepped up, averaging an impressive 30.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists during an 11-game winning streak that helped fuel the Rockets’ playoff push. This new, high-octane offensive approach became the foundation of their identity going into the new season.

Rockets coach Ime Udoka acknowledges the change in philosophy and emphasizes the importance of this fast-paced approach. He’s fully aware, though, that the team needs to improve their handling and reduce transition turnovers that have plagued them, especially during preseason games.

“We understand playing at a faster pace, some of that is going to happen,” Udoka stated, referring to the growing pains associated with their up-tempo play. “But we’ve got to clean that up and have certain guys look a little more comfortable in transition when they’re pushing and handling it.”

Key Extensions for Sengun and Green

With their fast-paced offense now a central part of their strategy, the Rockets made a significant commitment to their core players ahead of the 2024-25 season. Alperen Sengun, the talented center, signed a five-year, $185 million extension, ensuring he will be a critical part of the team’s future. Despite not being known for his speed or athleticism, Sengun’s exceptional skill in the post adds versatility to Houston’s offensive plans.

Meanwhile, Jalen Green, the team’s primary offensive engine, signed a three-year, $105.3 million extension, affirming his role as a cornerstone of the franchise.

Challenges of Balancing Speed and Skill

One of the key challenges Houston will face this season is integrating Sengun into their new fast-paced system. Sengun excels as a post player, where the game slows down, requiring a level of patience and precision that contrasts with the faster tempo the Rockets now favor.

This balance between speed and the need for post-up opportunities will be crucial for Houston’s success. Transition turnovers during the preseason highlighted the learning curve involved in adapting their offense to include both fast breaks and half-court sets where Sengun can operate.

Still, the Rockets have a strong foundation to build upon. Their roster is loaded with young talent, including rising stars like Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, and Cam Whitmore. Adding in the experience of seasoned veterans like Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, and Steven Adams, the team appears well-rounded with the potential to make significant strides this season.

Rockets’ Goals for the Season

After clawing their way to a .500 finish last season, breaking a string of three consecutive losing seasons, the Rockets are poised to aim higher in 2024-25. The foundation they laid in the latter part of last season, combined with their youth and veteran leadership, has created a promising mix that could push the team to the playoffs.

Ime Udoka remains optimistic: “Continue to build on what we’ve been doing. Start to fine-tune on the things that worked well in the preseason.”

While the Rockets’ up-tempo play is still a work in progress, Udoka and his coaching staff are confident that with more time and discipline, their new system will yield the results they expect.

Charlotte Hornets: A Team on the Rise?

While the Houston Rockets are seen as a team ready to leap into playoff contention, the Charlotte Hornets remain in a rebuilding phase. Entering the season as a consensus bottom-five team, the Hornets face an uphill battle but are not without hope.

LaMelo Ball, the Hornets’ star point guard, has shown flashes of brilliance but has been held back by lingering ankle injuries. When healthy, Ball’s ability to create for himself and his teammates makes him one of the most exciting young players in the league. Alongside him is Mark Williams, the team’s 23-year-old center who also dealt with injuries last season but offers significant upside when on the court.

Another key piece of Charlotte’s future is Brandon Miller, the forward who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting last season. As he enters his sophomore year, Miller has focused on developing his two-way game, and his progress has been evident in preseason play.

Hornets coach Charles Lee praised Miller’s work ethic: “He’s taken his player development meeting to heart. All the areas we’ve hit him on on both sides of the ball, he’s aware of them, and he’s trying to be intentional about how he plays in addressing them.”

Miller has shown growth as a 3-point shooter, both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations, while also improving his playmaking skills. His ability to make better decisions offensively has been a bright spot for the Hornets in the preseason.

What to Expect When Rockets Face Hornets

As the Rockets host the Hornets in the season opener, the key storyline will be how Houston continues to refine their fast-paced offense while finding ways to incorporate Sengun’s unique skill set. The Hornets, despite being underdogs, will look to test Houston’s transition defense, with Ball leading the charge and Miller stepping into a more prominent role.

Houston will likely focus on pushing the pace and testing Charlotte’s defense with Jalen Green’s explosiveness and Jabari Smith Jr.’s versatility. Meanwhile, Charlotte will aim to exploit any Rockets’ turnovers and capitalize on Ball’s playmaking ability.

Conclusion

The 2024-25 season holds significant promise for both the Houston Rockets and Charlotte Hornets, albeit for different reasons. The Rockets are on the brink of becoming a playoff contender, with a young, talented roster backed by experienced veterans and a fast-paced, exciting offensive philosophy. For the Hornets, the focus remains on developing their young stars and staying competitive in the rebuilding process.

As both teams take the court on opening night, the outcome will provide valuable insight into how their respective strategies are shaping up. The Rockets, in particular, will aim to showcase their newfound identity while addressing the challenges that come with their fast-paced playstyle.