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Sacramento Kings vs Miami Heat January 6th 2025
At 10:00 ET, the Miami Heat will travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Kings are favored by 3.5 points and have won four straight games. The Heat are 17-16 and have lost two straight.
This non-conference matchup will be played at the Golden 1 Center and can be seen on NBCS. The over/under line for the game is 224 points.
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Heat vs. Kings Key Information
- Sport: NBA
- Teams: Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings
- Where: Sacramento at Golden 1 Center
- Date: Monday, January 6th
- Betting Odds SAC -3.5, MIA +141 | SAC -166 O/U 224
The Heat Can Win If…
The Heat dropped to 17-16 on the season after a 136-100 loss to the Jazz on Saturday. Miami, who were -8.5 point favorites, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 236, surpassing the O/U line of 224 by 12 points.
After a tied 1st quarter (22-22), the Jazz took control in the 2nd, outscoring Miami 40-19. By the 4th quarter, the Heat were down 98-66. A 10-0 run by Miami cut the score from 104-69 to 104-79, but the Jazz responded by outscoring them 38-34 in the final period.
In Saturday’s loss to the Jazz, the Heat managed just 100 points, shooting 43.8% from the field. Their three-point shooting was a major issue, as they hit only 9 threes at a 25.7% clip.
Nikola Jovic led Miami with 17 points, knocking down 3 threes at 60%. Duncan Robinson added 16 points, also hitting 3 threes, while Tyler Herro contributed 15 points and 6 assists.
The Heat’s defense started strong, giving up just 22 points in the 1st quarter, but they struggled the rest of the way, allowing 40 points in the 2nd, 36 in the 3rd, and 38 in the 4th, leading to a 136-100 loss to the Jazz. Miami couldn’t contain Utah’s shooting, as the Jazz hit 52% from the field.
From beyond the arc, the Jazz knocked down 19 threes at a 41% clip. The Heat sent Utah to the line 16 times, where they made 13 free throws. Miami finished with 27 defensive rebounds but allowed 16 offensive boards. They also recorded 9 steals and 7 blocks.
- In their last five games away from home, the Heat have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 108 points per game in this stretch.
- As the betting underdog, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
- Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
The Kings Can Win If…
The Kings improved to 17-19 on the season with a dominant 129-99 win over the Warriors on Sunday. Sacramento, who entered the game as +3.5 point underdogs, covered the spread and picked up the road win. The total points for the game ended at 228, just over the pre-game line of 225.
Sacramento jumped out to a 36-21 lead after the 1st quarter, but the Warriors responded with an 11-0 run, closing the gap to 40-39. The Kings then took control, outscoring Golden State 39-30 in the 2nd quarter and 30-24 in the 3rd, entering the 4th with a 105-75 lead. Both teams scored 24 points in the final quarter.
Malik Monk’s 26 points and 12 assists powered the Kings to a 129-99 win over the Warriors, with Monk hitting 5 threes at 62.5% efficiency. Domantas Sabonis added 22 points and 13 rebounds, shooting 76.9% from the field.
Kevin Huerter contributed 16 points, knocking down 4 threes at 66.7%. The Kings connected on 19 threes as a team, shooting 44.2% from deep and 51.7% overall.
The Kings put together a strong defensive performance on Sunday, holding the Warriors to just 99 points. Sacramento limited Golden State to 21 points in the 1st quarter and 24 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Defensively, the Kings held the Warriors to 12 made three-pointers on 34% shooting. Golden State went to the free-throw line 18 times, making 13. Sacramento also recorded 15 steals and 3 blocks.
- Through their last ten home games, Sacramento has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 5-5 while averaging 114 points per game.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Kings have a straight up record of 4-6. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-8.
- In their last three games, the Kings have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.
The Lean
Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +3.5, the Heat is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.
As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 224 and our model has the Heat and Kings finishing with a combined 227 points. Our pick is to take the over.
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Ascending Kings Vie to Beat Heat
The Sacramento Kings are riding a wave of momentum as they prepare to host the Miami Heat on Monday night, looking to secure a season sweep in their final meeting. Miami, however, faces an uphill battle, starting a six-game Western road trip without suspended star Jimmy Butler.
Kings in the Groove
The Kings are in high spirits, having won four straight games under interim head coach Doug Christie. Their latest victory was a statement-making 129-99 blowout over the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night, even with leading scorer De’Aaron Fox sidelined due to a bruised right glute.
Sacramento’s success has come from a combination of offensive firepower and improved defense. Malik Monk (26 points) and Domantas Sabonis (22 points) led the offensive charge against Golden State, but Christie highlighted the team’s defensive intensity.
“That is our identity; that is what we’re searching for,” Christie said. “Who wants the ball the most, who’s willing to go the furthest and get dirty?”
The Kings have held three of their last four opponents to 107 points or fewer, showcasing a newfound defensive edge. Sabonis, who had a double-double with 16 points and 16 rebounds in Sacramento’s buzzer-beating 111-110 win over Miami on Nov. 4, will be pivotal again.
DeMar DeRozan praised the team’s resilience: “The only way out of (the slump) was to stick together. I think that’s just where we’re at right now.”
Fox’s status remains uncertain, but the Kings have shown they can succeed without him.
Heat on a Downward Slide
The Heat are struggling to find their footing, having lost seven of their last nine games. They enter the matchup following a disheartening 136-100 home loss to the Utah Jazz on Saturday. Making matters worse, Butler remains suspended for conduct detrimental to the team, and his absence will loom large on this challenging road trip.
Miami’s Tyler Herro acknowledged the need to shift the team’s mindset: “(The Utah game) obviously wasn’t how we imagined it. You try to put this one past you and rally around each other for almost two weeks out on that road trip.”
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Herro, Miami’s leading scorer this season, will bear a heavier burden in Butler’s absence. He will need help from Bam Adebayo and the supporting cast to spark a turnaround against a Kings team firing on all cylinders.
Key Storylines
- Defense vs. Offense: Sacramento’s stingy defense will test Miami’s offense, which has been inconsistent in recent outings.
- Sabonis in the Spotlight: Sabonis is coming off a dominant performance and has a proven track record against the Heat.
- Fox’s Status: Sacramento’s ability to sustain its momentum may hinge on whether De’Aaron Fox can return to the lineup.
What’s Next
The Kings aim to solidify their identity under Christie, while the Heat look to regroup and salvage their road trip. Both teams will need to dig deep, but Sacramento’s recent form and Miami’s internal challenges suggest the Kings may have the upper hand.
