San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions January 4th 2025

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At 8:00 ET, the Denver Nuggets (-138) will take on the San Antonio Spurs (+116) in a Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets are currently favored by 2.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 237.5.

Denver is 19-14 and 5th in the Western Conference, while the Spurs are 18-16 and 8th in the West. The Nuggets are 2nd in the Northwest Division, and the Spurs are 4th in the Southwest Division.

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Nuggets vs. Spurs Key Information

  • Sport: NBA
  • Teams: Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
  • Where: San Antonio at Frost Bank Center
  • Date: Saturday, January 4th
  • Betting Odds DEN -2.5, DEN -138 | SA +116 O/U 237.5

The Nuggets Can Win If…

The Nuggets fell to 19-14 on the season after a 113-110 home loss to the Spurs on Friday. Denver, who entered the game as 6-point favorites, couldn’t cover the spread, and the total points of 223 fell short of the 238.5 O/U line.

Denver’s 10-0 run turned the game in their favor, but they couldn’t hold onto a 90-87 lead heading into the 4th quarter, as the Spurs outscored them 26-20 in the final period.

Nikola Jokić delivered a standout performance with 41 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists in the Nuggets’ 113-110 loss to the Spurs, scoring 18 of his points in the 3rd quarter. Michael Porter Jr. added 22 points, hitting 4 threes at a 50% rate, while Jamal Murray contributed 14 points despite shooting 35.3% from the field.

Nuggets ScoresAndStats

As a team, Denver connected on 15 threes, shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc, but struggled overall with a 43.3% field goal percentage. Christian Braun and Julian Strawther each chipped in 11 points, with Braun scoring 6 in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Nuggets improved as the game went on, allowing 32 points in the 1st quarter but tightening up in the 4th, where they gave up just 26 points. Overall, they allowed 113 points on 46% shooting from the Spurs.

Denver limited San Antonio to 13 made threes on 36% shooting from deep. They also sent the Spurs to the line 13 times, where they made 8 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 7 steals and 7 blocks.

  • Through their last three road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 121 points per game.
  • The last ten games that Denver was favored, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 6-4 straight up.
  • Over their last three games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Spurs Can Win If…

The Spurs improved to 18-16 on the season with a 113-110 win over the Nuggets on Friday. San Antonio picked up the road win as +6 point underdogs, and the game’s total of 223 points fell short of the 238.5 O/U line.

San Antonio took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring Denver 28-22, but the Nuggets responded with a 10-0 run, turning a 64-60 deficit into a 70-64 lead. The Spurs rallied in the 4th, holding Denver to 20 points while scoring 26 to secure the win.

Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs to a win over the Nuggets, scoring 35 points and grabbing 18 rebounds, shooting 63.6% from the field and hitting 4 threes at a 66.7% clip. Devin Vassell added 18 points, while Keldon Johnson contributed 16 points, making 3 threes at 50% efficiency.

Spurs ScoresAndStats

Wembanyama scored 13 points in the 2nd quarter and added 8 more in the 4th. Keldon Johnson also had a big 2nd quarter with 13 points, and Vassell scored 10 of his 18 points in the 3rd. The Spurs shot 46.5% from the field and made 13 threes at 36.1%.

Defensively, the Spurs shined in the 2nd and 4th quarters, giving up just 22 and 20 points, respectively, to help secure a 113-110 win over the Nuggets. Overall, they allowed 110 points on 43% shooting from the field.

San Antonio struggled to contain Denver from deep, as the Nuggets hit 15 threes at a 38% clip. The Spurs also sent Denver to the line 16 times, where they made 11 free throws. On the boards, the Spurs gave up 10 offensive rebounds.

  • Across the Spurs last ten home games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 5-5 straight-up.
  • Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Spurs have gone 4-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
  • In their last three games, the Spurs have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 3-0 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Spurs come in as the underdog at +2.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 237.5, and our model projects the Nuggets and Spurs to reach a combined total of 247 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

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Victor Wembanyama, Spurs Aim to Brush Aside Nuggets

The San Antonio Spurs will look to complete a midseason sweep of the Denver Nuggets when they host them on Saturday night, building on a thrilling victory the night before.

Wembanyama Dominates in Denver

Victor Wembanyama delivered an outstanding performance on Friday, posting 35 points and 18 rebounds to lead the Spurs to a 113-110 win in Denver. His efforts, paired with a clutch steal and layup by Devin Vassell in the final seconds, sealed the victory.

“We knew the ball was going to go to Jokic, and we wanted to crowd him and get it out of his hands, and that worked,” Vassell said. “We had a lull in the third quarter, but we stayed aggressive and made the plays down the stretch. We have to try to do that again (on Saturday).”

Vassell contributed 18 points, while Chris Paul added 11 assists, including a decisive layup with 54 seconds remaining that put San Antonio ahead for good.

Spurs on the Rise

San Antonio has won three of its past four games, marking a significant improvement and putting the team two games above .500 for the third time this season. Interim coach Mitch Johnson praised the team’s resilience, citing lessons learned during their recent road trip, where three losses came by a combined 10 points.

“This game should give us a reference point for future games,” Johnson said. (Friday’s win was) a great moment of growth for the team. We had a lot of players step up and play well for us. We have been working hard and getting better.”

The Spurs achieved Friday’s win despite the absence of forward Jeremy Sochan, who missed the game with a sore back. It ended a streak of seven games featuring San Antonio’s preferred starting lineup.

Wembanyama’s Historic Start

Friday marked Wembanyama’s 100th NBA game and his final one as a 20-year-old, with his 21st birthday on Saturday. His first 100 games have been historic:

  • Points (2,273): More than LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Carmelo Anthony.
  • Rebounds (1,053): More than Anthony Davis, Patrick Ewing, and Joel Embiid.
  • Blocks (366): More than Shaquille O’Neal, Dikembe Mutombo, and Hakeem Olajuwon.
  • 3-Point Shots (225): More than Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Trae Young.

“What he’s doing right now, I think he’s coming off a month of December that’s never been done before,” Denver coach Michael Malone said. “And it’s fun to watch a great player continue to get even better — which is scary at the same time.”

Nuggets Look to Rebound

Denver’s Nikola Jokic delivered a masterful performance with 41 points, 18 rebounds, and nine assists on Friday, but it wasn’t enough to secure the win. Michael Porter Jr. added 22 points, while Jamal Murray contributed 14.

The Nuggets, who had their three-game winning streak snapped, are still adjusting to the absence of forward Aaron Gordon, sidelined for five games with a right calf strain. Denver is 2-3 in that span.

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“The reality is, while AG is out, other guys have to step up,” Malone said. “I think they’re doing that a little more consistently as of late.”

What’s Next?

The Spurs will aim to maintain their momentum and continue climbing in the standings, while the Nuggets will look to bounce back and adjust to Gordon’s continued absence. Both teams have plenty to prove in this rematch of Friday’s high-stakes showdown.

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