San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions February 1st 2025

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat February 1st 2025

At 8:30 ET, the San Antonio Spurs (-121) will host the Miami Heat (+101) in a non-conference matchup. The Spurs are currently favored by 1.5 points, and the over/under line for the game is set at 224.

This game will be played at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, and it can be seen on FDSS.

Heat vs. Spurs Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs
• Where: San Antonio at Frost Bank Center
• Date: Saturday, February 1st
• Betting Odds SA -1.5, MIA +101 | SA -121 O/U 224

The Heat Can Win If…

Miami dropped to 23-23 on the season after a 126-106 home loss to the Cavaliers on Wednesday. The Heat entered the game as +6 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 232 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 225 by 7 points.

Miami fell behind early, trailing 31-21 after the 1st quarter and 28-20 in the 2nd. They rallied with a 43-point 3rd quarter, including a 10-0 run that cut the Cavs’ lead from 94-78 to 94-88. However, Cleveland pulled away in the 4th, outscoring Miami 32-22.

In their 126-106 loss to the Cavaliers, the Heat shot 47% from the field, with a below-average 34.9% from three-point range, hitting 15 threes overall. Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier each contributed 22 points, with Herro making 4 threes at a 40% clip.

Bam Adebayo added 21 points and 9 rebounds, shooting 53.8% from the field. Haywood Highsmith scored 10 of his 12 points in the 3rd quarter, while Herro added 11 points in the same period.

Defensively, the Heat struggled against the Cavaliers, giving up 126 points on 54% shooting. They allowed 31 points in the 1st quarter and 35 in the 3rd, with Cleveland scoring at least 28 points in every quarter.

Miami did well defending the three, holding the Cavaliers to 13 made threes on 31% shooting. They sent Cleveland to the line just six times, where they made five free throws. The Heat finished with 4 steals and 4 blocks.

• In their last ten games away from home, the Heat have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 107 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
• Over their last three games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Spurs Can Win If…

The Spurs improved to 21-24 on the season with a 144-118 win over the Bucks on Friday. San Antonio, who were +2.5 point underdogs, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total points of 262.5 exceeded the O/U line of 236.5.

San Antonio went on a 12-0 run early, extending their lead from 3-2 to 15-2. After a tight first half, the Spurs took control by outscoring the Bucks 45-30 in the 3rd quarter and 29-17 in the 4th.

In their win over the Bucks, the Spurs put up 144 points, shooting 49% from the field and hitting 24 threes at a 48% rate. Victor Wembanyama led the way with 30 points and 14 rebounds, connecting on 5 threes.

Keldon Johnson added 24 points, making 4 threes at 80% shooting, while Stephon Castle contributed 20 points, including 11 in the 3rd quarter. Wembanyama also scored 14 points in the 3rd.

Despite giving up 71 points in the first half, the Spurs tightened up defensively in the 4th quarter, allowing just 17 points to secure the win. Overall, they held the Bucks to 43% shooting from the field.

San Antonio limited Milwaukee to 12 made threes on 32% shooting from deep. The Spurs also recorded 7 steals and 11 blocks in the game.

• Across the Spurs last five home games, the team averaged 117 points per game while allowing 115. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• San Antonio has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• In their last three games, the Spurs have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re putting our money on the Spurs to win, and have the projected score sitting at 139-111. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Spurs at -1.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 224, and our model predicts the Heat and Spurs to score a combined 250 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Miami Heat Face Spurs Amid Rebounding Woes and Off-Court Turmoil

The Miami Heat head into Saturday night’s clash against the San Antonio Spurs looking to rebound—literally and figuratively. After a 126-106 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, Miami hopes to turn things around, but a mix of on-court struggles and off-court drama could make this matchup even more unpredictable.

Heat Struggling to Find Consistency

Miami has lost six of its last nine games, and Wednesday’s defeat exposed key weaknesses:

• Rebounding Woes: The Heat were outrebounded 47-35, despite having a sizable frontcourt.
• Defensive Issues in the Paint: Cleveland outscored them by 30 points inside, highlighting Miami’s lack of physicality.
• Poor Shooting Defense: The Cavaliers shot 54% from the field, taking advantage of Miami’s defensive lapses.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra emphasized that rebounding must improve, stating:

“There are no excuses now. We have to be a lot more physical and purposeful on the glass.”

With Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs’ athletic frontcourt up next, Miami’s rebounding concerns could be a decisive factor.

Terry Rozier’s Gambling Controversy Adds Distraction

As if Miami’s struggles weren’t enough, Terry Rozier has been linked to a federal sports gambling investigation concerning suspicious betting on his stats from March 2023, when he played for Charlotte. While he hasn’t been accused of any wrongdoing, the situation creates an unwanted distraction.

Rozier, who scored 22 points off the bench against Cleveland, declined to comment, stating:

“On advice from counsel, I can’t answer any questions about that matter.”

Despite the controversy, Rozier is expected to play against the Spurs.

Jimmy Butler’s Suspension Leaves a Leadership Void

The Heat are also dealing with the absence of star forward Jimmy Butler, who was suspended indefinitely after walking out of practice on Monday amid his ongoing trade demands. Butler’s situation has left Miami scrambling for leadership, adding to the instability surrounding the team.

Spurs Gaining Momentum Behind Wembanyama

On the other side, the San Antonio Spurs are coming off an impressive 144-118 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday. The victory was fueled by:

• Victor Wembanyama’s dominance: 30 points, 14 rebounds, and elite defensive play.
• Record-Breaking Shooting: The Spurs made a franchise-record 24 three-pointers, accounting for half of their total points.
• Stronger Fourth-Quarter Play: After struggling to close out games this season, San Antonio outscored Milwaukee 40-30 in the final period, reversing a worrying trend.

Spurs acting head coach Mitch Johnson praised Wembanyama’s approach against Giannis Antetokounmpo:

“He was expecting that kind of game, and he got it.”

With Keldon Johnson (24 points), Stephon Castle (20 points), and Harrison Barnes (16 points) stepping up, San Antonio looks like a much more dangerous team heading into Saturday’s game.

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Key Matchup to Watch: Miami’s Rebounding vs. Wembanyama

Miami’s ability to improve its rebounding will be crucial. If they allow Wembanyama to control the paint like he did against Milwaukee, the Heat could be in for another long night.

The Spurs’ three-point shooting is another factor—if Miami fails to defend the perimeter, San Antonio could break another shooting record.

Final Thoughts

The Heat enter this game as a team in turmoil, trying to fix rebounding issues while navigating off-court distractions. The Spurs, on the other hand, are building momentum behind Wembanyama and a record-setting offense.

With Miami’s internal struggles and defensive weaknesses, San Antonio has a prime opportunity to capitalize. Will the Heat rise to the challenge, or will the Spurs deliver another statement win?