Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

At 7:00 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (6-7) will travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (11-2) at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are currently favored by 5.5 points and have won three straight games. The over/under line for the game is set at 230.5.

This Western Conference matchup can be seen on KFAA. The Thunder are currently in first place in the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are in 10th place in the West. Dallas is also 3rd in the Southwest Division, while Oklahoma City is 1st in the Northwest Division.

Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds OKC -5.5, DAL +178 | OKC -213 O/U 230.5

The Mavericks Can Win If…

The Mavericks improved to 6-7 on the season with a 110-93 win over the Spurs on Saturday. Dallas, playing at home, covered the -13.5 point spread, and the game’s total of 203 points fell well short of the 229-point line.

After the Spurs went on a 10-0 run early, Dallas responded by winning the 2nd quarter 32-23 and dominating the 3rd quarter 38-18. The Mavericks led 93-69 going into the 4th, allowing them to cruise to victory despite being outscored 24-17 in the final period.

In their win over the Spurs, the Mavericks shot 46.8% from the field, with their three-point shooting struggling at 25.8%, hitting just 8 threes. Daniel Gafford and Kyrie Irving each scored 22 points, with Gafford shooting 90% and Irving adding 8 rebounds and 6 assists.

Irving scored 11 points in the 3rd quarter, while Gafford added 12 in the same period. Luka Dončić contributed 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists, making 3 threes at 33.3%.

The Mavericks put on a defensive clinic against the Spurs, holding them to just 93 points on Saturday. Dallas was particularly strong in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed only 18 points. Overall, the Mavericks limited San Antonio to 31% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Mavericks were just as effective, with the Spurs hitting only 11 threes at a 27% clip. Dallas also contributed 9 steals and 7 blocks in the game.

• Through their last five road contests, the Mavericks offense has averaged 114 points per game while allowing an average of 117. Dallas posted an overall record of 1-4 while going 1-3-1 ATS.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have gone 5-3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• Over their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-3-1 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

With a 99-83 win over the Suns on Friday, the Thunder improved to 11-2 this season. Oklahoma City, favored by 8 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 182 points fell well short of the 227.5 O/U line.

A 12-0 run early in the game helped the Thunder build a 28-10 lead. They held the Suns to 14 points in the 1st quarter and extended their lead by outscoring Phoenix 35-24 in the 3rd quarter. The Suns won the 4th quarter 23-16, but the Thunder’s defense held strong after entering the final period with an 83-60 lead.

The Thunder’s offense struggled in their win over the Suns, shooting just 39.6% from the field and 25% from three-point range, making 10 threes overall. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 28 points, including 15 in the 3rd quarter.

Luguentz Dort contributed 15 points and 9 rebounds, while Jalen Williams added 14 points and 8 boards. Isaiah Joe also chipped in 11 points, with 5 coming in the opening quarter.

The Thunder put on a defensive clinic against the Suns, holding them to just 83 points on Friday. Oklahoma City set the tone early, allowing only 14 points in the 1st quarter and keeping the pressure on throughout, giving up 22, 24, and 23 points in the remaining quarters.

Defensively, the Thunder limited the Suns to 29% shooting from the field, including just 9 made threes on 24% shooting. Oklahoma City also recorded 40 defensive rebounds, gave up 11 offensive boards, and added 6 steals and 11 blocks.

• When looking at their past five home matchups, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 116 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.
• In their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +5.5, the Mavericks is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 230.5, and our model projects the Mavericks and Thunder to reach a combined total of 238 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Thunder, Mavericks Seek Answers in Western Conference Showdown

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks are set to meet Sunday night in Oklahoma City for a Western Conference clash, with both teams navigating early-season questions despite strong performances. The game comes nearly six months after the Mavericks eliminated the Thunder in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, but both squads are focused on the present.

Thunder’s Small-Ball Success

Despite injuries to key big men Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder have surged to the top of the Western Conference standings with an 11-2 record. Coach Mark Daigneault has embraced a small-ball approach, maximizing the versatility of his roster.

“The playoffs are over,” Daigneault said. “We used that to learn more about our system, learn more about our players. Now it’s a new season.”

Oklahoma City has thrived in fast-paced, drive-heavy play, leading the NBA with 62 drives per game. However, their struggles at drawing fouls—ranking second-to-last in free-throw attempts (19.6 per game)—have frustrated Daigneault.

“It’s capping us offensively,” Daigneault said of their low free-throw numbers after a win against Phoenix where the Suns attempted 40 free throws to the Thunder’s 18. “Our guys are working too hard for us not to get rewarded.”

The Thunder will remain without Holmgren, who suffered a pelvic fracture that will sideline him for at least two months, and guard Alex Caruso, out with a hip strain for the third straight game.

Mavericks Address Rotation Questions

For the Mavericks, coach Jason Kidd is juggling rotation decisions, particularly at center. Rookie Dereck Lively II has started the past two games, taking over for Daniel Gafford, who opened the season as the starter. Kidd hinted at an evolving approach.

“If it was the ’80s, we would play them at the same time,” Kidd joked. “Unfortunately, it’s not the ’80s, so only one can play.”

The Mavericks snapped a four-game losing streak Saturday with a 110-93 victory over the San Antonio Spurs, giving them a much-needed boost heading into Sunday’s matchup. While the center rotation remains fluid, the Mavericks are finding ways to adapt behind the steady play of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Key Matchups and Storylines

• Thunder’s Drives vs. Mavericks’ Defense: The Thunder lead the NBA in drives per game but struggle to get to the free-throw line. Can the Mavericks’ defense limit their penetration without fouling?
• Center Rotation for Dallas: With Lively starting, will Kidd settle on a long-term solution, or will rotations continue to shift?
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Impact: The Thunder star remains the centerpiece of their offense. His ability to navigate Dallas’s defensive schemes will be pivotal.

Injury Report

• Thunder: Chet Holmgren (pelvic fracture) and Alex Caruso (hip strain) are out.
• Mavericks: The team remains healthy, with no notable absences reported for Sunday.

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Prediction

Both teams enter Sunday’s matchup with specific challenges to address. The Mavericks aim to build on the momentum of Saturday’s win, while the Thunder look to solidify their dominance atop the standings. With home-court advantage and their small-ball attack thriving, the Thunder may have the edge in this tightly contested game.

Prediction: Thunder 114, Mavericks 109