Toronto-raptors vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

The Miami Heat (-185) are favored by 4.5 points over the Toronto Raptors (+157) in this Eastern Conference matchup. The over/under line is set at 222.

Miami comes into this game with a record of 9-8 and has won two straight. The Raptors, on the other hand, are just 5-15 and sit in 13th place in the East.

Heat vs. Raptors Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors
• Where: Toronto at Scotiabank Arena
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds MIA -4.5, MIA -185 | TOR +157 O/U 222

The Heat Can Win If…

Miami moved above .500 for the season with a 121-111 win over the Raptors on Friday, improving to 9-8. Playing at home, the Heat were favored by 7.5 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 232 points exceeded the 219.5-point line.

A key 12-0 run helped the Heat take control, turning a 65-62 lead into 74-65. Miami’s defense clamped down in the 3rd quarter, holding Toronto to 23 points while scoring 38, and they entered the 4th quarter up 96-84.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 26 points and 6 assists in their 121-111 win over the Raptors, shooting 57.1% from the field and hitting 2 threes at a 50% clip. Tyler Herro added 23 points, knocking down 4 threes at 40% shooting, while Jaime Jaquez chipped in 15 points, hitting 2 threes at 50% and shooting 66.7% overall.

Miami made 21 threes in the game, shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc and 45.7% from the field overall. Butler scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter, while Herro also added 9 points in the period. Terry Rozier scored 9 of his 12 points in the 4th quarter.

Despite giving up 40 points in the 2nd quarter, the Heat’s defense held the Raptors to 111 points, thanks to strong efforts in the 1st and 3rd quarters, where they allowed just 21 and 23 points, respectively. Miami also limited Toronto’s trips to the free-throw line, with the Raptors making 14 of 17 attempts.

The Heat struggled overall, allowing the Raptors to shoot 53% from the field. However, they did a decent job defending the three, with Toronto hitting 11 threes at a 37% clip. Miami also recorded 10 steals in the game.

• Through their last five road games, Miami has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 3-2 while averaging 109 points per game.
• The last ten games that Miami was favored, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 7-3 straight up.
• Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.

The Raptors Can Win If…

The Raptors fell to 5-15 on the season after a 121-111 road loss to the Heat on Friday. Toronto entered the game as +7.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 232 points exceeded the O/U line of 219.5 by 12.5 points.

Toronto led 61-58 in the 3rd quarter before the Heat went on a 12-0 run, taking control of the game. The Raptors were outscored 38-23 in the 3rd quarter and couldn’t recover, despite a 27-25 edge in the 4th.

RJ Barrett led the Raptors with 25 points and 7 assists in their loss to the Heat, shooting 55.6% from the field and hitting 2 threes at 50%. Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl each added 24 points, with Barnes posting a triple-double with 10 assists and 10 rebounds. Poeltl was nearly perfect from the field, shooting 90.9%.

Toronto shot 53.8% as a team, connecting on 11 threes at a 37.9% rate. Barrett scored 9 points in the 2nd quarter, while Poeltl added 10 in the period. Ochai Agbaji contributed 7 of his 13 points in the 4th quarter.

Toronto’s defense struggled in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, giving up 38 points in each, leading to a 121-111 loss to the Heat. The Raptors allowed Miami to shoot 45% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Heat made 21 threes on 38% shooting. Toronto sent Miami to the line 17 times, where they hit 14 free throws. The Raptors finished with 36 defensive rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks.

• Across their last three home contests, Toronto has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 110 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Toronto has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• In their last five games, the Raptors have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Heat is our selection to secure the victory, with a projected score of 131-106. We also like them to cover the spread, so we suggest betting on the Heat at -4.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 222, and our model predicts the Heat and Raptors to score a combined 237 points. We recommend betting on the over.

Raptors Aim for Redemption on Home Court

The Toronto Raptors kick off a critical seven-game homestand Sunday night by welcoming back the Miami Heat. This rematch comes just two days after a disappointing 121-111 road loss to the Heat in an NBA Cup game. Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic sees the quick turnaround as an opportunity to make crucial adjustments.

“Playing the same team within 48 hours feels like a mini-playoff series,” Rajakovic said. “We’ll learn from the film and come back stronger.”

Key Takeaways From Friday’s Loss

Friday’s game slipped away in a disastrous third quarter for Toronto, where Miami outscored them 38-23. The Heat turned a three-point halftime deficit into a commanding 96-84 lead entering the final frame.

• Bam Adebayo’s Triple-Double Impact: Adebayo orchestrated Miami’s offense with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.
• Scottie Barnes’ Standout Performance: Barnes responded with his own triple-double (24 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists), but turnovers and defensive lapses plagued the Raptors.

Turnovers and 3-Point Shooting:

• Toronto committed 19 turnovers, leading to 27 Heat points.
• Miami buried 21 3-pointers, while the Raptors managed just 11.

“Our turnovers and their shooting were the biggest difference in the game,” Rajakovic admitted.

Adjustments for Sunday’s Clash

Rajakovic highlighted transition mistakes and imprecise passing as key issues to address.

“We tried to punish them in transition, but our passes weren’t sharp enough,” he explained.

The Raptors will also need to close out on Miami’s perimeter shooters, who fueled the Heat’s 19-5 late-third-quarter run on Friday. Reserve Jaime Jaquez Jr. hit two crucial 3-pointers during that surge and finished with a season-high 15 points.

Heat’s Versatility on Display

Miami is riding high, having won four of its last five games. The Heat showcased their depth Friday, with Jimmy Butler (26 points), Tyler Herro (23 points), and Jaquez all stepping up in pivotal moments.

Bam Adebayo’s Playmaking Role:
Adebayo’s consecutive games with double-digit assists highlight his evolution as a facilitator.

“We want him to put pressure on the defense at the rim,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “When Bam gets 10 assists, a lot can go wrong for the opposing defense.”

What’s at Stake

The Raptors, sitting at 4-4 at home this season, will look to capitalize on the comforts of Scotiabank Arena to start their homestand on the right foot.

Meanwhile, the Heat, 5-4 on the road, aim to extend their strong form and climb higher in the Eastern Conference standings.

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Key Matchups to Watch

• Bam Adebayo vs. Jakob Poeltl: Adebayo’s passing and scoring will test Poeltl’s ability to protect the rim. Poeltl had 24 points and 10 rebounds in Friday’s game.
• Perimeter Defense: Toronto must contain Miami’s shooters, including Herro and Jaquez, to avoid another 21 3-pointer performance.
• Scottie Barnes’ Playmaking: Barnes needs another all-around performance to give Toronto an edge.

Prediction

With adjustments in defensive focus and transition efficiency, the Raptors have a chance to flip the script in front of their home crowd. However, Miami’s depth and Adebayo’s versatility pose a significant challenge.

Final Score Prediction: Raptors 114, Heat 110