Alabama Crimson Tide vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Picks and Predictions March 23rd 2025

Mark Sears Leads Alabama Against Defensive-Minded Saint Mary’s

Second-seeded Alabama and seventh-seeded Saint Mary’s are preparing for a thrilling East Region second-round matchup on Sunday in Cleveland. Both teams survived a nail-biting first round and are looking to advance to the Sweet 16.

Alabama’s Offensive Power Led by Mark Sears

The Crimson Tide (26-8) fought off a valiant effort from Horizon League champion Robert Morris to claim a 90-81 victory on Friday. Mark Sears shined with 22 points and 10 assists, while Grant Nelson, recovering from a knee injury, made a crucial seven-minute contribution to help secure the win.

“We’re not going home, put me in,” said Nelson, demonstrating his commitment to the team despite the injury. Coach Nate Oats praised his determination, emphasizing the importance of Nelson’s presence, especially with Saint Mary’s presenting a much more physical challenge in the paint.

Sears has been the heartbeat of Alabama’s offense, averaging 18.8 points and 5.1 assists per game. Meanwhile, Nelson, the team’s top rebounder with 7.5 boards per game, is crucial for maintaining inside presence and second-chance opportunities.

If Nelson is limited, Alabama may rely on its smaller, quicker lineup, featuring sharpshooters Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway, who average 10.6 and 11.2 points per game, respectively.

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Saint Mary’s Relentless Rebounding Approach

The Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) are riding high after a gritty 59-56 win over Vanderbilt. Known for their defensive toughness and dominance on the boards, the Gaels showcased their signature style by out-rebounding their opponents 41-28.

Mitchell Saxen, standing at 6-foot-10, was a force inside, pulling down 11 rebounds, including a critical offensive board in the final minute. His effort earned a trip to the free-throw line, which proved pivotal as Vanderbilt was forced into a contested 3-pointer on their last possession.

“A big part of the rebounding for us is attrition,” said Gaels coach Randy Bennett. “We just keep coming, keep coming, keep coming.”

The Gaels feature a physical frontcourt with Saxen (6-foot-10, 250 pounds) and Harry Wesseis (7-foot-1, 275 pounds). Their ability to dominate the paint and control the boards has made them one of the nation’s best in offensive rebounding percentage.

In addition to their big men, the guards are equally committed to crashing the boards. On Friday, Luke Barrett grabbed 10 rebounds, Augustas Marciulionis pulled down eight, and Jordan Ross secured three, including the game-winning rebound.

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Key Matchup: Rebounding Battle and Defensive Grit

The biggest challenge for Alabama will be overcoming Saint Mary’s relentless rebounding and tough interior defense. The Crimson Tide’s offense thrives on quick ball movement and perimeter shooting, but the Gaels’ ability to limit second-chance points could be a game-changer.

With Saxen and Wesseis protecting the paint, Alabama may need to stretch the floor and hit shots from beyond the arc to open up lanes for Sears and Holloway.

On the flip side, Saint Mary’s will look to wear down Alabama inside, taking advantage of their size and physicality. Whether Grant Nelson can play significant minutes could dictate the outcome of this battle.

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Prediction and Best Bets

This game promises to be a contrast of styles, with Alabama’s high-octane offense pitted against Saint Mary’s methodical, physical approach. The Crimson Tide’s ability to knock down threes and maintain tempo will be crucial against the Gaels’ grinding defensive schemes.

Final Score Prediction:

• Alabama 74, Saint Mary’s 67
• Best Bet: Alabama -4.5

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